Apparently there is an argument among spaceologists as to how long satellite debris floating around the earth will stay “up there.” The difference in opinion ranges from decades or a century or so on one hand to ten thousand years on the other hand . Details here.
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Jeffrey Lewis over at armscontrolwonk was been on this issue for years, and has had a lot of useful commentary over there the last few days.
A short bit in the news was about space debris falling in Texas just in the last few days. The report hinted that it was probably from the satellite collision. I am sceptical that it would be coming down this soon.
At what point does this become dangerous for airline flying? Debris falling from the sky, an amount consistent enough to warrant serious concern?
It sounds to me like you’ve got the best opinion of a debris guy (Johnson) up against the statement to reporters of an ISS chief (Solovyov). All other things being equal, I’ll take Johnson’s numbers.
I assume that these bits are going slower and/or burned up before they hit the airplanes, and airplanes are going kinda slow also. But the relative velocities of space dibris still in orbit and satellites or space stations in orbit can be enormous.
Phil Plait over at Bad Astronmy has a good write up about the collision and the recent fireball.