That’s Gingrich speaking at CPAC and brought to us by Right Wing Watch.

By the numbers, as estimated by various news agencies:

ROMN: 47
GING: 32
SANT: 13
PAUL: 07
OTHR: 01

That’s a mighty strong showing for “Other” … it will be interesting to look into that.

Here’s the sequence over the last several days showing the March of the Numbers comparing Romney and Gingrich in polls

The pattern we see in Florida reflects the pattern of the overall primary process. No one ever had any doubt that Romney was going to win this primary, but in fact, there were two times when he was not ahead in the polls, and at the last minute, note that Romney was dropping in numbers with Gingrich gaining . Ron Paul remains irrelevant.

Here’s the bigger picture. Before the Iowa Caucuses Romney was considered the most likely person to win. Santorum won.

Before the New Hampshire Primary was considered the most likely person to win. But Oscar the Grouch could have won that primary had he been from the Greater Boston Area, of which New Hampshire is a minor suburb.

Before the North Carolina Primary, Romney was considered to be the most likely person to win. Um. New Gingrich won that primary.

So, to date, the candidate who is repeatedly labeled as the most likely to win the nomination has won half of the contests and is being dogged by a formidable, if obnoxious, opponent.

Furthermore, TV pundits are getting something else wrong: They keep pointing out that Romney is already the winner of the big picture, and as evidence of this they proffer his superior numbers when compared to Obama, vis-a-vis the other Republican contenders. But they tend to fail to mention that when Republicans in general are polled nation wide, they pick Gingrich over Romney. Gingrich, not Romney, is the “big picture” likely winner according that to that set of data. The data for this polling goes way back in time, but let’s just go back through August.

Over the last several weeks, Gingrich and Romney have traded places at the top of the national preference race, with Gingrich currently winning.

Yet, we still hear that Romney is the presumptive winner.

The next races are Nevada (on Feb 4th), and Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri (on Feb 7th). How are the candidates polling there?

Gingrich is beating Romney in Missouri by a small margin. Gingrich is beating Romney by a very large margin in Minnesota. I don’t know of any data from the other states, but the all important Ohio, which is part of Super Tuesday (in March) has Gingrich and Romney neck and neck (Gingrich is up by one point currently).

So what is the pattern? A horse race. I suspect this is going to be a horse race through Super Tuesday, at which time the horses will count up the delegates. I also suspect that Gingrich will stay in this race as long as it is mathematically possible even if it would require a bolt of lighting to possibly win.

I no longer think Santorum is a factor. Did I mention that Ron Paul is irrelevant?

However, in comparing all of the candidates in polls asking people across the country which Republican they would vote for, Romney is NOT a clear winner. In fact, Gingrich tends to score a couple of points ahead of Romney. In one recent poll (NBC/Wall Street Journal) Gingrich was 9 points ahead. In the most recent poll (Gallup Tracking) Gingrich was just 2 points ahead.

But the preference for Gingrich does not align with national polls comparing the various republican candidates with Obama. In these polls, Romney tends to come closer to Obama’s lead than does Gingrich, who tends to get his ass whupped by the President, with Barack Obama showing a double-digit lead over the hapless and blithering ex-speaker.

But a lot can change in two days. Gingrich is on the attack against Romney, and his main point of attack seems to be to point out how Romney is on the attack against Gingrich. I don’t expect this to change the outcome of the Florida Primary. Romney will win there, although is it always possible that he will win by less than the current polls suggest. But what may happen over the longer term is a shift in the overall view of Gingrich and Romney by Republican voters in general. I expect there to be a downgrading of support for both “Front Runners” as they continue to slam each other. Santorum will come out a minor winner over the medium term, possibly even taking a state or two if his strategy is managed effectively and his money holds out.

Just for fun here’s Ron Paul’s attack ad ad d d attack attack ack ack ad d against Gingrich:

And here’s a video about Mitt Romney (this one’s been around a while):

And in Otter Matters:

Polling data from RealClearPolitics.

The “Date” is the approximate mid point of the polling period, and this crosses several polls summarized at Real Clear Politics. Notice that Santorum and Paul are a) sharing the same pole position in the polls. Last. That is what we expect of Paul and it is of no importance in his case because he is utterly irrelevant. But for Santorum, this is more interesting because he is a candidate that could move into a position of relevancy, and whom I will not rule out as a factor yet in this race. Still, he is in a holding pattern.

Gingrich’s move forward prior to the South Carolina primary seems to be holding; He is giving Romney a run for his money. It is not clear who will win this primary but if the final polling numbers are roughly like those in these polls, then neither candidate can really claim a clear victory, a sense of momentum, or any sort of dominance.

But a lot can happen in just under one week (to Florida) and in the time between now and the first Tuesday in March (Super Tuesday).

It has been pointed out (summarized by Ed Brayton) that the Republican Establishment is very worried about Gingrich running for President. There are two numbers that underlie this particular fear: 100 and 60. The second is Gingrich’s unfavorability number. It is a high number and it is solid. Unless he rescues a baby from a burning building and then stops himself from ruining it by talking about it, that number will not go down, though it could possibly go up. The first number is his name recognition. This is a huge problem. If his name recognition was lower he could try to shore up his dislikable-ness among those who have not learned to despise him yet (good luck with that, Newt!) but since everybody already knows him, and a strong majority of people dislike him, there is no chance of that happening. It is important to note at this time that Obama’s likability rating is much better than Gingrich’s.

If Newt Gingrich runs for the Republican Party, they will surely lose. If anyone else runs, they will probably lose as well, but if Gingrich Runs, they will defiantly, really, for sure lose.

For this reason, we can expect sabotage.

Ironically (and I chose that word because it is New’s favorite word … have you noticed that?) Romney is very likely to falter as the race continues for the very reason that Gingrich is the better candidate. Gingrich represents the Republican Party better than Romney does because Gingrich is a stupid hateful hypocrite who is as mean spirited as a rabid dog, and a racist shit. Romney, on the other hand, is merely stupid and hypocritical. More importantly, Gingrich has spent a lot less time acting like a Democrat than Romney has. When people around the country get to compare what is bad (from the point of view of a Teabagger or other Republican) about each candidate, they will be forced to admit that Gingrich is more like them, and represents their views, better than Romney.

Over time, Gingrich could actually turn his temporary lunge forward into a regular lead and defeat Romney.

Here’s the thing: Gingrich is likely to falter because he opens his mouth. Romney is likely to falter because he wont. Gingrich will say things that will get him in trouble, while Romney will refuse to address his changes in positions or his tax and income problems or Bain. Romney is especially bad at the demagoguery. When he tries it he smarm-overloads even the most cynical Right Winger.

So, there are two open questions before us, aside from that of the question of when it will all happen: 1) Which of the two current front runners will stumble clumsily into the mud on this track first and most and worst, and 2) will the Santorum, running a steady third place, be able to prance by the two of them in time to get some delegates.

There is no front runner. Santorum could become a contender. And, I’m not ruling out a brokered convention.

Amazingly, Mitt Romney is in the lead according to a recent poll by the Des Moines Register, going into Tuesday’s caucuses, but the lead is slim. And the configuration of the field seems at least a little stable. The CNN poll of December 28th shows this pattern:

Mitt Romney 25
Ron Paul 22
Rick Santorum 16
Newt Gingrich 14
Rick Perry 11
Michele Bachmann 9
Jon Huntsman 1

… and the Des Moine Register poll shows this pattern:

Mitt Romney 24
Ron Paul 22
Rick Santorum 15
Newt Gingrich 12
Rick Perry 11
Michele Bachmann 7
Jon Huntsman 2
Not Sure 7

Interestingly, according to the Des Moines Register poll, Santorum and Perry share a 15 point lead for “second choice” and have relatively low numbers for the “Like Least” category. They are followed by Not Sure (14) with Romney coming in at 13 for the Second Choice category. The most “lease liked” is Rick Perry (15) with Romney (13) and Bachmann (12) close behind.

In some ways, this is the most interesting part of the poll:

Gingrich is the most knowledgeable by far. I guess that is because he is a professor. Bachmann is the least knowledgeable but not by as much. I guess that’s because she’s a moron. Paul wins for reducing debt and having the smallest ego.

Romney leads the back by a large margin in being the “most electable” and Bachmann and Paul are almost tied for “lease electable.”

Interestingly, Huntsman is very ver ylow on “the most consistent” rating while Romney is fifth from the bottom. That surprises me. Otherwise, most of this makes sense except the part about Ron Paul’s ego.

What do you think?

OK, that’s all funny and everything, but I’m very disappointed in both the producers of this piece and in some of the attitudes associated with it.

First, where the hell is Michele Bachmann? Michele produces a “Greatest Moment” every time she opens her mouth! Has Bachmann’s ever flowing river of crazy become the new normal, so that it isn’t even noticed by political satirists anymore? That, my friends, is exactly what I warned about when she first started running. Well, I said that mainly in my own head, but I’m sure you figured it out too. Bedtime for Bonzo isn’t just a think you say when it is bed time. Its a movie starring the man considered by the majority of Americans to be the greatest president who ever existed in the United States of America.

The second thing that is somewhat disappointing is, of course, the polarization. The woman commenting on Gingrich’s child labor remark expressed my feelings exactly. Gingrich’s suggestion to enslave the poor children of the inner cities to clean toilets is a bad idea, but one that can be transformed into a good one. A youth jobs program is a great idea. They used to be more common, and have often been part economic stimulus. But not like Gingrich says. More like the lady in the video says.

And finally, since Michele Bachmann was left out of this video, here’s a makeup video, with Sarah Palin:

I love the Boston Accent on Paul.

A couple years back there was an incident of an elected (state level) official contacted by some sort of citizens group for a meeting (a normal thing to happen) and he/she let slip that this group would never have an audience because of opposition during the election.

The other day a gay man asked New Gingrich about his position on engaging gay people once in office, and Gingrich’s reply was to tell the man to vote for Obama.

I asked him if he’s elected, how does he plan to engage gay Americans. How are we to support him? And he told me to support Obama,” said Arnold. […]

“When you ask somebody a question and you expect them to support all Americans and have everyone’s general interest,”Arnold said. “It’s a little bit frustrating and disheartening when you’re told to support the other side. That he doesn’t need your support.”

quoted from the Des Moines Register, here.

So, here’s what I think. Republican candidates, while running for office, should be presented with lists … during the debates would be a good time … of different factions of Americans, and then they must declare if they will represent these people or not once elected.

Will you or will you not be an effective, thoughful, and fair representative for …

• Gay people
• Transgender people
• People who support single payer health care
  Union member
• …
• And so on and so forth

Then these results can be vetted by the press (they are so good at that, after all) and adjusted to reflect realty, and the results hung by the voting booth so people are clear on what they are doing when they pull the lever.

Any single one of these stooges running for the republicans, including and maybe especially, New Gingrich, could be the next president of the United States if a) enough liberal stay home and b) enough liberals and progressives vote for a third party or do some other stupid thing, ensuring that Obama is not re-elected.

Gingrich has stated that he would use the Federal Marshall Service to arrest judges who make decisions that he does not agree with. Consider the following interview:

SCHIEFFER: One of the things you say is that if you don’t like what a court has done, that Congress should subpoena the judge and bring him before Congress and hold a Congressional hearing… how would you enforce that? Would you send the Capitol Police down to arrest him?

GINGRICH: Sure. If you had to. Or you’d instruct the Justice Department to send a U.S. Marshal.

From Think Progress.

So, get all passive aggressive at Obama, maybe you get Gingrich.

The report alleges an extra-marital bout or possibly multiple bouts of oral sex, which, the accuser notes, was Gingrich’s preferred activity so he could later say that he “had not slept with” whomever. Seems to me you could just have sex and not go to sleep and say that but whatever.

An, yes, I checked. Gingrich was in the House in 1988, when the republicans started their “Nuclear Strategy” which they have continued to use since then, initiating the new approach to Ruining America at very opportunity by impeaching the President of the United States for what was by all accounts a poorly executed … well, let’s just say, it all depends on what is is. Right, Newt?