Monthly Archives: July 2013

Power Infrastructure and Climate Change: US Gov. Report

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The US Department of Energy has released a report about vulnerabilities of the US Power system in relation to climate change.

The report, nicely summarized in this piece at the New York Times, does not merely cover outages caused by storms. Rather, it discusses the vulnerability of the entire power system to alterations in our weather caused by anthropogenic climate change.
 

Increasing temperatures, decreasing water availability, more intense storm events, and sea level rise will each independently, and in some cases in combination, affect the ability of the United States to produce and transmit electricity from fossil, nuclear, and existing and emerging renewable energy sources. These changes are also projected to affect the nation’s demand for energy and its ability to access, produce, and distribute oil and natural gas…

 
To summarize the report: Coal and gas burning power plants will have shortages of water necessary for cooling and may suffer partial or full shutdowns. Coastal energy infrastructure will be shut down, damaged, or put out of commission for various lengths of time because of sea level rise and intense storms. As much as we love to hate fracking, we should note that fracking uses a lot of water and with water shortages natural gas and oil from that source will be curtailed. We hope we are smart enough to put large scale solar, wind, and bio fuel generation facilities where there is appropriate wind and sun. But with climate change, the sunniness and windiness patterns are shifting, so we can easily get that wrong. Electricity transmission systems ten to get blotto’ed because of big storms, and flooding and drought can affect both rail and boat transport systems. Near shore oil and gas operations in the ARctic region are being messed up by melting permafrost. As temperatures increase, electricity-hungry cooling increases demand on an already overstressed infrastructure.

720 sq km Ice Block Falls Off Antarctica

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The Pine Island Glacier, in West Antarctica, drains (as ice and water) a measurable percent of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. It is probably the case that glaciers in this area of the Antarctic contribute more of the ice to water transition than any other glacial region in the world, so how they melt is of great interest. And now, Pine Island Glacier has given birth!

In October 2011 a large crack started to form across the glacier, downstream from its grounding line. Over the last few days, it seems, this crack finally transected the entire glacier, causing the down-stream side of it to become a 720 square kilometer ice berg. That is nothing like the largest ice berg ever (that would be B-15, which calaved in March 2000, at 11,000 square kilometers, and still melting).

Is this important?

The calving of an ice flow like this, in and of itself, is normal. Glaciers in the interior of Antarctica grow because more snow falls than melts/evaporates. The weight of this ice pushes the glaciers downstream in giant frozen rivers. Somewhere along the way, beneath these giant rivers of ice, we often find water for a long distance, then a “grounding line” where the ice touches the surface of the earth. Beyond the grounding line there is an “ice shelf” of floating ice (not the same thing as sea ice) that can extend a pretty good distance into the sea. Every now and then a large piece of one of these shelves breaks off, like just happened in this case, and floats off into the sea.

This is important because the calving of giant ice bergs beyond grounding lines of huge glacial rivers is part of the process of the ice to sea transition that is constantly going on with glaciers. Glaciers also have smaller scale calving of ice bergs, and plain old melting especially during warm months. All these things together make up the melting half of the formula for glaciers, the other half of the formula being the formation of new ice on glacial surfaces.

We assume the worlds’ glaciers are all either melting or going to melt to some degree because of increased temperatures due to anthropogenic global warming, and this assumption is born out by the fact that so many glaciers are getting smaller. The balance of new ice and melted ice is generally, but not always, in the direction of overall reduced ice. This contributes additional water to the world’s oceans, and is a major (and growing) contributor to global sea level rise. Global sea level rise may be the most important negative outcome of anthropogenic climate change, given that so many people live near the sea, and in fact, a lot of the world’s agriculture is carried out at relatively low elevation. Also, storms that flood the coast do more flooding when the sea level rises, with storm surges taking modest (a few inches here, a few inches there) rises in sea level to create much higher levels of inundation.

One problem we have is that modeling of future glacial melt is very difficult, and many feel that we are pretty much in the dark as to how fast glaciers will melt given various warming scenarios.

So, the Pine Island Glacier calving event that just happened is an important data point to add to the other large scale events to try to understand the rate of glacier melt.

There is a serious concern when it comes to Pine Island Glacier and similar systems, like the much larger nearby Thwaites Glacier. The two of these impound about 20% of the water in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, which in turn is between 8 and 9 meters of sea level rise were it all to melt. This has to do with a complex interaction between glacial geometry, movement, and the presence of water underneath the ice that provides lubrication for this movement. Some time ago one researcher called the Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers the “weak underbelly” of the Antarctic glacial system. Very briefly, and I oversimplify, the shapes of these two glacial basins is such that they are more likely than other glaciers to speed up their march to the sea, to well exceed their growth from fresh precipitation. This problem is summarized in detail HERE, and recent research confirming that we should be concerned about this is to be found HERE.

So, this is an interesting event, and it might be a very important event. I’ll report back after digesting reaction and commentary by glacier experts over the next few days.

Quebec Derailment Fire/Explosion Visible from Space

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Nasa Earth Observatory has a photograph of the recent derailment of a train of Bakken Crude burning and/or exploding in a small town in Quebec.

The image "was acquired at 6:59 GMT (2:59 a.m. local time) on July 6 by the instrument’s “day-night band,” which detects light in a range of wavelengths from green to near-infrared and uses filtering techniques to observe signals such as city lights, auroras, fires, and reflected moonlight. The image on the left, shown for comparison, was acquired by the same instrument on July 4, before the derailment. Light sources are not as crisp in the July 6 image because of cloud cover."
The image “was acquired at 6:59 GMT (2:59 a.m. local time) on July 6 by the instrument’s “day-night band,” which detects light in a range of wavelengths from green to near-infrared and uses filtering techniques to observe signals such as city lights, auroras, fires, and reflected moonlight. The image on the left, shown for comparison, was acquired by the same instrument on July 4, before the derailment. Light sources are not as crisp in the July 6 image because of cloud cover.”

The death total from this event is still unknown. I believe there are about 13 known dead but several are missing and believed to have been incinerated to the point where they may not be found.

We don’t know the full story yet, but it appears that the derailment may have been caused because the break system on the train was turned off by first responders who had come to put out a small fire, and in so doing, turned off the train’s engines. The engines were idling to power the break system, necessary because the train was parked on a grade. It would appear (this is a guess so far) that the oil cars tugged down slope and detached from the engine. This track is normally used at low speeds, between 5 and 10 mph or so, but the oil cars came into town at about 30mph, derailed, smushed together and caught on fire.

We do not know if pipelines are safer than rail (or other) transport of oil and other flammable materials. My guess is that while both systems would likely have very different problems, one may well be safer than the other, and one may be more energy efficient than the other (and one would involve more labor than the other). We are starting to see arguments that since rail is more dangerous (which it may or may not be) we should therefore build the Keystone XL pipeline. But this is like saying that since trained soldiers are better at operating weapons than others, we must therefore go to war. That’s crazy talk and I hope everyone gets that.

Anyway, it’s always interesting when something happens on Earth that can be seen from space. So there you go.

Faith-Based Pseudo-Science

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A Panel at CFI’s Women in Secularism panel featuring Sarah Moglia, campus organizing communication specialist, SSA; Carrie Poppy, animal rights activist, podcast co-host of “Oh No, Ross and Carrie!”; Amy Davis Roth, artist, blogger at “Skepchick”; and Rebecca Watson, co-host of “Skeptics’ Guide to the Universe,” creator of “Skepchick“. The panel is moderated by Desiree Schell, activist, podcast host of “Skeptically Speaking”

Climate Disconnect

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Thought you might be interested in this:

On July 9, 2013, Rep. Henry A. Waxman released a report comparing the impacts of climate change in members’ districts with members’ voting records. The report found a widespread “climate disconnect” in the voting records of the Republican members representing the districts most affected by the soaring temperatures in 2012. They cast anti-climate votes 96% of the time. No similar “climate disconnect” was found in the voting records of House Democrats. The report is available here.

HERE is an interactive map that provides record temperature information for each congressional district in the country and the climate voting record of the member representing the district.

Arctic Sea Ice Melt Speeds Up

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Earlier in the northern summer, it looked like the rapid melt of Arctic Sea ice we’ve been seeing over the last several years was happening again, but rather than being a record year, it was merely tracking along the lower side of the distribution of the long term average. Last year, in contrast, the amount of sea ice hit an all time low early in the year and then broke previous records into tiny icy pieces.

One of the reasons last year’s ice melt was so dramatic is that an early storm churned up the ice and got melting going a bit early.

This year, there was no early churning up event, but over the last several days of June and beginning of July, the rate of sea ice melt has suddenly increased dramatically and this year’s track is looking like it may come close to catching up to the previous year’s unprecedented extreme.

To give you an idea, I’ve got three figures I made by taking screen shots from the Chartic Interactive Sea Ice Graph (here).

This interactive chart uses the high quality data from 1979 to the present to produce a spread (the gray area) showing the range of ice at two standard deviations. Here, I’ve plotted the first ten years of that period against the standard deviation (and mean) to show that during the first part of the period in question the sea ice was melting less each year than the entire spread.

Sea_Ice_Extent_First_Ten_Years

The second figure shows the same thing but for ten years near the end of this period, not including last year and this year:

Sea_Ice_Extent_Last_Ten_Years

This shows how the standard deviation spread is actually a bit misleading on its own because it does not show the trend of change over time, but this comparison of an earlier ten year period and a recent ten year period demonstrates it dramatically.

Now, have a look at the third graphic, showing last year’s dramatic sea ice drop and the track for the current year so far.

Sea_Ice_Extetn_Last_Year_This_Year

Holy moly.

The melting of this ice faster and more completely means there will be more warming of the Arctic sea by sunlight; the ice would reflect more sunlight back into space but open water absorbs more of it. So, the Arctic is warmer than it should be and it is getting warmer than it was, at the same time.

The warming of the Arctic in turn reduces the gradient of heat from the equatorial regions to the poles in the Northern Hemisphere. This causes the Jet Streams do do strange things, which causes Weather Weirding, the non-technical term we apply to … well, to weird weather. You can read about this link in the following two posts:

<ul>
  • Why are we having such bad weather?
    • <li><a href="http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2013/06/04/linking-weather-extremes-to-global-warming/">Linking Weather Extremes to Global Warming</a></li></ul>

    Are Canadians Inherently, Perhaps Genetically, Nicer, Smarter, Gooder?

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    No, it turns out. Paul Douglass pointed me to this very interesting piece in Foreign Policy, from which I take a brief quote:

    … The good neighbor has banked its economy on the cursed elixir of political dysfunction — oil. Flush with visions of becoming a global energy superpower, Canada’s government has taken up with pipeline evangelists, petroleum bullies, and climate change skeptics. Turns out the Boy Scout’s not just hooked on junk crude — he’s become a pusher. And that’s not even the worst of it.

    With oil and gas now accounting for approximately a quarter of its export revenue, Canada has lost its famous politeness. Since the Conservative Party won a majority in Parliament in 2011, the federal government has eviscerated conservationists, indigenous nations, European commissioners, and just about anyone opposing unfettered oil production as unpatriotic radicals. It has muzzled climate change scientists, killed funding for environmental science of every stripe, and in a recent pair of unprecedented omnibus bills, systematically dismantled the country’s most significant long-cherished environmental laws.

    The author of this transformation is Prime Minister Stephen Harper …

    I understand Canada is going to start up its own version of FOX News!

    Only kidding. Well, they probably already have one. Point is, go read this, it’s interesting.

    Meet Lonesome George

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    I’m sure you already know the story of Lonesome George:

    And now, you can see “him” (as it were) at the American Museum of Natural History. From a press release:

    Lonesome George Will Be on View at American Museum of Natural History

    Museum will Oversee Preservation and Taxidermy of Famous Tortoise

    Lonesome George, the 100-year-old (estimated) Pinta Island tortoise (Chelonoidis abingdoni)—the last of his kind—who died in June 2012, will be preserved for posterity by the same expert taxidermy and conservation team that worked on the acclaimed renovation of the Jill and Lewis Bernard Family Hall of North American Mammals at the American Museum of Natural History. The world-famous giant tortoise, who continues to be an icon for conservation in Ecuador’s Galápagos Islands, will be on display at the Museum for a limited time starting this winter. Afterwards, Lonesome George will be returned to the Galápagos.

    Lonesome George, weighing 200 pounds and measuring 5 feet long, was probably the most famous and most photographed giant tortoise in the world. He died at the Charles Darwin Research Station on Santa Cruz Island in June 2012. Despite efforts to provide him with a mate, George never successfully reproduced and remained the last known member of his subspecies.

    The Museum’s Center for Biodiversity and Conservation works closely with the Galápagos National Park Service, the SUNY College of Environmental Sciences and Forestry, and the Galápagos Conservancy to understand the current role of tortoises in the larger ecosystem and to help conserve these magnificent animals. The four organizations are working together to prepare Lonesome George’s body and spread awareness of the importance of biodiversity conservation.

    “We are honored to receive this incredibly important specimen and ultimately, put it on display for the public,” said Michael J. Novacek, senior vice president and provost of science at the American Museum of Natural History. “Our team of experts, using preservation and taxidermy techniques that have earned this institution recognition throughout the world, will ensure the legacy of Lonesome George lives on and is appreciated by future generations.”

    “I’m thrilled to have the opportunity to work with the Galápagos National Park Service, SUNY ESF, and Galápagos Conservancy team to preserve such an important icon for the global conservation movement,” said Eleanor Sterling, director of the Center for Biodiversity and Conservation at the American Museum of Natural History. “Together we will bring Lonesome George, both in his physical presence and message, before the international public in ways we hope have a lasting impact.”

    Note: The top picture, from Wikipedia Commons, is NOT Lonesome George. That should be obvious, as it looks nothing like him, but I realized some people may not know that.

    Honoring the 19 dead at Yarnell Hill, AZ

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    Nineteen fire fighters were killed yesterday as they were overrun by a lightning-sparked fire in Arizona. This consisted of the entire crew as deployed to fight the Yarnell Hill Fire near Phoenix, Arizona. The best way to honor these fallen heroes, from afar and from the perspective of fellow citizens, is to demand that more support be given to their efforts (by ending the Republican Sequester) and to acknowledge that their job has been made much harder because of global warming induced increases in wild fire frequency and severity.

    Global warming is on track to double the number of wild fires in the US by 2050, but very few predictions of this type have panned out over the last ten years. Usually, the degree of severity of climate effects from global warming is much larger than predicted, or comes sooner than predicted. Some people try to push responsibility for more fires off on bad management practices, but this, while it may be a factor, is a) old news and addressed in many areas decades ago; b) pales in comparison to the effects of drought and c) pales in comparison to massive tree death which in turn is exacerbated if not simply directly caused by anthropogenic climate change.

    Climate change increases wild fire frequency and severity via a number of different mechanisms (as described here). We have known for some time that global warming would change weather patterns in a way that increases the amount of burn in already dry areas such as the American Southwest and Australia. A while back it was postulated that warming in the Arctic would have this as a direct effect. And this has all come to pass in the last few years. Recently, the chief of the US Forest Service reminded Congress that climate change is the reason for the recent uptick in wild fires. I think we still have to see what effect, if any, the Republican Sequester will have on fire fighting and safety to communities and fire fighters alike.

    There is an interesting meme going around, that fire fighter deaths have been declining in recent years. This is cited along side the news of the 19 who died yesterday. But that figure is for fire fighters in general, not wild fire fighters specifically, and since the data don’t include the last two years, which have been particularly bad, they may be misleading. (In the case I link to, USA Today, the 9/11 attacks are said to have occurred in 2011, so clearly, the report put together by John Bacon, is very poorly done generally.)

    Between April 1990 and August 2011, 319 firefighters had died on duty in addressing fires in wild lands. According to the US Fire Administration, 47 firefighters died during the five year period 2007 and 2011 (inclusively), 91 between 2002 and 2006, 83 between 1997 and 2001, 66 between 1992 and 2001, 32 between 1987 and 1991. A the sequence 32-66-83-91-47 is not a downward trend. Unfortunately, I don’t have good data on the number of fire fighters killed for annual 2011 and 2012, and we are obviously early in the year for 2013.