For the second time in a row, storms have interfered with the Republican National Convention. The political party that denies science, and in particular, denies climate change, that thinks NOAA built an Ark and that has no interest in the kind of regulation that saves Libertarians from themselves when Hurricanes hit settled communities, is being messed with by Big Weather.

Which brings us to our discussion of Isaac.

Isaac is still a tropical storm, and he is getting better organized, though slowly. The beginnings of an eye are becoming visible. It is expected that Isaac will become a hurricane by tomorrow morning, and to be over land and breaking down into a big wet non-hurricanal mess in three days. Between now and then, there is some uncertainty.

Isaac is currently just north of Cuba and bearing down on the Florid Keys, over which it will increase to hurricane strength during the night. But then he will likely head out over the gulf and strengthen quite a bit hitting Mississippi plus or minus one Louisiana/Alabama just after turning into a category 2 hurricane. The amount of uncertainty regarding Isaac’s landfall is greater than usual for a hurricane at this time in its development. UPDATE: As of a 5PM Eastern, the Hurricane Prediction Center has moved the likely track of Isaac to the west, so the center of the track is much closer to New Orleans. However, the Hurricane Prediction Center is still saying that there is a great deal of uncertainty.

Having said that, it there is about a 10% chance that a category 3 hurricane will hit New Orleans on the anniversary of Katrina. More likely, it will be a Category 2 and to the east of New Orleans. In any event, this is a serious hurricane.

In the meantime, the GOP is running scared:

Tropical Storm Isaac has been difficult to track, but its potential to affect Florida has caused the Republican National Convention to change its plans. Events for Monday have been canceled, though the committee will convene briefly. As Alan Greenblatt reported for It’s All Politics, this is now the second-consecutive Republican National Convention to be delayed by a storm.

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