Tag Archives: Florida

Dorian Could Be A Big Problem IMPORTANT UPDATES

UPDATE for Friday 20 Aug AM:

The information below is still pretty accurate for Dorian, except a few important details.

1) The storm is now expected to move more slowly as it gets closer to the Florida coast. This means that the timing is shifted later, possibly by a half a day or more. But, this is not certain, so if you were planning on buying umbrellas don’t put that off. Or, evacuation. Don’t put that off either.

2) For the same reason, the slowdown, Dorian may spend more time in a position to remain strong off the coast but still hitting the coast with severe winds and storm surges, for a longer period of time.

With hurricanes, fast is better, once you know they are coming.

Chances are about even that Dorian will affect the Florida coast as a Category 3 or a Category 4 hurricane. The centerline prediction from the National Hurricane Center has Dorian as just barely a Category 4 as it makes landfall, but as a mid-range Category 4 (i.e., more severe) prior to getting near the coast. This will, of course, cause confusion as reporters spew poorly formed sentences like “Dorian has weakened” instead of “Dorian has made the expected adjustment from a very very very dangerous storm to a very very very dangerous storm because it lost some of its energy scraping your homes and beaches into the sea” or words to that effect.

Best guess right now: Dorian will be a Category 3/4 hurricane as it moves onto land over a several hour long slog centered on about 2:00 AM on Tuesday morning. It will remain a hurricane, but weakening to a Category 1 storm over the next 24 hours as it moves well inland, veering north. Tropical storm force winds will be arriving on the Florida coast early Sunday morning.

The center point for landfall of the eye, with lots of areas to the north and south affected, is West Palm Beach or a bit north of there. 24 hours later, still as a hurricane, the storm may be just south of Orlando.

The norther Bahamas are going to have something very close to a direct hit.

The Hurricane Center has not yet put out information about storm surges, because the possible range of actual landfall is still too uncertain. Indeed, it is still possible that the storm will turn north and hardly hit anything.

It was looking for a while there that Dorian, after moving well inland in Florida, would then stay inland a couple/few hundred miles and find a track across all the states to Maine. Now, it is looking more like it will pop back across the coast and go up the Atlantic, either near the coast nor farther at sea. That would make Dorian’s future very unpredictable, and I suppose it would open up the possibility of reforming as a hurricane.


Most of the models show Hurricane Dorian striking the Atlantic Coast of Florida, though the exact location is not something that can be predicted yet. Somewhere between Palm Coast and Miami, most likely near Melbour, Palm Bay or Port St Lucie. That’s a pretty large area.

This depends, however, on a weather system that is only now forming up north of Dorian, which would cause the storm to not to the usual pull-out where the storms go north and head in the general direction of Bogna Riva.

And, if that weather system forms, some models say its western end will weaken, and that would be an escape door Dorian might use for that northward turn.

So, there is maybe a one in ten chance Dorian will bug out before hitting Florida. There is a small possibility it will come right up to Florida and then bug out, meaning, it would scrape the coast of Florida and Georgia, or just inland, at first as a hurricane then as a tropical storm.

But most likely, Dorian is going to slam into the Atlantic coast of Florida, then move inland. After moving inland, it is very likely to then stay inland, as a major storm of some sort, dumping rain and blowing winds in inland Florida, Georgia, maybe all the way up to Maine. That should be interesting. Wet, and interesting.

How strong will Dorian be? Don’t believe the hype Major news outlets are suddenly saying that Dorian may be a Category 4 storm. Maybe. But almost every model puts Dorian squarely in the extremely dangerous major-storm Category 3 range, with just a couple of models showing it forming into a Category 4 storm. One model actually shows it becoming a Category 5 storm.

But these categories are felatas. You evacuate and/or batten down the hatches for a Category 3 storm because that is a killer storm. You can save the discussion of whether your house was flattened, flooded, or flew away by a Cat 3 vs a Cat 4 storm felata.

When will Dorian strike?

As you know, “ladnfall” is not when a hurricane strikes. It strikes when the storm’s outer bands come ashore and start making for a lot of rain, some wind. It strikes when a storm surge comes through, and the timing of that can vary a lot. It strikes when the hurricane force bands arrive, which can be hours before, and continue hours after, the eye comes ashore.

The Center of the storm is currently predicted to be in “striking” distance at about sunup on Monday morning. SO, overnight Sunday to Monday is a safe estimate of when Dorian might be “strking.”

By sunup the next day, the storm should be well inland, probably turning north, and very large, wet, dangerous, but probably not really a hurricane any more.

The National Weather Service suggests that tropical storm force winds will arrive on the coast of Florida between nightfall Saturday and maybe midnight.

One more small detail: It is possible that Dorian, if it strikes Florida, will pass into the Gulf. If it does, then that will be interesting.

The FL Park Service and the Coast Guard Fight Over Russian Bouy

Interesting, amusing, a story involving Russia that will probably not make you cringe.

It is presumed that the object in question was brought from Cuban waters to Florida by Irma, the Hurricane.

From here:

A 1,200-pound Soviet buoy that surfaced off Dania Beach looks like it belongs in a James Bond movie. Script — which the Library of Congress says is Russian for Hydrometrical Service of the USSR — is painted in black on its side.

Exactly where the rusty, Cold War-era relic came from, and what it was used for, remain a mystery.

Workers at Dr. Von D. Mizell-Eula Johnson State Park pulled it off the beach just days after Hurricane Irma swept through town. They think it floated 350 miles from Cuba, given Cuba’s historically close ties with the Soviet Union.

Bill Moore, the park’s maintenance mechanic, locked eyes on the 12-foot buoy at the same time Coast Guard members did. He marveled at it, thinking, “You don’t find that too often.”

The Coast Guard’s administrative offices are next to the park’s headquarters. “They came running down here with their dog,” he said. “They tried to confiscate it.”

But Moore retrieved it before the Coast Guard could, he said. The buoy was too heavy to budge, so Moore tied a rope around it and with a skid-steer loader dragged it up the embankment and then brought it to the park office’s parking lot.

You are entitled to your own opinion, but not your own facts. Unless you live in Florida

This is disturbing, but since civilization is ending as we speak, I suppose it is not surprising. From the Washington Post:

Any resident in Florida can now challenge what kids learn in public schools, thanks to a new law that science education advocates worry will make it harder to teach evolution and climate change.

The legislation, which was signed by Gov. Rick Scott (R) this week and goes into effect Saturday, requires school boards to hire an “unbiased hearing officer” who will handle complaints about instructional materials, such as movies, textbooks and novels, that are used in local schools. Any parent or county resident can file a complaint, regardless of whether they have a student in the school system. If the hearing officer deems the challenge justified, he or she can require schools to remove the material in question….

Glenn Branch, deputy director of the National Council for Science Education, said that affidavits filed by supporters of the bill suggest that science instruction will be a focus of challenges. One affidavit from a Collier County resident complained that evolution and global warming were taught as “reality.” Another criticized her child’s sixth-grade science curriculum, writing that “the two main theories on the origin of man are the theory of evolution and creationism,” and that her daughter had only been taught about evolution.

“It’s just the candor with which the backers of the bill have been saying, ‘Yeah, we’re going to go after evolution, we’re going to go after climate change,'” that has him worried, Branch said.

Here is the original

Living in sin in Florida?

Well, then not only are going to a) go to hell but also b) to jail if you get caught and c) Sunshine State Republicans want to make sure that does not change.

UPDATE: There’s a poll of sorts at the Sun Sentinel, here.

What do you think of the cohabitation law?. What do you think?

  • Heck yeah, we live in 2011. Who doesn’t co-habitate?
  • No way, there’s a reason this is the law.
  • I’m not sure.

As you can see, it is very well written and carefully thought out. Currently, “Heck” is winning.

Well, one Florida GOPer is trying to get this law and some other irrelevant legislation repealed. Like the law that says you must keep both hands on the handlebars when riding a bike. But the socially conservative wing of the party (i.e., almost all of them) are resisting.

The stupid laws, like the one against co-habitation and the one about how to ride a bike, should be enforced to the greatest extent possible, with the most stupid laws enforced first. It would not be long before they are repealed.

And I am not joking. In my home town, the county prosecutor ran for office on the promise that he’d get rid of the county wide blue laws. Of course, as a prosecutor, that was impossible (he does not make laws, only enforces them) but he kept his promise. Within days of being sworn into office he had sheriff’s deputies dragging people in for any violation of any of the blue laws, which were being ignored about half the time. The county legislative body repealed all of those laws very quickly.

So Florida Troopers need to put on their plain clothes and stand around waving at people going by on their bikes. Anybody waves back, and they’re BUSTED. Then, when you’ve got ’em in a choke hold and are slapping on the cuffs, ask them if they are cohabitating or not. And if they are, BUST ‘EM AGAIN.

Do this in a ‘nice’ neighborhood. Those laws will last two weeks, top.

Details here, at Think Progress.

By the way, the guy who is trying to get rid of these laws is Rep. Ritch Workman, R-Melbourne. His motivation is not social progressiveness, but rather, making government smaller, in part by getting rid of laws that make no sense. Of course, getting rid of laws that make so little sense that they are summarily ignored might not make much sense, but whatever…