This is from this morning National Weather Service:
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0550
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
413 AM EDT SUN OCT 04 2015AREAS AFFECTED…NORTHEAST GA…SC…SOUTHEAST NC
CONCERNING…HEAVY RAINFALL…FLASH FLOODING LIKELY
VALID 040813Z – 041413Z
SUMMARY…HISTORIC RAINFALL EVENT CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
CAROLINA THIS MORNING WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES EXPECTED.
WIDESPREAD AND SERIOUS FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY TO REMAIN A
PROBLEM THROUGH 10 AM.DISCUSSION…A HUGE MOISTURE PLUME FEEDING INTO THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. HAS MOVED VERY
LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. TREMENDOUS MID AND UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN THIS PLUME IS ALLOWING FOR VIGOROUS ASCENT
IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH 1.8 TO 2.3 INCH PW VALUES. SOME OF THIS
MOISTURE IS ORIGINATING FROM HURRICANE JOAQUIN. MUCAPE VALUES OF
1000-2000 J/KG NEAR THE SC COAST ARE HELPING TO FURTHER ENHANCE
RAINFALL RATES. A COASTAL FRONT NEAR THE SC/NC COAST REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY AND IS ACTING AS THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WITH
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL RATES. THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
MAY PIVOT TOWARDS SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA BORDER BY MID MORNING.HI RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 3-6″ ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THIS REGION OVER THE NEXT SIX HOURS, AND COULD FALL AT
RATES OF UP TO THREE INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES. THESE TYPES OF
RAINFALL RATES ARE LIKELY TO CREATE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS IN URBAN
AREAS SUCH AS CHARLESTON, GREENVILLE/SPARTANBURG, COLUMBIA, AND
AUGUSTA. RADAR ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN RUNNING ABOUT 30 TO 50% TOO
LOW OVER THIS REGION OWING TO EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION IN A
HIGH PW ENVIRONMENT. THE GROUND IS COMPLETELY SATURATED ACROSS
NORTHEAST GA AND MOST OF SC WHERE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT. CONSIDERING THE RAINFALL EXPECTED, COMBINED WITH WHAT
HAS ALREADY FALLEN, MAJOR TO LOCALIZED CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE LANDSLIDES AND MUDSLIDES IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF SC AND GA REMAIN AN ONGOING CONCERN.HAMRICK
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Three inches of rain per hour. That’s….. Biblical apocalypse level. Any bets on Obama being blamed tomorrow for what he did and did not do about the event?
Does SC accept climate science?
They accept business, yell about government, hate the Federal money sucking. And will be first in line after the storm to want a handout.
“SOME OF THIS
MOISTURE IS ORIGINATING FROM HURRICANE JOAQUIN.”
So where is the rest of the moisture coming from? I am confused…
Harry, there already was a huge low pressure system that would have dropped rain in the SE. This low pressure system got positioned in part from effects of the tropics in a way that concentrated that rain. The, an interaction developed, called a “Predecessor Rain Event.” This is where moisture from the tropics, which is very much enhanced in the area by never before observed record high sea surface temperatures, goes out front of the hurricane and interacts with existing low pressure systems.
This is moving a huge amount of moisture to the region without the hurricane itself ever actually going there.
NBC News meteorologist Bill Karins said the National Weather Service was referring to the South Carolina rains as a “once in 200 years rainfall event” and that they could be as bad as a once in 500 years phenomenon.
Did we have global warming 200 and 500 years ago?
I wasn’t aware it was an issue back then.
“Did we have global warming 200 and 500 years ago?”
How the bloody hell is it possible you do not know that answer to that odd question? Is your Internet access restricted, or are you just…. well, let’s not go there. Seriously, if you have Internet, you should know the answer.
It looks like the normal weather continues in South Carolina. At least, there’s been no change in the government in there, so I think this is a safe political argument.
Record rainfall and flooding is also hitting southern France
http://www.euronews.com/2014/09/30/record-rainfall-wreaks-havoc-in-france/
See Noevo.
What you ask is irrelevant, and probably a non-sequitur. The once in 200 or 500 year event is a way of showing how rare the event is, the 200 or 500 years is an average.
It has nothing to do with what happened 200 or 500 years ago.
“What you ask is irrelevant, and probably a non-sequitur”
No, it’s an indication of his lack of knowledge – he’s never studied any science or mathematics (but amazingly feels fully qualified to comment on how they are always wrong).
“No, it’s an indication of his lack of knowledge – he’s never studied any science or mathematics (but amazingly feels fully qualified to comment on how they are always wrong).”
“See Noevo” and his ilk (for lack of a better word at the moment) do not know that they do not know enough about climatology to ask what Sir Isaac Newton called “the prudent question.” Or as Pauli said “Das ist nicht nur nicht richtig, es ist nicht einmal falsch!”
Climate Division Two, New Mexico, has seen three “fifty-year floods” in the past five years (and the current governor has stated this isn’t really happening). “See Noevo” will now no doubt wail “But that adds up to 150 years!”
To Desertphile #9:
Allow me to be more specific:
Did we have MAN-MADE global warming/climate change 200 and 500 years ago
[or 1,000 years ago – some are calling this a once-in-a-thousand year event]?
I’ve googled but I haven’t found the answer.
The reason I ask is that I figure big hurricanes and rains like this have happened in the distant past and I wanted to know if man was the cause of those also.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/10/05/the-meteorology-behind-south-carolinas-catastrophic-1000-year-rainfall-event/
See Noevo, it does not work that way. Not even a little. Surely you can see this, right?
To Greg Laden #15:
Me: “Allow me to be more specific:
Did we have MAN-MADE global warming/climate change 200 and 500 years ago [or 1,000 years ago – some are calling this a once-in-a-thousand year event]?
I’ve googled but I haven’t found the answer.
The reason I ask is that I figure big hurricanes and rains like this have happened in the distant past and I wanted to know if man was the cause of those also.”
You: “See Noevo, it does not work that way. Not even a little. Surely you can see this, right?”
No, Greg, I don’t think I see.
Do the scientists believe that such rains happened 200 – 1000 years ago, or not?
Or, are they just saying the chances of such rains happening in a given year are 0.100% to 0.500%? If so, why don’t they just say that?
sn, people who have actually learned something as they passed through schools already knew what phrases like that meant. Perhaps if you had ever studied science or math past the 3rd grade level – hell, anything past that level – you would too.
http://water.usgs.gov/edu/100yearflood.html
So much again for typing on a phone. That link is for floods but the interpretation is the same.
S.N. is actually much, much simpler; he just incompetently goes through the motions for the sake of attention. There are two basic concepts that underlie his entire trip:
1. Nothing really bad can happen to the planet, because the Second Coming.
2. Climate change is isomorphic to evolution.
In practice, this amounts to, e.g., hanging around Breitbump a lot and substituting it for thought.
Family members outside of Charleston received 145% of the NWS 1000 year, 96 hour rainfall for the area. So what’s that… a 10,000 year storm? Or is time to ditch these very long-term forecasts of extreme meteorological events?
Meteorologists and climate scientists… such alarmists.
Not that it matters much to this, but humans started altering the GHGs in atmosphere with agriculture (CO2) 7000+ years sgo and then CH4 with rice paddies ~5000. By now CO2 “should” have been down to ~240-250ppm.
Ruddiman and co.
@19. Magma : Umm.. did ..did you really confuse the standard ‘Once in X years’ indictator of the frequency of extreme weather events with actual forecasting i.e. in 10,000 years will get a flood this big? Presumably on Tuesday afternoon 10,2015 CE!
Seriously?
Also if you see a huge problem coming in , pretty much any field really, aren’t you ethically obliged to raise the alarm?
If say you see a house on fire or an iceberg in front of your boat, do you think its admirable to just ignore it and pretend it isn’t real or a problem until say the house is burnt to the ground with all occupants inside or the ship sunk and lost with all hands?
@ StevoR:
That’s two posts in a row where you’ve replied to a comment of mine that you’ve entirely misunderstood. Please refrain from commenting on them until you figure out my writing style and tone… or feel perfectly free to skip over them.
Or you could maybe be clearer or add a sarc tag to avoid confusion?
Sorry but if I am confused maybe its Poes law at work and if you write in a style that is satirical maybe you need to allow for the fact that people are going to get fooled by it at times.
If that was satire then, well done I guess. Got me.
It is quite possible that my poor abused sarcasm detectors and irony meters have gone on the blink after too much blogging on this topic over the years! Bought new ones just the other day and all but just get through so many these days! Sigh.
Speaking of “100-year” precipitation events,
here’s one from around a hundred years ago:
http://www.history.com/news/the-superstorm-that-flooded-america-100-years-ago
Just imagine how bad it would have been with today’s SUVs!
sn, some people would say you have to work hard to appear so stupid and out of touch. I have faith however – I believe it comes naturally.