Bernie Sanders re-elected

6:22 PM Central: Virginia reporting good numbers for Obama. Larger turnouts than 2008 in VA.

6:54 PM Central: Senate: 30 DEM seats called, 37 GOP seats.

Leaving the polling place today, there was a couple behind me. She said, “Well, that didn’t take long.” He said “And it was easy. I have a system.” “What’s the system.” “If the person is an incumbent, I don’t vote for them.”

Then, me, in my head “… idiot …”

More money spent this year in Minnesota’s 8th district than in all races in that district ever to date, combined, including mayorial, county, and EVERYTHING and we are only slightly exaggerating. That’s up on the Iron Range.

West Va called for Romney

Republicans lose about 1.7% of the vote every presidential election year because they are the white party and that’s the loss rate of whiteosity in the US.

Current Electoral Vote: Romney 153, Obama 123

Called Races:
OBAMA 79
Vermont CALLED Obama
DC CALLED Obama
Illinous CALLED Obama
Maine CALLED Obama
Maryland CALLED Obama
Massachusetts CALLED Obama
Connecticut CALLED Obama
Delaware CALLED Obama
Rhode Island CALLED Obama
New Jersey CALLED Obama
New York CALLED Obama
Michigan CALLED Obama

ROMNEY 82
Georgia CALLED Romney
Indiana CALLED Romney
Kentucky CALLED Romney
South Carolina CALLED Romney
West Virginia CALLED Romney
Oklahoma CALLED Romney
Alabama CALLED Romney
Mississippi CALLED Romney
Tennessee CALLED Romney
Arkansas CALLED Romney
Texas CALLED Romney
Lousiana CALLED Romney
Kansas CALLED Romney
Nebraska CALLED Romney
North Dakota CALLED Romney
South Dakota CALLED Romney
Wyoming CALLED Romney

Leaning/Trending:
Florida: Leaning Obama
New Hampshire: Leaning Obama
North Carolina Obama
Ohio, less than one percent, Romney doing STRONG
Virginia, Romney ahead

I actually don’t like states being called at 1 percent or less of the vote counted, even if those states are almost certainly going to go a certain way. Makes a mockery of the system. I suppose not doing it would make a mockery of statistics.

Which reminds me of an argument I had today with a young man who does not understand data or statistics or inference or anything. Imagine the following situation: My neighbor goes out into his yard every now and then and mows his lawn. I make the assertion to you that I believe that he does so when he thinks his grass is too long and needs to be cut. Now, here’s the question: What is the chance that it is true that he really does believe his grass is too long and this is what motivates him to cut it? Now, alternatively, I tell you that I went over to him while he was mowing the lawn and asked him why he was doing that. I report to you that he said “The grass got long, that’s why I’m cutting it.”

Now, here’s the question: Do you think he belived the grass was too long in either of these cases? How mush stock would you put in my guess regarding his motivations, vs my reporting to you what he said his motivation was.

The young man insisted that my guess as to my neighbor’s motivation was totally unusable as data, there were thousands of alternative reasons he might be mowing his lawn, and my assumption that he is cutting his lawn becauase he believes it to be too long is “confirmation bias.” Meanwhile, he claimed that reporting the man’s answer to the question about his motivation was solid unquestioned data about his motivations. What do you think?

OK, back to Election 2012!

7:00 PM Central PBS coverage is starting.

15 states are closed. I’ll put the new results above

PBS says they have a very nifty “multichannel” live stream thingie. But, everhone on the planet just tried to access it and it appears to be dead.

BIGGEST current news, Virginia extended poll hours, turnout HUGE, reporting delayed.
OTHER BIGGEST CURRENT NEWS Ohio early voting will be reported at 8:30 local

2 out of 5 Romney supporters, generally, in the polling over recent months supported Romney mainly to beat Obama (the black guy) not to support Romney.

7:20 PM CENTRAL Bill Nelson won in Florida for Senate, the Republicans were hoping to take that but didn’t. But overall the Senate race data isn’t interesting yet. The guy running against Nelson did not do well because he did not run well. (Nelson had replaced Katherine Harris, if you want to beak out in a cold sweat)

7:40 Chris Murphey, Dem, beats McMahon in Connecticut for Senate. That was a competitive race. That was earlier Lieberman’s seat, so this is sort of a Dem pickup.

Exit polls in Ohio: People favor auto bailout.

Virginia: Voter turnout is AMAZING … some people waited five hours to vote. The board of election had delayed release of results. People are still in line nearly two hours after polls closed. Maybe.

8:00 North Carolina, too close to call, could go either way. Romney always claimed a lock, maybe not.

8:10 PM Central … Missouri Senate … Remember Senator Legitimate Rape Guy Aitkin? Hmmm. thought there was going to be some reporting on that but I’m only seeing wild speculation. This might force me to tell you my one Missouri story….. but prob. not.

Competitive Penn Dem Senate race, Republicans had hopes for, goes Dem.

CBS News projects that the Republicans will maintain control of the house.

Obama gets Pennsylvania!!!

8:25 PM

Senate races: Pennsylvania, Bob Casey returns
Debbie Stabenow in Michigan, Dem incumbant
Amy Klobuchar wins by a huge landside
Kirsten Gillibrand wins, incumbant Dem.
Ted Teapartier Kruz Republican, new senator, replacing a Democratic woman, I think.

8:30
Sherrod Brown wins in Ohio.

8:40PM Central
Romney must get some combination of Florida, Ohio and Virginia. I like maybe all three. Not looking good. He’s still winning, though.

Elizabeth Warren wins in Massachusetts. FUCK YAH TEDDY!!!!

Joe Kennedy III to the HOuse from Mass

Romney lost in MA, where he was gov. He lost in Mich, where he is from and his dad was gov.Now, he lost NH, home of his vacation home

And now, for some state and local results… maybe …

Oh never mind. No results.

9:55 We’ve got about 13 percent of the votes counted in Minnesota with a lot of conservative counties not represented yet, but the two constitutional amendments … gay marriage and voter ID … are not doing well. They are both showing a less than 50% result (needed to be passed) and are actually being voted down by a majority that is voting “No”

Also, North Carolina just called for Romney

Obama wins California, Hawaii,

10:14: Obama has been called as winner by CNN. On PBS, however, they won’t interrupt an interview with R.E. to celebrate. Strange.

1) He totally randomized his policies, thus putting into effect an excellent version of the Chewbaca Defense;

2) He made up his own rules, forcing Obama to follow them and embarrassing PBS and Jim Lehrer; and

3) He made a bunch of independents giddy, so when the post-debate polls were carried out, he ends up winning or being statistically even in key swing states.

Today’s polls are worrisome unless you hate America and The Earth. Obama is up only 2 points across the board, and Romney has pulled ahead (though statistically even) in Florida and Virginia. Ohio has become a toss-up.

Future debates might be different. For one thing, the Obama camp will probably have a better strategy. Both Obama and Lerher were blind sided by Romney’s approach. There will be a different moderator for the next debate, CNN’s Candy Crowley. I know nothing about her, but I imagine she watched the first debate and is already trying to figure out how to contain Mr. Priv. So, a second factor will be both the moderator and the approach taken. Third, the next debate will be in a town meeting format. Obama always does well with real people, and Romney tends to say the wrong things when confronted with real humans, often demonstrating his well known disdain. Also, this will be a “crowd” that the Romney camp will have less than the usual control over.

Over the days before the first debate, almost everybody seemed to have decided that the election was already over.

The election is not already over.

California 6th House District Bera vs Lungren – Latest info – This is a very close race but observers have lately started to suggest that Bera has a better chance of beating the Republican incumbent now than even a few weeks ago.

California 24th House District Capps vs Moldonado – Latest info – This is a very close race mainly owing to redistricting which put long-time incumbent Capps in more conservative district. I think if the election was held today, Capps would win.

Florida 18th District Murphy vs West – Latest info – The candidates appeared to be in a statistical dead heat in polling that is about a month old. The Republican incumbent, West, is a classic tea-party candidate, and if that sort of thing is wearing as thin in Florida as it is elsewhere, that means that a one month old horse race may have turned into a more current slight lead by the challenger, Patrick Murphy.

Illinois 10th House District – Schneider vs Dold – Latest info – There are no recent polls for this race, and the older polls show very mixed results. The challenger, Democratic party’s Schneider, has recently been said to be potentially doing better by various observers, but with no real data to back that up.

We’ll look at more of these later. For now, note that Real Clear Politics is predicting 183 solid or likely victories for the Democrats, and 229 solid or likely victories for Republicans, which adds up to 412 members. RCP indicates 29 tossup districts, and those two numbers unfortunately adds up to 441, which is six more than the number of voting members of the House. RCP has included the Virgin Islands, DC and such in their count, which is not appropriate because it is the majority of voting members that determines majority. Anyway, if we ignore that for a while, then every single one of the RCP “tossup” districts would have to go Democratic, and then some, for the good guys to gain a majority. Having said, more unlikely things have happened in house elections before.

This ad comes at a time when Jim Graves has been shown in polls to be statistically even with (but a couple of points by count behind) Bachmann. So far, Bachmann has been relatively silent, which was probably a good move for her because she seems to have a hard time not spewing Crazy Talk when she doesn’t remain silent. This move by the GOP PAC, to underscore Bachmann’s crazy, is probably a good thing for the Graves campaign.

Notice that in the ad, they try very hard to get a picture of Graves, who is a calm, mild mannered, reasonable, thoughtful person, to have a crazy Bachmann-like look in his eyes, while at the same time making Bachmann not look so crazy. Unfortunately for the Bachmann campaign, it is a little late for that.

And there are polls to indicate that this may be the case. Jim Graves, Michele Bachmann’s DFL opponent in the Sixth District Race in Minnesota, is creeeping closer and closer to Bachmann’s numbers, and it is possible that this race could even up over the next few weeks.

From the Minnesota Progressive Project:

A new poll conducted by Greenberg Quinlan indicates that Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) is more vulnerable to her Democratic challenger than previously believed.
The polling firm surveyed about registered likely voters in the Sixth Congressional district of Minnesota from August 29 to August 30. The results indicate only forty per cent of the voters in Bachmann’s politically conservative district rate her performance “Excellent/Good.” Thirty-five per cent of those polled rate Bachmann’s performance “Poor.”

Asked who they would vote for if the election were held today, forty-eight per cent of those polled indicated that they would vote for incumbent Bachmann and forty-six per cent indicates they would vote for her opponent Jim Graves, a newcomer to politics.

Minnesota Political expert Bill Pendergast gives his analysis of this here. That site is getting a lot of sudden attention so it may take a moment to load, give it time.

Of critical importance is the fact that Graves has a strong advantage for future movement of the polls. From MinnPost:

The poll also show that Graves’ name ID in the district has jumped 20 points, though he’s still largely unknown at 38 percent. Meanwhile, Bachmann is known by 99 percent of voters. That will make it harder for Bachmann to change peoples’ perceptions about her, while Graves should be able to influence people who do not yet have an opinion of him.

This is not the only race in Minnesota that has a chance of replacing a Republican with a Democrat. Stay tuned.

If I go south to Iowa, which I’ve done mainly to get somewhere requiring me to go through Iowa, I can tell I’m getting close to the border because a huge red barn looms on the horizon, and that barn, which is fake, is known as the Top of Iowa Visitor’s Center. It’s on Interstate 35 (God’s personal highway) and from there south it’s just a couple of hours to Ames, which will be important to know about in a moment.

The barn is funny to me for this reason: If you go past the big red fake barn and keep an eye off to the west, right away you’ll see another big red barn that is actually on a farm, and it looks pretty much the same. Then, if you keep going on Interstate 35, or get off Interstate 35 and hit some of the side roads, you’ll see more and more of those big red barns. We’ve got a lot of barns in Minnesota, and not far from where I grew up there were a lot of barns, and I hear they have them in California, but Iowa has the lock on the big red barns. I scoured the web for a shot of one, just a regular big red farm barn like they have all over the place in Iowa, and found this one by Carl Wycoff, kindly placed on Flicker with a creative commons copyright. Here’s Carl’s picture, click on it to go to the original:

(While you’re over there, have a look at this shot too. Very nice.)

I mention the barns for this reason: If you’ve been watching the news about the so-called Iowa Caucus, there are two images you can not have missed. The most common one, of course, is the big red barn in the background of every outdoor shot. You might have been thinking that this was some kind of setup, some sort of diversion, or a trick to make you think the people of Iowa are genuine or something, but where they build the big red fake barn movie set and shoot all the politicians in front of it. But no, that’s not it at all. You can’t swing a dead muskrat in Iowa without hitting the broad side of a big red barn. That’s how it is. Iowa is for real.

But it is funny to me that we pay attention to the so called “Iowa Straw Poll.” Which is actually the Ames Straw Poll, one of several held around the state, but the only one we count. We as a nation ask the Iowans their opinion about who should be the leader of our entire country, and we pay a lot of attention to what they say, and it matters. But really, who are the Iowans and why should we care about what they say?

For one thing, it is important to note that something like 20,000 people max ‘vote’ in the straw poll. Seven one hundreds of a percent of our population, who live mainly in central Iowa, represent all of us for this event. How typical is Iowa of the rest of the country? And, does the nation go as goes Ames?

Iowa is 91.3 percent white. It is 84% “white not Hispanic.” By comparison, the North Star State is 85%/83. For a further comparison, the coolest county in Minnesota is 74/72. For the US it’s 72/74. Iowa is quite white.

US average income is about 27K/50K (personal/household) For Iowa it’s 25K/48K. But while the national poverty level is 14%, in Iowa, it’s 11%. About 29 percent of US business are woman owned. In Iowa it’s 25 percent. These all sound like similar numbers, like Iowa is typical, but that’s how it goes when you look at entire states. Iowa is a bit off the average in all ways that the typical red state is.

But still, the State of Iowa is in the middle, both geographically (it is kinda in the middle of the US, if you look at a map) and demographically, economically, and in the other usual ways. So, given this, why is it that Iowans are … well, the way they are? And what, exactly, do I mean by that?

This is where the turtle races come in. The turtle races are held in Longville, Minnesota. There are other places that have turtle races these days, like Niswa, Minnesota and I hear there’s one somewhere else nearby, but Longville is the original and the only one of any importance. It is held every Wednesday during the summer. Main street is closed down, so to drive through town you have to go on the dirt roads. A turtle race looks like this:

First, you’all get in a big ring with your reptiles and line them up on the edge:

Then, when the race starts, you jump up and run away.

Then, the turtles, which do not like being on the hot pavement, run away. The first one to get to the outer ring wins. The one that goes the least distance also wins.

This is done several times and then, at the end, all the winning turtles in both the speed category and the slow poke category go for that weeks’ championship.

The turtle race iteslf is fun, but that is not the part that relates to Iowa or Iowans. The part that relates to Iowa and Iowans is before the turtle race.

Before the race, a stage is set up from which the races are called, and booths are set up where kids can play silly games, and local merchants set up tables to sell their wares, and food vendors show up to sell food. The most popular food vendor is probably the “mini donut” truck which sells mini donuts, but mainly, sells deep fried cheese curd and deep fried funnel cake (Every culture has a form of funnel cake).

So, the stage is set up, the vendors are set up, and the crowd is thickening with people who have come to the northern part of Minnesota to enjoy the boating, the fishing, the mosquitoes, and the turtle races. But the races are not ready to start yet. Something else has to happen first.

The master of ceremonies for the Turtle Races, who I assumed for a long time was the Mayor of Longville (but I was apparently wrong) turns up the megaphone and draws the crowd’s attention.

“Welcome to the Longville Turtle Races”

Everybody turns and a smattering of applause happens.

“We’re going to have a great day today, if the rain holds out!”

More clapping.

“We’re going have some great turtle racing in a minute, but first we’ve got a few other things to do!”

Clapping, some cheering.

“First, let me ask you, how many of you are from Iowa?”

Cheering, hundreds of hands go up. Most of the Iowans are standing near the Turtle Race arena or near the adjoining kiddie booths. Most have already acquired the button and ribbon and sticker that they will wear for the race. The button has a number on it and the sticker, which comes off the ribbon, has a corresponding number, and is affixed to the turtle. They’ve paid a buck or two per race. The ribbon also has the race number (there are ten). So they’re standing around in the middle of main street, maybe 150 of them, most with turtle race ribbons, hands in the air declaring that they are form Iowa, and the people standing out father, on the sidewalks or farther up main street, are watching them and they don’t have their hands up. They are the Minnesotans.

“Anybody from North Dakota?”

One guy’s hand goes up.

“South Dakota?”

No hands are raised.

“So, South Dakotans… they don’t like turtles. But I’m glad to hear there’s lots of Iowans here! Welcome to Minnesota!”

Cheers and clapping.

“And we’re going to get to the turtle races in a few minutes, but first, you all know what it’s time for!”

And now, cheering and clapping, but this time from the Minnesotans standing around the edge. The Iowans are not sure what it’s time for.

“It’s time for the Chicken Dance.”

And at this point, the Iowans are rounded up into the middle of the turtle racing arena and made to do the Chicken Dance.

Iowans doing the chicken dance. Sorry for the bad quality of the footage: It was taken with a camera hidden in a deep fried cheese curd.

They love it. They were not expecting this bonus activity. And they’re pretty darn good at it. A couple of local teenagers instruct them from the stage.

“That was great. But now it’s time for the … The Hokey Poky!”

And the Iowans do the Hokey Poky. And boy, are they good at that! Many are quite inventive.

“That was wonderful! Now, it’s time for the Macarena!”

They kill the Macarena.

“OK, everybody, let’s see you dance to YMCA!”

There is a bit of hesitation because it is a gay dance, but they comply.

“And now it’s time for the hoola hoop contest!”

And there are four versions of the hoola hoop contest. Several Iowans will be going home with trophys this week! Well, not exactly trophys, but gift certificates that can be used to buy a portion of an ice crime cone at the ice cream shop on Main Street.

And then, finally the Turtle Race. And if you win the turtle race, which cost you two bucks to enter, you get a gift certificate worth 50 cents towards the purchase of an ice cream cone or candy bar.²

And then, they go home and elect the leader of the free world.

But not really. Because the Ames Straw Poll (which is known as the Iowa Straw Poll) has predicted the outcome of the United States general election for President of the Unites States of America …. exactly once.

In 1980 George HW Bush won the poll but Ronald Reagan won the nomination and presidency. In 1987 Pat Robertson won the poll, but George HW Bush Won the nomination and presidency. In 1995 Bob Doll and Phil Gramm tied the poll, Bob Dole won the primary Bill Clinton won the presidency. In 1999 George W. Bush won the poll, the primary, and the presidency. They got that one right. In 2007 Mitt Romney won the poll, John McCain won the primary, and Barack Obama won the presidency.

Oh, and now we get to the item I mentioned above … I said that if you’ve been paying attention to the poll related news, you’ve repeatedly seen two images, a big red barn and another one. The other one is, of course, Michel Bachmann, who won the poll this year.

Photo by Toby Harnden

The Iowa poll started out as bunch of Iowans expressing their opinions very early in the presidential race, but it has turned into an activist run event (and this probably happened early) and tends to favor the crazies. Pat Roberston is the guy who blamed the Haiti earthquake on a deal that 18th century Hatians made with Satan. Phil Gramm is only slightly less insane than Pat Robertson. George W. Bush … well, the entire country went crazy for that decade. And now, Michele.

So the poll rarely predicts anything. It certainly does not shape anyone opinion. Mainly, it’s a big giant chicken dance, run by outsiders who bring the Iowans together and get them to put on a show which may or may not have political utility for someone, but certainly has little to do with what we need to do as a nation. Which would be, well, not racing turtles.

Iowa. You are a stupid state. Please try to do better.

¹You guessed it: They worked for a publishing company.
²I brought a friend to the Turtle Races a few weeks ago and we watched all this happen. And while I was there I calculated in my mind how much money the good citizens of Longville, Minnesota, of which there are 271, make in this city-run event. I’m pretty sure that they don’t need to pay taxes! Thank you very much Iowa!

Photos of the turtle race by the author.

If you are annoyed with Michele Bachmann’s racism and anti-gayism please donate to a candidate that opposes her. She is using the video you watched to raise money. Good idea.

Do spread this video around, please.

Below the fold: Michele Bachmann’s gay step sister and her friend in DC supporting Obama.

Helen LaFave and Nia Wronski at the Inauguration Jan. 20, 2009 from julie phillips on Vimeo.

Hat Tip Dump Bachmann

Have a look at this recently reposted item by Bruce Wilson at Talk to Action. While you’re over there you might want to lok at Jack Hayford Backs Odd Theory: Sex With a Demon Drove Down Japanese Stock Market, which relates to my post yesterday.

Hat tip Glenn Burke.

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

I always thought homosexual were savage. Glad to see the Illuminati are in charge still.

Thank you Right Wing Watch and Rachel Maddow. Hat Tip PZ Myers.