Super Typhoon Hagupit is on its way to the Philippines. The image above shows the storm track for Typhoon Haiyan, which was a very damaging super Typhoon that came through the same area last year, and served as an example of climate change making things worse. The smaller map is the Japan Meteorological Agency’s prediction of Hagupit’s path. They are very very similar.
Hagupit will not likely be as strong as Haiyan (see details here) because the region does not have the extra warm deep water that supercharged Haiyan. But Hagupit is still going to be a bad storm.
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Links to books and other items on this page and elsewhere on Greg Ladens' blog may send you to Amazon, where I am a registered affiliate. As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases, which helps to fund this site.
“Deep water”? Not surface water?
Deep water. But deep in relation to the surface, not “big deep” deep.
Tropical cyclones develop with surface waters of some 80F or so, but as they form and move along, they cause mixing near the surface so the part of the sea surface that the front part of the storm is over has been churned up and is now likely lower than that threshold, or at least, cooler. With some recent storms, water was over 80F at depth of 100 or even 200 meters. This means that the cooling caused by churning essentially doesn’t happen and the hurricane can grow much stronger.
Here’s what iHagupit looks like in real time on the X cellent Earth satellite imagery site — just rotate the globe to the Philipine side and zoom in .
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-201.39,3.69,244
Wow.