Over the last several days, I went over every one of the US House races. Scan upwards in my post-stream to see the alphabetical treatment.

Looking at every race conservatively, and calling a turnover when it is certain, I count a net of 12 turnovers. That moves the Republican majority from 47 to 23. Respectable, but not world changing.

There are probably three or four races that people will be able to make strong arguments about that I chose not to count as turnovers. And, for every one I count as a turnover, there is approximately 1.5 races that are close enough that a magical and very powerful blue wave would push into the Dem column. So, I could take my 12 turnovers, make it 15, then add that times 150%. That would be VERY optimistic. It would rsult in Democrats having about 11 more seats than Republicans. This is extremely unlikely.

Indeed, even though chances of the Democrats winning the Senate are very low, they might be, in my opinion, higher than the chances of the Democrats winning the house.

We need to win both. We are likely to win neither. There is a very small chance we’ll win one. Nearly zero chance we’ll win both.

Keep in mind that is has almost always true for every race in recent decades, the Republicans pull 2 or three points out of their hats at the last second, I believe not counting voter suppression. This just has to do with how people poll, vote, and act. It is actually possible that my estimate of 12 turnovers will turn out to be too large a number.

There are three house races in New Jersey that are said to be on the line for Republicans.

In New Jersey’s 7th District, Democrat Tom Malinowski is slightly ahead of Leonard Lance, the incumbent Republican, according to 538 and various polls. But not impressively so. The mid September Siena/NYT poll, the most recent, puts Republican Lance ahead by one point. A mid September poll by Monmouth puts Malinowski ahead by 4.5 points. That’s about it. We are not impressed. It is not possible to put this race in the turnover category.

In New Jersey’s 3rd District, Republican Incumbent Tom MacArthur is slightly behind Democratic challenger Andy Kim. MacArthur was well head of Kim in mid summer, slowly lost ground, and then the Kavanaugh Moment came and their positions reversed suddenly. That reversal is signaled in a Siena/NYT poll that put Kim ahead by an astonishing 10 points. Otherwise, however, the argument looks weak. Democratic leaning or controlled polling agencies had the Republican leading or even tghrough the summer. Stockton University issued a non partisan poll just a few days ago tghat puts MacArthur on top by 1.4 points. Overall, this looks like a totally fake Blue Wave. If you stand back a way and squint, it looks like the Democrat is going to win. If you look at the actual data, it looks like the Republican is going to win. This is not a turnover.

New Jersey’s 2nd district has Frank LoBiondo, Republican representing it. He is not running for re-election. Fivethirthyeight puts Democratic candidate Jeff Van Drew well ahead of the Republican candidate Seth Grossman. There is only one poll, from Stockton, putting the Democrat at 55, and the Republican at 32.

Even though there is only one poll, it is strong, and other indicators suggest the Democrat will win. I am not overwhelmed with the evidence, but I’m OK with putting New Jersey’s 2nd district down as a Republican to Democratic turnover this year.

A really big and powerful blue wave could blue up New Mexico’s 2nd district, but probably not.

You will see the claim being made that Chris Collins, New York’s 27th district Republican, will certainly not lose, being an indicted conspirator in stock market insider trading, using his personal position as a Congressperson and all. But all the indicators are that Collins, the first member of the House to endorse Donald Trump, is secure. He will be re-elected, and this will not be a turnover. No turnovers in New York.

Pennsylvania 1st, 5th, 6th, 7th, have all been cited as possible turnover districts.

Pennsylvania’s 1st district Republican incumbent, Brian Fitzpatrick, is neck and neck with Democratic clanneger Scott Wallace. A very recent Siena/NYT poll places Wallace over 7 points ahead. This is regarded by 538 as a tossup. During the primaries, the Democrats cast 49,000 votes while the Republicans cast 47,000 votes. The Republcians are campaigning dirty, and there is the idea that this is backfiring on them. Even though I avoid labeling true tossups (as this looks) as turnovers, I actually like Wallace in this race enough to suggest that this is very likely a Turnover.

The 5th is currently represented by Glenn Thomson, Republican. Democratic challenger Mary Gay Scanlon is thought to be doing very well there, but with no polling data at all. But the experts are so sure, and fivethirtyeight has the race so clearly a Democratic win, I’ll take Pennsylvania 5th as a turnover.

Pennsylvania’s 6th congressional district is currently held by Republican Ryan Costello, and he is not running for re-election. There is no polling data here, but experts widely agree that Democrat Chrissy Houlahan is whipping the butt of Republican Greg McCauley. Again, I defer to the local experts on the ground and I’ll consider this race to be a turnover.

Pennsylvania’s 7th district is a new district with no incumbent. The Democrat is likely to win, according to experts. This district is mostly made up of an older district that was represented by a Republican, so this will count as a turnover.

So, when all is said and done, Pennsylvania will either give us 4 R to D turnovers, or alternatively, disappoint as it did in 2016. I’m hoping that Pennsylvania feels bad about 2016 and does the right thing this time around.

Polls and experts all agree. Virginia 10th’s incumbantg republican Barbara Comstock will lose to Democratic challenger Jennifer Wexton. This will be a turnover.

Iowa‘s 1st district is currently represented by Republican Rod Blum, who seems to be firmly behind Democratic challenger Abby Finkenauer, according to 538. Finkenauer has been ahead across several polls in this much polled race, since last February. That includes partisan polls both Democratic and Republicans, as well as the Siena NYT poll and Emmerson College.

This is a takeaway.

Republican incumbent Peer Roskam, in Illinois 6, is somewhat likely to lose to Democratic challenger Sean Casten. The numbers are not statistically separated, but Casten is pulling forward quickly, but mainly in Democratic leaning partisan polls. As recently as early September, the Siena College NYT poll put Roskam ahead by one point. Yet, 538 puts Casten at a slightly higher chance of winning. I’m going to hold off on this and suggest that Casten wins with a large Blue wave.

Illinois 12th district has a Republican incumbent, Mike Bost, with a strong Democratic challenger, Brendan Kelly, who is statistically almost identical, but slightly behind. There is a Green Party candidate, Randy Auxier, running in that race with 3 points. With the Green Party candidate there, I can’t give this race to the Democrats except in a strong blue wave which, hopefully, sinks the Green as well as Red.

In Kansas’s 3rd district, Democrat Sharice Davids seems highly likely to pull off a take away from Republican incumbent Kevin Yoder. The polling is strong, and 538 gives their odds at close to 8:2

Kansas 2nd district is currently held by Republican Lynn Jenkins, who is not running for re-election. Democrat Paul Davis is a tiny bit ahead of Republican Steve Watkins. Polling is sparse and the numbers are variable. This is not one to put in the takeaway list, but it could move there, and is definitely a race to watch.