Comments on: Everyone in the US will be vaccinated by early August. https://gregladen.com/blog/2021/02/28/everyone-in-the-us-will-be-vaccinated-by-early-august/ Wed, 03 Mar 2021 22:13:41 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.4.8 By: dean https://gregladen.com/blog/2021/02/28/everyone-in-the-us-will-be-vaccinated-by-early-august/#comment-922025 Wed, 03 Mar 2021 22:13:41 +0000 https://gregladen.com/blog/?p=33721#comment-922025 Time for a little levity.

https://twitter.com/JuliaLMarcus/status/1367159066531880961

]]> By: Jeffh https://gregladen.com/blog/2021/02/28/everyone-in-the-us-will-be-vaccinated-by-early-august/#comment-922020 Wed, 03 Mar 2021 21:28:20 +0000 https://gregladen.com/blog/?p=33721#comment-922020 Dr. Michael Ryan of the W.H.O. said today that it is unrealistic to expert the pandemic to end this year. I agree. Of course mass vaccination is going to help, but it is going to be a long time – perhaps well into 2022 – before life will return to anything close to normal. The sooner we face that reality, the better we will be. We will win, but it is going to be a protracted battle. The third wave is beginning here and the rush towards ending restrictions in states like Texas and Mississippi is a recipe for disaster.

Over here in the EU the vaccination program creeps along. I am 63 but I will probably not be vaccinated until late in April or even after that.

]]> By: Greg Laden https://gregladen.com/blog/2021/02/28/everyone-in-the-us-will-be-vaccinated-by-early-august/#comment-922011 Wed, 03 Mar 2021 15:32:20 +0000 https://gregladen.com/blog/?p=33721#comment-922011 The concept of herd immunity involves randomness within the herd. Humans are not a herd, of course, but it approximates. But, if the subset that is not immune is not random, than strange things can happen.

]]> By: dean https://gregladen.com/blog/2021/02/28/everyone-in-the-us-will-be-vaccinated-by-early-august/#comment-921886 Tue, 02 Mar 2021 17:43:47 +0000 https://gregladen.com/blog/?p=33721#comment-921886 In reply to Howard Brazee.

Pfizer has a trial ongoing with children in the 12-15 year old range, but it only got off the ground a short time ago. They’ve reached their desired number of subjects.

Moderna’s trial for 12-17 year olds is getting started but enrollment is proving slow. They predict they won’t have any progress on a study or data for children 11 and younger until next year (2022).

]]> By: Howard Brazee https://gregladen.com/blog/2021/02/28/everyone-in-the-us-will-be-vaccinated-by-early-august/#comment-921871 Tue, 02 Mar 2021 16:10:43 +0000 https://gregladen.com/blog/?p=33721#comment-921871 I’m mostly concerned about when the kids get vaccinated.

]]> By: Greg Laden https://gregladen.com/blog/2021/02/28/everyone-in-the-us-will-be-vaccinated-by-early-august/#comment-921713 Mon, 01 Mar 2021 16:11:29 +0000 https://gregladen.com/blog/?p=33721#comment-921713 In reply to dean.

Right on the line, but I’m trying to dumb it down a bit..

Anyway, I agree with our concerns, and they are correct, but I built in a 30 day buffer!

]]> By: dean https://gregladen.com/blog/2021/02/28/everyone-in-the-us-will-be-vaccinated-by-early-august/#comment-921709 Mon, 01 Mar 2021 14:58:30 +0000 https://gregladen.com/blog/?p=33721#comment-921709 Path or curve, technically, not a line, but point well taken.

I’m a little less optimistic about your timeline. Interference with vaccine availability by right-wing governors, as we’re already seeing to some extent in Florida, is one reason. The others — all the uncontrollable things that can happen: severe weather hampering distribution, manufacturing issues, etc. Too many years of being a general pessimist I guess. (I have to say I am amazed/disturbed by the number of people I teach with and live near who say they aren’t going to get vaccinated because “none of the vaccines have been carefully tested”. The same reason across the board.)

But absent all those things I would agree with your estimate. My wife gets her 2nd Pfizer vaccine this Wednesday (part of the local school system). I’ll have to wait until May to turn 65, unless things change. But it’s closer every day.

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