Monthly Archives: June 2016

Diablo Canyon nuclear plant will shut down

This is bad news and good news, but mostly good news. No matter what you think of nuclear energy (and I’m one of those people who give it a stern look and remain suspicious), it does tend to produce electricity with the addition of much less fossil carbon into the atmosphere than, say, burning coal. So, we probably don’t want to see a wholesale reduction in the use of nuclear energy too quickly, and we may even want to see some new plants built.

The Diablo Canyon nuclear plant is the only working nuke plant in California, and it is famously located in an earthquake-rich locality. The plant was upgraded to withstand a 7.5 earthquake, but earthquakes occasionally happen that are stronger than that. There has only been one earthquake of that magnitude in Southern California since good records have been kept, and that was in 1952. But still….

Diablo Canyon is historically important because the whole idea of building a major nuclear plant in an earthquake zone catalyzed the anti-nuclear movement, and that reaction probably helped to avoid further such construction, and helped nudge the plant operators to upgrade the earthquake readiness of this plant from handling a 6.75 magnitude quake to a 7.5 magnitude quake. There have been six quakes in that range of magnitude in the region in the historic record.

A quick word about earthquakes. Really large earthquakes are actually pretty uncommon in Southern California; other areas, such as the Pacific Northwest have very few quakes but when they happen they can be huge, easily enough to Fuki up a plant like Diablo Canyon. See Earthquake Time Bombs by Robert Yeats for more on that. Nonetheless, being built to withstand a 7.5 earthquake doesn’t necessarily mean that a smaller quake won’t cause problems, or weaken structures that are then more vulnerable to subsequent strong quakes.

Anyway, the following is from a press release from Friends of the Earth, describing how the plan is to replace the energy coming from Diablo Canyon with non fossil carbon fuels. And that, of course, is the extra good news.

BERKELEY, CALIF. – An historic agreement has been reached between Pacific Gas and Electric, Friends of the Earth, and other environmental and labor organizations to replace the Diablo Canyon nuclear reactors with greenhouse-gas-free renewable energy, efficiency and energy storage resources. Friends of the Earth says the agreement provides a clear blueprint for fighting climate change by replacing nuclear and fossil fuel energy with safe, clean, cost-competitive renewable energy.

The agreement, announced today in California, says that PG&E will renounce plans to seek renewed operating licenses for Diablo Canyon’s two reactors — the operating licenses for which expire in 2024 and 2025 respectively. In the intervening years, the parties will seek Public Utility Commission approval of the plan which will replace power from the plant with renewable energy, efficiency and energy storage resources. Base load power resources like Diablo Canyon are becoming increasingly burdensome as renewable energy resources ramp up. Flexible generation options and demand-response are the energy systems of the future.

By setting a certain end date for the reactors, the nuclear phase out plan provides for an orderly transition. In the agreement, PG&E commits to renewable energy providing 55 percent of its total retail power sales by 2031, voluntarily exceeding the California standard of 50 percent renewables by 2030.

“This is an historic agreement,” said Erich Pica, president of Friends of the Earth. “It sets a date for the certain end of nuclear power in California and assures replacement with clean, safe, cost-competitive, renewable energy, energy efficiency and energy storage. It lays out an effective roadmap for a nuclear phase-out in the world’s sixth largest economy, while assuring a green energy replacement plan to make California a global leader in fighting climate change.”

A robust technical and economic report commissioned by Friends of the Earth served as a critical underpinning for the negotiations. The report, known as “Plan B,” provided a detailed analysis of how power from the Diablo Canyon reactors could be replaced with renewable, efficiency and energy storage resources which would be both less expensive and greenhouse gas free. With the report in hand, Friends of the Earth’s Damon Moglen and Dave Freeman engaged in discussions with the utility about the phase-out plan for Diablo Canyon. NRDC was quickly invited to join. Subsequently, International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Local 1245, Coalition of California Utility Employees, Environment California and Alliance for Nuclear Responsibility partnered in reaching the final agreement. The detailed phase out proposal will now go to the California Public Utility Commission for consideration. Friends of the Earth (and other NGO parties to the agreement) reserve the right to continue to monitor Diablo Canyon and, should there be safety concerns, challenge continued operation.

The agreement also contains provisions for the Diablo Canyon workforce and the community of San Luis Obispo. “We are pleased that the parties considered the impact of this agreement on the plant employees and the nearby community,” said Pica. “The agreement provides funding necessary to ease the transition to a clean energy economy.”

Diablo Canyon is the nuclear plant that catalyzed the formation of Friends of the Earth in 1969. When David Brower founded Friends of the Earth the Diablo Canyon was the first issue on the organization’s agenda and Friends of the Earth has been fighting the plant ever since. This agreement is not only a milestone for renewable energy, but for Friends of the Earth as an organization.

What is the Maillard reaction?

My local grocery store just came up with some Vidalia onions. They are the best onions, and I’m cooking with them every day so I can eat them all before any go bad.

When you cook onions to the point where they brown, they become sweet tasting and great smelling. That is the Maillard reaction. Cooking meat enough gets you a similar effect. Toast. All kinds of foods.

“All sorts of things happen in this reaction. But eventually, you get to flavor town.”

Here’s a short video that gives you the science of the Maillard reaction:

How do you pronounce it? Mai yard. More or less. Skip past the “ll” part.

What Are The Best Android Tablets?

Which Android Tablet Is Best?

You will have to decide which tablet is best for you based on your specific needs, and no general review is going to give you that information in a useful way. But, among the many tablets there is a handful that rise to the top and should be looked at either to consider purchasing or to use as a benchmark against which to measure others.

Here is some guidance to help you decide which Android tablet are in that category, and that you should consider. Note that I look briefly at a very inexpensive option here (not included in the list below).

Nexus 9
Nexus 9
Most of these are higher end tablets for general use, but there are some notable exceptions. Because of the timing of when new technology comes out, many of these tablets are older models that have not been replaced yet with the newer models, and prices might be starting to drop for them.

First, the Nexus 9 is essentially being replaced by the Pixel, but the Nexus 9 is still an excellent tablet. So, look here for special deals.

Second, have a look at the Lenovo tablet which combines a projector and a tablet. This could be exactly what is needed for certain folks.

Third, note that some of the tablets either come with keyboards or have keyboards as an accessory.

Fourth, do look at the giant tablets (the last two, below). These are a little strange, but may be exactly what you are looking for.

Finally, if the main thing you are going to use your tablet for is reading Kindle books and watching films (mainly from Amazon) do look at the Amazon tablets. I’ve put two examples here, but you will also find a link below comparing them.

Some of the key specifications for these tablets are in a table at the bottom, but click through to get more information.

Google Nexus 9

Approximate price: $350 and up, look for deals.

Classic top of the line, not really replaced yet by Google Pixel, but it will be. Will be supported for the near future. Probably a good value right now because it is a great tablet with a dropping price. Sock Android OS. Generally, a Google Nexus product is going to run Android better than anyone else. Easy to hold because of material used to make the back.

Google Nexus 9 Tablet (8.9-Inch, 32GB, Black, Wi-Fi)

See also: Google Nexus 10 (Wi-Fi only, 32 GB)

From the makers: “The magnetically attached, fully-responsive keyboard allows you to type at different angles. Sold separately, it helps you get stuff done at home, at the office, and on the go.”

Google Pixel C

Google Pixel C
Google Pixel C
Approximate price: $560 and up

Best pure android tablet. This is the new Google tablet, has great features. Probably overepriced because it is so new, but may be the best tablet in terms of technology.

Google Pixel C 10.2-in HD Touchscreen Tablet

From the makers: “Meet the first Android tablet designed and built from start to finish by Google with a full keyboard, USB Type-C charger and multi-angle display functionality.”

Sony Xperia Z4

Approximate price: $680.

Sony Xperia Z4
Sony Xperia Z4
Don’t confuse this with the Z4 smart phone. One of the thinnest and lighest, somewhat waterproof, modified Android OS. Has a keyboard, but the keyboard gets mixed reviewes. Great battery life.

Sony Xperia Z4 Tablet 10.1" 32 GB – Wifi Only – Black (U.S. Warranty) with Bluetooth Keyboard

From the makers: “This 10.1” Android tablet stretches the limits of display technology. The highest resolution, the brightest screen and the most vivid colours make Xperia Z4 Tablet the best viewing experience you will hold in your hand.”

Nvidia Shield Tablet K1

Nvidia_Shield_Tablet_K1Approximate price: $200–250 and up, depending on options.

Inexpensive, good for gaming, has GeForce. Many versions of this tablet exist depending on what you specify. This is a specialty tablet mainly for gaming, not necessarily the best choice for general use. Long battery life. Not a large amount of onboard storage. (The stylus from earlier models is gone.) Maybe one of the best values given quality and price if you are looking for this type of tablet.

NVIDIA SHIELD Tablet (WiFi)

From the makers: “The new NVIDIA SHIELD tablet K1 is a high-performance Android tablet that transforms into an amazing gaming machine with the SHIELD controller and GeForce NOW™ game-streaming service.”

Lenovo Yoga Tab 3 Pro

Approximate price: $600.

Lenovo Yoga Tab 3 Pro,  caught in the act of projecting.
Lenovo Yoga Tab 3 Pro, caught in the act of projecting.
Powerful processor, great display, good cameras, bulky design, a bit of bloatware. Built in projector, which might make this an excellent choice if you give a lot of presentations in places where there may not be a projector. Ver unique design, with a hinge-stand to help the projector work. This is probably the perfect tablet for some people.

Lenovo (LENZ9) Lenovo Yoga Tab 3 Pro 10 – ZA0F0050US 10.1" WQHD 2-in–1 Laptop/Tablet (Intel Atom Z8500 1.4GHz Processor, 2 GB SDRAM, 32 GB SDD, Android 5.1 Lollipop)

From the makers: “The YOGA Tab 3 Pro boasts a revolutionary integrated projector that turns any room into your very own theater. Experience a new way to enjoy videos and movies. Use the rotatable hinge and super bright 50 lumen output to project an image of up to 70” (178cm) on any wall or ceiling.”

Dell Venue 10 7000

Dell Venue 10 7000
Dell Venue 10 7000
Approximate price: $270 – 400 depending on storage specs.

Comes with a keyboard. Standard Android OS. Heavy, but sturdy. Wraparound front speakers. See also Dell Venu 8. This is a very good tablet, out does earlier Dell models. Probably has a great battery life.

Dell Venue 10 7040 v7040–6980BLK 10.5-Inch 32 GB Tablet

From the makers: “With a sleek design, 10.5-inch OLED touch screen and optional magnetically attachable keyboard, the Venue 10 7000 Series is designed to impress.”

Amazon Fire

Approximate price: $50.

Really cheap, highly modified Android OS, slower and lower quality screen than other tablets, and smallish, but well designed for Amazon kindle reading. I like mine.

Fire Tablet, 7" Display, Wi-Fi, 8 GB – Includes Special Offers, Black

See this review.

Amazon Fire HDX 8.9

Amazon Fire HDX 8.9
Amazon Fire HDX 8.9
Approximate price: $400.

Dolby Atmos audio-enhancing technology. Highly modified OS, including parental controls. The Amazon App store is not as good as the Google Play store. Mainly a media tablet, and of coruse, great for reading Kindle books.

Fire HDX 8.9 Tablet, 8.9" HDX Display, Wi-Fi, 64 GB – Includes Special Offers

If one of the main things you do with your tablet is reading and watching movies, an Amazon tablet may be an excellent choice for you, but there is a huge range of technologies and prices.

There is a table here at Amazon allowing you to compare them

Two Giant Tablets

Fuhu Nabi Big Tab HD 20

Approximate price: $550.

Fuhu Nabi Big Tablet
Fuhu Nabi Big Tablet
Huge: 24 inches. There are other sizes as well, and the 24 inch version may be hard to get, leaving you with the smaller 20 inch version. Said to have a pretty good screen. Very kid-friendly, parental controlls, stock Android OS, will not fit in your pocket. Probably best for specialized uses such as in schools.

nabi Big Tab HD 20"

“Made especially for children and their parents, the nabi Big Tab HD™ line features a massive 20” and 24” HD display, built-in Bluetooth and Wi-Fi, 16 GB of on board storage, Android 4.4 Kit Kat, integrated parental controls and over 400 kid-focused, parent-approved features through nabi’s Blue Morpho OS. Unlike other tablets that are designed to be personal devices, the Big Tab is made for sharing and collaboration in learning, playing, creating and communicating. It features family fun experiences including Two Play (classic 2-player board games), Game Room (arcade games like air hockey), Showtime (popular movies and TV shows), Story Time (interactive bedtime stories), Big Canvas (drawing and editing videos) and more.”

Samsung Galaxy View

Samsung Galaxy View
Samsung Galaxy View
Samsung Galaxy View 18.4" 32 GB Tablet (Wi-Fi), Black

Approximate price $500:

Another giant tablet (older model) to check out in case you are looking for one of those.

This is essentially a TV. From the manufacturer: “Knowing how you watch TV, we designed the biggest ever Android-powered full HD screen that’s large enough to double as a beautiful TV and light enough to be portable.”

This tablet is so big it has a handle.

Specifications

Tablet Screen Size Screen Resolution Processor Ram (GB) Storage (GB) SD slot
Google Nexus 9 8.9 2048 X 1536 2.3 GHz Tegra (2 processors) 2 32 No
Google Pixel C 10.2 2560 X 1800 NVIDIA Tegra X1 with Maxwell GPU 3 32 No
Sony Xperia Z4 10.1 2560 X 1600 Quad Cxore Snapdragon 2 GHz 3 32 Yes
Nvidia Shield Tablet K1 8 1920 X 1200 2.2 GHz Tegra K1 2 16 Yes
Lenovo Yoga Tab 3 Pro 10.1 2560 X 1440 1.4 GHz Atom Z8500 2 32 No
Dell Venue 10 7000 10.5 2560 X 1600 2.33 GHz Atom Z3580 2 32 Yes
Amazon Fire 7 1024 X 1600 1.3 GHz quad core 1 8 or 16 Yes
Amazon Fire HDX 8.9 8.9 2560 X 1600 2.5 GHz quad core 2 16 – 64 No
Fuhu Nabi Big Tab HD 20 19.5+ 1600 X 900 1.6 GHz Tegra 4.0 2 16 No
Samsung Galaxy View 18.4 1920 X 1080 1.6 GHz 8032 2 32 Yes

The Birdman of Lauderdale

The Birdman of Lauderdale is a collection of essays by birdman Clay Christensen.

Clay writes the popular “Birdman of Lauderdale” column for the Saint Paul Park Bugle, and leads birdwatching field trips in the Twin Cities area.

This is a collection of updated and edited essays from that publication, most about bird watching, or the birds themselves. Is it OK to hate cowbirds? What is it like to witness the takeoff of a mob of cranes? How do birdwatchers find birds anyway? What is bird banding all about? These and other burning questions are addressed in engagingly written snippets.

I really enjoyed this book. If you are a bird watcher, or thinking about becoming a bird watcher, you will enjoy this book. Or, maybe you are looking for the perfect gift for someone who is into birds, especially in the upper midwest or plains.

Why do we need to keep 80% of the fossil fuels in the ground?

Roughly speaking, we are toast if the Earth’s surface temperatures reach something like 3 degrees C above pre-industrial levels.

We have already reached about 1.5 degrees C above pre-industrial, and we will go higher even if we stop adding more greenhouse gasses to the atmosphere, because it takes time for the Earth’s system (the oceans, atmosphere, and ice, mainly) to catch up.

It is generally thought that if we don’t keep about 80% of the known fossil fuel, including coal, oil and other oily substances, and gas, in the ground, then we will go past that 3 degree level.

As noted in a recent panel discussion with the Democratic National Convention platform committee:

These numbers vary, and if you look at the literature on this topic over the last few years, you may become justifiably mystified. One of the problems is that people have been talking about a 2.0 degree limit, but with the assumption that we are now closer to 1.0 degree. But we have been beyond that for a long time, if you measure the surface temperature fairly and accurately. Another factor is some confusion and uncertainty (two different things) about the level of surface warming that will occur with a given increase on greenhouse gasses. But even if all this is straightened out, there is still another source of uncertainty. This is the degree to which Earth systems will helpfully absorb some of this extra carbon, or be altered to release even more, because of feedback effects.

Historically, feedback effects have turned out to be positive more often than negative. Here, the word “positive” is bad, because it means that when you release greenhouse gasses, it warms stuff up, and then that causes some extra greenhouse gasses that were previously stored away somewhere to also be released (such as from warmed up Arctic soils). There is no reason to expect that in the future this trend will reverse, and in fact, there are some systems that are likely to become more of a positive (as in bad) effect than they are now. The degree to which this may occur is not clear.

There are two important things you need to know about the 80% limit and its relation to effects on the planet. First, if we meet that 80% limit, things are still going to continue to warm up and change, and things are going to get pretty bad for some people. The difference between staying just under the limit and going well beyond the limit is the difference between things getting bad and things getting so bad that we can start talking about extinction and the collapse of civilization.

The second thing you need to know is that we need to remain skeptical about this number. Among those in the know, who are not deniers of the science, there are very few if any who think this is too conservative, and a good number who see it as not enough. No matter what, we have to constantly monitor what is happening with the climate as well as our energy industry.

This is doable.

Climate Change Denial Threatens Our Planet and is Driving Us Crazy

The Madhouse Effect: How Climate Change Denial Is Threatening Our Planet, Destroying Our Politics, and Driving Us Crazy is a great new book by climate scientist Michael Mann and cartoonist Tom Toles.

This book serves many purposes. It includes an overview of the basic science of climate change and human caused global warming. It has a compendium of many of the key science deniers, and a description of the well known taxonomy of science denial (“It’s Not Happening!”, “OK, It’s Happening but It’s Natural”, “It Will Take Care Of Itself”, “It Will Be Good For Us”, etc.). The authors discuss the war on climate science, and of special interest because it isn’t discussed enough, the prospects (which are poor) and the problems (which are very serious) of geoengineering as a means of addressing climate change.

And, everything is well documented with detailed notes and references at the end, including some to my own writing on the topic!

This is not like a cartoon guide to a topic (though those guides are great), but is mainly text richly illustrated with Tolees’ often ironic and biting cartoons. The text is well written and very accessible but at the same time authoritative.

And the book will prove its own need. Just visit the amazon reviews of this book and you’ll see, I suspect (give it a few weeks for the deniers to mass on the borders of reason and charge in).

I highly recommend this book for anyone interested in climate change and global warming. Teachers discussing this issue in class may want to have a copy of it handy, especially to prepare for denialist charges and complaints, but also, for the basic science. Activists will find the material on what to do about climate change, at several levels, interesting and helpful.

The book is available now for pre-order.

A dietary supplement to slow aging

This is great news if you are a mouse!

Here’s the summary of the paper:

NAD+ repletion improves mitochondrial and stem cell function and enhances life span in mice, by
Hongbo Zhang, Dongryeol Ryu, Yibo Wu, Karim Gariani, Xu Wang, Peiling Luan, Davide D’Amico, Eduardo R. Ropelle, Matthias P. Lutolf, Ruedi Aebersold, Kristina Schoonjans, Keir J. Menzies, Johan Auwerx, (here, if you subscribe to Science.)

The oxidized form of cellular nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide (NAD+) is critical for mitochondrial function, and its supplementation can lead to increased longevity. Zhang et al. found that feeding the NAD+ precursor nicotinamide riboside (NR) to aging mice protected them from muscle degeneration… NR treatment enhanced muscle function and also protected mice from the loss of muscle stem cells. The treatment was similarly protective of neural and melanocyte stem cells, which may have contributed to the extended life span of the NR-treated animals.

Writing in Science, Leonard Guarente notes:

NAD was discovered over a century ago, and its role in cells as a redox conduit in metabolism was subsequently established. More recently, its oxidized form, NAD+, resurfaced as a key molecule in aging in organisms ranging from yeast to mammals by the finding that the antiaging proteins, sirtuins, are NAD+-dependent deacylases. These proteins play a key role in mitochondrial function. Indeed, aging is also associated with loss of sirtuin and mitochondrial function.

As to whether NAD+ replenishment can improve health maintenance in humans, it has been reported that cellular NAD+ amounts decline during human aging (11). Also, the strict conservation in the relevant pathways of NAD+ synthesis, sirtuins, and PARPs suggests that NAD+ replenishment may also provide health benefits in people. Still, it will be important to test in humans whether dietary supplementation with NAD+ precursors will raise cellular NAD+ concentrations sufficiently to compensate for the loss due to aging. If so, it will also be necessary to test, in rigorously controlled trials, whether raising NAD+ concentrations improves health parameters, such as blood glucose and lipid profile, as well as inflammation. More expanded trials could measure effects on bone density, endothelial cell function, muscle mass, or even cognition. If NAD+ precursors can positively affect health parameters, it is reasonable to anticipate their place at the table alongside more traditional pharmaceutical drugs in the treatment of diseases.

And yes, you can buy this stuff.

But before you do that you may want to check out some of the writing that comes up from the Skeptical Search Engine.

Climate Signals: Excellent new resource

Weather is climate here and now, and climate is weather over the long term. Climate is the large scale process of movement of air and water, and changes in the properties of air and water, on and near the surface of the Earth, the atmosphere, oceans, and ice fields respond to the imbalance of heat — with more of it near the equator and less of it at the poles — as the world literally turns. Weather is the local, temporal, and personally observable sign of that climate system. Climate is meaning and weather is the semiotic process by which we understand that meaning.

OK, perhaps I’ve gone too far with the semiotics.

Anyway, I’m pretty sure that the number one way in which change in the climate system, that change caused over several decades of release of greenhouse gasses (and other changes) by humans, is understood by people is through the observation and experience of weather. All the data from NOAA and other earth-watching science agencies, all those excellent blog posts about this or that piece of research, all the great talks by the top climate scientists don’t amount to a hill of beans when compared to a long lasting killer heat wave, a devastating hurricane, a swarm of town-smashing tornadoes, or a vast flooding event. Not so much one event, but the obvious and undeniable increase in frequency of such events.

Climate Signals is one of those great ideas that addresses a basic need using a compelling approach. Climate Signals, currently in Beta form, is a data base of climate events, with geographical information, and highly structured information linking these events to research, indicating climate change connections with varying degrees of certainty, news reports, and all the other information one might want about those events.

I believe Climate Signals will become a significant go-to source for journalists writing about climate, as well as policy makers and even scientists who want to make reference to specific events and get those references right.

Climate change affects us all. Through the use of mapping, Climate Signals shows what climate change looks like on the ground, in your region, state, or neighborhood and identifies the long-term climate trends and physical processes that may be at work.

You should go to the Climate Signals website and browse around. Give them feedback. Send the link to friends and foes. I’m going to make it part of my daily reading.

The War On Science: What It Is And How To Win It

Thinker, writer, and independent scholar Shawn Otto has written an important book called “The War on Science: Who’s Waging It, Why It Matters, What We Can Do About It” (Milkweed Editions, publisher)

Read this book now, and act on what you learn from it, for the sake of your own future and the future of our children and their children.

The rise of modern civilization, from the Enlightenment onward for hundreds of years, was the same thing as the rise of modern science. The rise of science was a cultural novelty with only vague foreshadowing. It was a revolution in the way humans think.

People come to believe what they believe in a way that rarely involves scientific thinking. The human mind is not inherently rational in the sense we usually use the term today. The process of learning things, of inference, and developing habits that guide our reactions to the world around us, evolved to function well enough given our usual cultural, social, and ecological context. But the modern world presents challenges that are better addressed, and problems that are only solvable, with a scientific approach. Science is something we willfully impose on our own process of thought and, at the level of society, formation of policy and law.

You have heard of the concept of “diseases of civilization.” For example, we evolved to seek and love sugars and fats, and then we developed methods of obtaining seemingly unlimited quantities of said nutrients. The success of our system of feeding ourselves solves the problem of uncertainty in the food supply and creates the problems of atherosclerosis, widespread obesity, and all too common diabetes.

Self damaging stupidity also seems to be a disease of civilization. One would think that with the rise of science, the opposite would happen, and it has to some extent.

People spend a great deal of time and energy, and other resources, acting on beliefs about food production and personal health that are contrary to their own best interests. Had a fraction of that energy been spent on trying to understand the relevant science of food production and health, those individuals would be much better off, as would the rest of society. The same pattern can be seen in all other aspects of life, from energy production and use to systems of transportation to diplomacy and warfare. Again and again, great ideas emerge that may become excellent new laws or common best practices, only to be watered down and compromised because of this self damaging stupidity. How, when, and why did we get here?

Today, increasingly and powerfully, anti-science forces are strong and shape the way people think and act to our collective detriment. This is the problem Otto addresses.

How is it that humans invented science, used science for all sorts of improvements (and, admittedly, a number of unintended negative consequences), and then came to new ways of developing policy and practice that hobble the use of this important cultural and social resource?

Shawn Otto’s book is a careful and detailed scholarly examination of this question. I struggled for a time with whether or not I should make the following statement about The War on Science, because I want this statement to be taken in a positive way, though it might be seen as a criticism. Otto’s book is similar to, and at the level of, an excellent PhD thesis. I very quickly add, however, that since this is the work of a very talented writer and communicator, it does not read like a PhD thesis. It reads like a page turner. But the substance of the book is truly scholarly, contributes new thinking, and is abundantly and clearly documented and backed up. I can’t think of too many books that do all of this.

The Enlightenment and the early rise of scientific thinking was a self conscious effort by a small number of individuals to rethink the way we think, and it was a very effective one. Almost every advance in technology, economy, and society – from vehicles and energy to the invention of money and markets, to new or modified forms of government – arose from the self conscious application of scientific thinking. The same great mind that contributed so much to the invention of modern physics and mathematics, that of Sir Isaac Newton, modernized the production of coinage and regulation of international exchange of money (as well as modern systems of engaging and neutralizing counterfeiting). The invention of the American system of government was the intentional and thoughtful product of individuals who called themselves and their actions scientific.

But, as Newton would say, for each and every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. Science is not only a powerful tool for doing new things and improving old approaches, but it is also very inconvenient. For some, under certain conditions.

It isn’t that science itself is bad for powerful entities that make up the political and industrial status quo. Science is as essential today as it has ever been, or more so, to the owners of energy companies, the producers of military gear, the growers and purveyors of food, and so on. But there are times when the best available scientific evidence suggests that the best decisions that society or government should make are contrary to the vested self interest of those power brokers. So, really, the best method, from the point of view of stockholders in major corporations or the owners of vast energy or agricultural resources, or others, is to use science but also to control the interface between scientific action and public policy.

In other words, the scientifically derived answer to a question is different when the premise is different. What is the best way to increase profits from making and selling energy? What is the best way to protect the public health while making and selling energy? These are two valid questions that, at least in the short and medium term, can produce dramatically different answers.

In 2012, Shawn Otto posed the conundrum, “It is hard to know exactly when it became acceptable for U.S. politicians to be antiscience.” One could ask the same question about leaders of industry. The answer may be fairly obvious. This became acceptable the moment the interests being served by those politicians shifted from the populous to the smaller subset of owners and investors of business and industry. The money trail, which one is often advised to follow to find a truth, leads pretty directly to that answer.

A harder question is, how did large portions of the academic world also decide to be anti-science? For this, one needs to take a more fine grained cultural approach, looking at self interest in the context of scholarship.

How does religion fit in here? The modern, mainly social network-bound, conversation about religion science, secularism, etc. is over-simplistic and mostly wrong. It is not the case that religion and science are opposite things. Rather, the rise of science was part of revolutionary changes in European religious institutions, culture, and politics. There are ironies in that story and the details are fascinating and important. Otto covers this.

Otto also identifies and discusses at length something I’ve been talking and writing about for some time. The nature of the conversation itself. If a conversation proceeds among those with distinctly different self interest, it quickly goes pedantic. If, on the other hand, a conversation proceeds among those with the common goal of understanding something better, or solving a particular problem, then it progresses and discovery and learning happen. On all of the different fronts of the “war on science” we see the honest conversation breaking down, or even, not happening to begin with, and from this nothing good happens.

Otto identifies a three-front war on science: The identity politics war on science, the ideological warn on science, and the industrial war on science. Conflate or ignore the differences at your peril. Postmodernism problemtizes the very concept of truth. Much of what you think of as the war on science is part of the ideological war on science, often with strong religious connections. The industrial war on science is in some ways the most important because it is the best funded, and the anti-science generals have a lot at stake. When cornered, they tend to be the most dangerous.

The last part of Otto’s book is on how to win this war. He is detailed and explicit in his suggestions, producing a virtual handbook of action and activism. Recognizing how the system works, how to marshal resources to reshape the conversation, what scientists need to do, what communicators need to do, are part of a coherent plan. He ends with a “Science Pledge” which is “a renewed commitment to civic leadership based on the principles of freedom, science, and evidence.” And there is nothing new in this pledge. It is, essentially, a fundamentalist approach to science, society, and policy, going back to the beginnings of the coeval rise of science and civilization. There is little in Otto’s pledge that would not have been said by Thomas Jefferson, John Locke, or Francis Bacon.

You will enjoy Otto’s “The War on Science” and it will enrich and advance your understanding of the key, existential, issue of the day. And, it won’t just inform you and rile you up, but it will also help you define goals and give you tools to meet them.

The War on Science is an essential work, a game changer, and probably the most important book you’ll read this year.


Here’s an interview with Shawn Otto on Ikonokast Podcast.

If Bernie Sanders was Playing Poker He Would Not Fold

Since 1968, about 17 candidates ran in Democratic primary races and earned enough votes (above about 20% all told) to count as having been contenders.

Of those, one was murdered, one was shot but lived, one was eliminated from competition by GOP dirty tricks, and one left the race because of insufficient support but would probably have been exposed as having two families (that would have been a scandal) had he stayed in the race.

Putting this another way, there is about a 24% chance that a Democrat running in a primary will be taken out of the race for extrinsic reasons.

Given the stakes, i.e., becoming the most powerful person of the 7 billion on Earth, one would probably stay in the race if one is in second place.

I should note that the gunning down of candidates has not happened in a while, and those early events caused a significant increase in security. Dirty tricks are still a possibility, and we may have seen that in this year’s race, but if so, they were against Clinton, not Sanders. Scandalous behavior wiping out a candidate is unlikely this year as well. Clinton has been more heavily vetted than any candidate in history, and unless Sanders’ tax returns turn out to actually be interesting (we’ll probably never know), he seems fairly scandal free.

But, the odds is the odds, and since the modern system of primaries emerged, which could be dated to 1968, your opponent has only a 76% chance of survival even if you do nothing.

Shawn Otto’s New Book

Shawn Otto’s The War on Science: Who’s Waging It, Why It Matters, What We Can Do About It is a very important and excellent book, just released.

I have a review of it, but after going to the book launch the other day, decided to rewrite some bits. But I’m currently more nomadic than usual and this is not a good time to so such important work, so I’ll not likely post the review until Monday.

But I wanted to let you know about the book.

Who Won The California, New Jersey and Other Democratic Primaries?

And, how did my model do?

There was a lot of talk about California, and a lot of back and forth, but in the end I stuck with my original model to predict the outcome of that race. See the table above for the results, but the bottom line is that I predicted that Clinton would get 57 percent of the votes and Sanders 43 percent. It turns out that Clinton got 57 percent and Sanders got 43 percent.

Excuse me for a moment while I bask in the bright light of being-right-ness.

Thank you. Now, on to the details.

First, a quick, note on the numbers and methods. All my percents (for prediction and as reported for the outcome) are the proportions of each candidate’s take of the two candidates, so “other” or “The Lizard People” or anything other than Clinton or Sanders are taken out of consideration. In some cases this will cause the numbers to look different than those reported by the press. The awarded delegates I provide here are from the Washington Post, and often do not add up to my predicted proportionate amount. This is because the process of awarding delegates is complicated and bizarre. Eventually the numbers of proportionate delegates will settle to be very close to those you would get form using the percentage of votes for each candidates.

The outcome of yesterday’s primaries was pretty much as expected, but not exactly. Polls and my model both seemed to predict that Clinton would win New Jersey by a large margin, California by a good amount, likely New Mexico, and that Sanders would take Montana and the Dakotas.

Clinton ended up doing better in New Jersey than expected, but in the case of landslides, the final numbers are often a bit off probably because of some fundamental behavior of variance. California was as expected, as was Montana. Sanders did much better in New Mexico (a closed primary, by the way) than expected, but still did not win.

The Dakotas are the enigma. The expectation was that Sanders would do very well in both states, better in South than North. It turns out that South Dakota totally reversed, with Clinton winning by four percent. In North Dakota, Sanders wiped Clinton out, not only winning by a large amount as expected, but trouncing clinton with what must be one of the highest margins all season.

With respect to my model (detailed here), I think we are looking at sample size and a few other things. I was within a fraction of a percent in the largest state, and the smallest states were the oddest. But, I also suspect different campaign efforts by the different candidates played a role. Also, when we talk about openness of the primary (or caucus) it is important to note that not all contests have corresponding Republican contests going on at the same time. That may be a big factor in the Dakotas.

In the end, there are two big winners today. Hillary Clinton had a resounding victory in the largest state, and did very well across the board otherwise. This comes hours after the press deciding to declare her the Winner-Apparent based on math, and it verifies that math. Sanders has continuously said he would fight to the convention, attempting to overthrow the process using super delegates. He seems to have not noticed that the entire Democratic Party is mad at him, even former Sanders supporters, and the super delegates’ job is actually to make an effort to maintain the spirit of the process when something goes wrong. Sanders is the thing that is going wrong at the moment — with his effort to reverse the democratic process — so there is zero chance that the Supers are going to come to his aid.

The second winner is, of course, Science by Spreadsheet. I’ve been running spreadsheets on elections since spreadsheets were invented, and this is the best cycle I’ve had. I’m pretty sure my model out performed all the other models. Perhaps I will summarize all that in another post at some point.

Can’t wait to get started on the electoral map.

I should mention that DC still has a primary to go, and it will go overwhelmingly for Clinton.

Explaining The Recent Extreme Weather: Global Warming

The human release of greenhouse gasses has ultimately caused changes in weather patterns so that major storm systems in the Northern Hemisphere get wetter and move along more slowly, causing significant rainfall events to occur at a much higher rate than previously. This has become a nearly ongoing phenomenon, with major floods in Canada, Colorado, Texas, Western Europe, Texas again, various places in Azia, more in Europe, Texas again, and so on.

The short version of the story: The jet stream is often fairly linear, traveling around the planet at a high speed, but it can also get all wavy and those waves can become “quasi resonant” meaning that they sit in the same place for a long period of time. Also, they go slower and thus move weather patterns along more slowly. This can cause the aforementioned major rainfall events, as well as persistent droughts. And we’ve had plenty of both of those.

I have written quite a bit about this, but especially this item (but see also this). And now we have more research confirming the findings.

The same (or overlapping) team of researchers that did this earlier work has a new paper out in PNAS. Here’s the summary material from the paper:

Significance:

Weather extremes are becoming more frequent and severe in many regions of the world. The physical mechanisms have not been fully identified yet, but there is growing evidence that there are connections to planetary wave dynamics. Our study shows that, in boreal spring-to-autumn 2012 and 2013, a majority of the weather extremes in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes were accompanied by highly magnified planetary waves with zonal wave numbers m = 6, 7, and 8. A substantial part of those waves was probably forced by subseasonal variability in the extratropical midtroposphere circulation via the mechanism of quasiresonant amplification (QRA). The results presented here support the overall hypothesis that QRA is an important mechanism driving many of the recent exceptional extreme weather events.

Abstract
In boreal spring-to-autumn (May-to-September) 2012 and 2013, the Northern Hemisphere (NH) has experienced a large number of severe midlatitude regional weather extremes. Here we show that a considerable part of these extremes were accompanied by highly magnified quasistationary midlatitude planetary waves with zonal wave numbers m = 6, 7, and 8. We further show that resonance conditions for these planetary waves were, in many cases, present before the onset of high-amplitude wave events, with a lead time up to 2 wk, suggesting that quasiresonant amplification (QRA) of these waves had occurred. Our results support earlier findings of an important role of the QRA mechanism in amplifying planetary waves, favoring recent NH weather extremes.

The paper is: Role of quasiresonant planetary wave dynamics in recent boreal spring-to-autumn extreme events, by Vladimir Petoukhov, Stefan Petri, Stefan Rahmstorf, Dim Coumou, Kai Kornhuber, and Hans Joachim Schellnhuber.