As you know I’ve created a multivariable model that has a good record of predicting primary and caucus outcomes in the contests between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. For the rest of the primary season, this is what it looks like.

I used yellow highlighting to indicate who is expected to win the most delegates on each primary/caucus day. Sanders will do well in Wisconsin, tie (or maybe even better) in Wyoming, do well in Indiana, and on balance, do well on June 7th when there will be six contests at once including Pennsylvania. But while Sanders may win the day on three (or four) days, Clinton will win the day on five. In total, Clinton is predicted to take 886 delegates, and Sanders 790.

This is the distribution of cumulative delegates starting with now and moving across this range of primary dates, showing the evolution of the difference between the two candidates throughout.

On balance, Clinton will, according to this model, will widen her lead over Sanders. If Sanders does better than projected this gap will narrow, but he’ll have to do very well to close the gap.

Wisconsin’s controversial law that limited the rights of public sector unions and sparked recall elections was struck down on Friday by a Wisconsin judge.

Republican Governor Scott Walker, who survived a recall election earlier this year that stemmed from passage of the collective bargaining law, said after the ruling that he was confident the state would ultimately prevail in an appeal.

“Sadly a liberal activist judge in Dane County wants to go backwards and take away the lawmaking responsibilities of the legislature and the governor,” Walker said in a statement.

Yes, yes, we are all ensaddened, Governor Walker. But not by your stupid law being struck down.

In any event, the issue is now in the courts. We shall see what happens.

[the judge] ruled that eliminating collective bargaining rights for municipal employees including teachers violated the workers’ right to free speech, association and equal protection.

He also ruled that the law’s requirement that Milwaukee city workers make pension contributions violated a home-rule provision in the state constitution.

Several provisions “single out and encumber the rights of those employees who choose union membership and representation solely because of that association” in violation of their free speech and association rights, Colas found.

Struck down on several accounts because of flagrant violation of the US constitution and other considerations. Those damn liberal judges.

Walker’s big mistake: Not first (somehow) making it so Unions could not use Lawyers.

Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett is in the lead in that primary and will likely take it. He is the guy who was defeated by Walker in the previous election for governor, in 2010. The margin then was about 5%.

The two likely candidates, Barrett and Walker, seem to be tied in polls as to who will win. If you are interested in seeing Walker defeated, tomorrow would be a good time to donate to Barrett’s race (assuming he wins). His web site is here. If you are in Wisconsin, you are probably already involved or donating. And if you are not involved or donating, this would be a good time to ask yourself the fundamental question: “Why do I even exist if I am essentially useless?”

The fact that there is a recall underway is itself a great thing (though I think it would have been nice if the voters of Wisconsin had done the right thing to begin with!). But having the recall process actually lead to Walker being replaced would be a spectacular statement. This would only be the third time such a thing has happened in US history, and it would be a clear message to the teabaggers; “we think you are poopyfaces!” (or words to that effect).

What were the earlier recalls?

In 1921, Lynn Frazier was removed as Governor of North Dakota through the recall process over political issues. Frazier was a socialist and favored government ownership of banks and industry, so anti-socialist forces removed him. More recently, Gray Davis was removed by recall in California in 2003 by an effort initially funded by the wealthy Darrell Issa, a right-winger who wanted to be governer and thought this would be a good way to do it. Turns out Arnold Schwarzenegger took the job instead.

Related: Arizona Governor Evan Mecham was recalled in Arizona when the secretary of state certified a successful petition and an election was scheduled for May 17th, 1998. However, Mecham was impeached in February, a process that took a few months but resulted in his removal from office prior to the recall election. That was over misusing government funds.

Walker was targeted for recall after he pushed through a law last year that effectively ended collective bargaining rights for most state workers. It also forced the workers to contribute more to their pension and health care costs, which amounted to a cut in pay.

Walker told reporters he would be willing to mobilize the National Guard in order to address potential repercussions from unions.

source

With Tuesday’s deadline fast approaching, The New York Times reports that Wisconsin’s activists are prepared to submit about 720,000 petition signatures, far surpassing the 540,000 needed to trigger a recall election later this year.

Before the election can proceed, the state’s election board will have to build a $100,000 database of registered voters and check each petition signature against the list. Assuming that more than 540,000 entries are valid, Walker will face the possibility of being only the third governor in U.S. history to be removed by recall election.

It will be interesting to see, if possible, how many petitions were faked. Remember a while back the Tea Party promised to do that? And if they did, it will be interesting to see if charges are filed.