I’m going to be going to North Carolina in a matter of hours (well, tomorrow some time) where I’ll be heavily engaged in ScienceOnline 2012. I don’t want to plan how much writing I’ll be doing here or a Scienceblogs, because I’m not sure what I’ll be doing there. Since the main reason to go to this conference aside from attending the really cool sessions is to see friend, colleagues, and loved ones I otherwise rarely see, I can’t count on a lot of bloggy activity. So, it would be especially helpful for me if you’d allow me to say one or two things about South Carolina and then leave it until after the fact.
Romney is the current leader and polling numbers for South Carolina, the general primary process, and upcoming Florida all show the same thing. We also see that Gingrich is a consistent second and Santorum and Paul are fluctuating around third place, with Santorum being more commonly ahead of Paul. The gap between Romney and second place Gingrich is large, and the gap among the second placers and lower is small.
The most straight forward interpretation, then, is this: Romney will be running against Obama, but there are well funded and not insignificant others in a position to move in if Romney falters. Attacks such as the Bain Bane have not hurt Romney so far. In a way, that is good news, because I interpret this as people not seeing Gingrich, who has led those attacks, as particularly credible. The fact that this one time Gingrich is right is a bit disturbing, but we are dealing with Republicans, after all. And they make no sense.
In short, I see a horse race with Romney several lenghts ahead until the end, unless he stumbles and then, well, chaos. Romney does have the best numbers in one-on-one polling against Obama, compared to all the others.
OK, now I’m going to go check the weather in North Carolina, then go buy a shirt.
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The weather was lovely here today. About 60 for the high and 40s for lows.
It looks as if tomorrow will be cooler (49 day) but things will warm up by Friday and back to the 60s by Saturday.
Welcome back to NC.
I’d love to meet up with some of the conference folks. Post hang out locations if you can. I couldn’t get signed up but wish I could. I hope you are going to the Museum of Natural Science reception Thursday night. Enjoy the tour. The changes there are going to be phenomenal!
Umm, sure, its your blog after all!
I don’t know if you allow requests here but awhile ago now you mentioned knowing Obama decades before he became President & I’m kinda curious to hear more on that and what he was like if you don’t mind?