Tag Archives: Wisconsin Primary

Who won the Wisconsin Democratic Primary? (Final)

I’ll post the results when they are available, after 8 or 9 PM central, below.

Meanwhile, as of 6PM Central time, early info from Wisconsin suggests that Sanders will do very well in today’s primary.

The good news for Sanders: My prediction of 55 delegates for Sanders and 31 delegates for Clinton appears to be on track.

Bad news for Sanders: The same model that predicts that still says 2096 committed delegates for Clinton and 1747 for Sanders by the end of the primary season.

The Wyoming primary, this Saturday, should be about even for the two candidates.

In the New York primary, which is in about eighteen years from now (counted in Primary years) (April 19th), is predicted to go for Clinton over Sanders (150:97) with Clinton taking 188 of the delegates from today through the 19th, and Sanders taking 159.

Final results:

With 100% reporting, Sanders will clearly win the Wisconsin Primary. He will likely get about 56.5% of the vote, to Clinton’s 43.2%.

Media reports this as Sanders taking 47 delegates and Clinton taking 36 delegates, of the available 86 delegates.

(Pause for the arithmetically inclined to key in.)

Often the number of delegates assigned by the press, from whatever sources they use, are preliminary and will be changed later. I’ve found that calculating the ultimate number of delegates for proportionate representation by using my own math works better. So, given proportionate distribution of 86 committed delegates, this would translate into something close to 49 delegates for Sanders, and 37 for Clinton.

This is quite a bit off my prediction. I predicted Sanders would win, but by more than this. Moreover, my predictions for Sanders in states he’s won in have tended to underestimate his performance. So, this looks like a very weak win for Sanders at a time when he needed a bigger win.

On the other hand, it is only one race, so it does not mean much.

On the third hand, Sanders outspent Clinton by something like 3:1 (I’ve heard, subject to correction if you’ve got one), so that makes the win less impressive again.