And the worst case scenario is that this lead could drop by far less then necessary to turn the race around.
Everyone assumes that the loser, in this case Coleman, will file a law suit. It would fit with how the game has been played so far. But what would such a law suit do? It is not the case that there is some 300 votes laying around that Coleman could have if he won a suit. The best he could probably do, and this is very unlikely, is to get about 130 votes that may or may not have been double counted thrown out. Not enough.
The other thing Coleman could do with a law suit is to end his political career in Minnesota. It is now Obvious that Franken has won this race. If Coleman files a law suit, which he would have to do within seven days of the certification of the election (expected Monday), and the suit was heard by the State Supreme court (which it may well not be), then there would be a period of several (three or four) weeks during which time Coleman would be increasingly seen as not really caring about democracy. This, of course, would be happening as the other shoe drops on Coleman’s political career.
What might that other shoe be? Oh I don’t know …. it could be the FBI investigation that is currently under way. It could be one of the waitresses he fondled in some down town restaurant while getting drunk with his friends. Who know, it could even be his wife, tired of his philandering, walking out on him. I mean, after all, what does she have to gain by sticking with this turncoat loser?
The best case scenario is that Coleman simply admits he lost. Then it is over and we get on with having a democratic system and Minnesota is represented, as it should be, by two senators.
The worst case scenario is that Coleman forces the final decision to be dragged out by a month or two and then, likely, loses anyway. In a certain way, although that would be difficult for everyone, it could be the best scenario because it would certainly terminate, forever, his (Coleman’s) career.
Up until this point, the recount process has been well controlled and fair. I think it will continue to be so. It is not really the case, as we often hear from the press, that this can be held up on court forever, if the court simply refuses to be used as a political tool. Coleman has laid the groundwork for a suit, but he has also pissed off the SC justices sufficiently that he hs going to have to have a very strong argument to continue this process.
I expect the following to happen:
1) Monday, the Canvassing Board certifies the election, Franken is the winner.
2) Later that day, Coleman issues a concession statement in writing.
or
2) Tuesday AM Coleman files suit.
3) Tuesday PM the Minnesota Supreme Court refuses the suit.
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!!! 🙂
Let’s hope the MSC rejects it with comments about “courts not meddling in political matters” and “election loser’s claim of ‘irreparable harm’ has no merit when the fact is he simply got fewer votes” — just because that would reflect so well upon Coleman’s lawyer’s prior case, Bush v. Gore.
Hey, just let me know when it is okay to pop the cork and sing “Happy Days are Here Again,” because;
1. Amy Klobuchar is now the Sr. Senator from Minnnesota.
2. The Wellstone Seat is back in the hands of a man who cares about someone other than himself.
3. Stuart, who is “Smart enough, good enough, and doggone it people like him,” will be on a subcommittee promoting mental health care.
4. Norm Coleman will wish he had run for governor instead and will move back to New York.
5. Laurie Coleman will be single and hanging out at DFL events again.
Pyre mentioned Bush vs. Gore. I think this is what has the rethuglicans really running scared now.
We all know that the selection of Dubya as Preznit was the result of egregious election fraud in Florida. The general reaction to these accusations has been: “Oh, suck it up, you WATBs! Your guy lost! Deal with it!”
It’s now beginning to dawn on these people that the Justice department is not going to be under Republican control for certainly four years, in all human probability eight years, and possibly longer. They know that thousands of people have been involved in this concerted campaign of election fraud, vote tampering, voter suppression, and voter intimidation that have characterized presidential elections in this country for the last 28 years, and it’s a mathematical certainty that at least a few of them will come forward and reveal what’s been going on in return for immunity.
It’s possible to argue that this will make no difference. Al Gore did not in fact take office in 2001, or John Kerry in 2005. However, I think there’s an underlying feeling for fair play in the American people that goes above and beyond who they might have voted for in any given election. I think once the shenanigans that caused the last eight years of horror come to light, especially since the results of these crimes have been so disastrous, that the Republican party is going to be marginalized for decades to come.
That’s my hope at least, and the transparent maneuverings of the Coleman camp in this recount may contribute to showing people the kind of crap that has dominated and controlled American politics for so long.
Lurkbot – your comments about shenanigans coming to light reminded me of the recent, tragic, suspicious, death of Mike Connell (Karl Rove’s tech guy). Amy Goodman and Mark Crispin Miller discuss:
http://www.alternet.org/election08/114674/rove%27s_it_guru_warned_of_sabotage_before_fatal_plane_crash%3B_was_set_to_testify/
I was wrong and I’m glad to admit it. I thought Franken was going to lose. This does, of course, bring up the question as to whether jellyfish boned Harry Reid will defy the Republicans and seat Franken.
ABC News: Franken Declared Winner in Minnesota Senate Race