Tag Archives: Chantal

Chantal, Welcome to Storm World

Chantal is the next name in line to be use for an Atlantic tropical storm or hurricane name. I’m going to go out on a limb (where I will be duly chastised by my friends and colleagues who are tropical storm experts or meteorologists), and say that a storm currently brewing in the Caribbean has a very good chance of becoming Chantal.

Right now the National Hurricane Center is saying that [al952019], sitting right now leewaard of the Lesser Antilles, has a 10% chance of formation into an actual named storm over the next two days (i.e., it won’t) and a 20% chance of doing so over the next 3 days.

About half of the usual Atlantic hurricane models have not put out estimates of intensity or location, but the few that have show a pretty good chance of this storm reaching an intensity of about 40KT or more at 48+ hours. After that, the models vary as to whether the weather flat-lines, declines, or goes up in intensity. To become a “named storm” (and that matters, especially to insurance people) the storm has to get to 35KT. SO, I’m thinking this system is our Chantal.

More importantly, the various models all agree on this. As a giant wet spot, an annoyingly vigorous low pressure system, or as a named storm, Chantal (or would-be-Chantal) is going to affect the Caribbean islands. Might go through Puerto Rico, might stay south of the Greater Antilles (but look out Jamaica) and hit the Yucatan on the way to the Gulf, or something in between. I don’t think this is an anything-can-happen situation. I think this is your-Great-Aunt-Tillie-is-going-to-get-soaked situation.

I post this here our of bravado. I will follow the course of the storm and revel in the greatness of my prediction over the next 10 days or so. Or, possibly, delete this post like nothing happened if, indeed, nothing happens.

Stay tuned.

Here is Chantal now. Note the big giant blob comming off the coast of West Africa. Dorian?