\u201cHi Professor.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cOh, hello, RP, come on in. Great to finally have a student come by for office hours! What can I do you for?\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cWell, Professor, I think I\u2019ve narrowed down my undergraduate thesis topic, and I wanted to run it by you and see what you think.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cCertainly, my boy, that\u2019s a great idea. Much better to get some input on the project near the beginning so you don\u2019t end up going off the rails later on! So, have a seat and tell me what you were thinking.\u201d<\/p>\n
RP remained standing.<\/p>\n
\u201cWell, eventually I want to prove that global warming isn\u2019t so bad.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cWhoa, hold on a second, that\u2019s rather begging the question, don\u2019t you think? We don\u2019t prove or disprove something like that. We propose hypotheses and them and the data and the science lead us where they may. I\u2019m pretty sure global warming has a down side, but even if I didn\u2019t know that, I wouldn\u2019t think you\u2019d start out an undergraduate thesis with a presumption it is good or bad.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cWell, professor, I get that, but I actually wanted to look at the damage cost of bad storms, how that goes down rather than up over time, but first I just wanted to show that there are fewer hurricanes.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cUm, RP, you can ask the question, \u2018Is there a change in hurricane frequency\u2019 for a certain time range, or \u2018is there a change in damage costs\u2019 then see if it goes up or down, but you can\u2019t set out to \u2018prove there are fewer\u2026\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cOh, I\u2019ve got data, Professor, I just need to work out the statistics. So I have a plan.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cWell, OK, then, what\u2019s the plan, then? Tell me about your data? A quick warning, first. Hurricanes are actually rare beasts, when you think about it. Think about most statistics. To characterize a population you want minimally dozens of observations. To look at change over time you might want dozens a year. That\u2019s the only way to track something like hurricanes.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cOK, fine, professor. Well, first, I am going to look only at Atlantic hurricanes.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cRP, the Atlantic hurricane basis is the smallest one, it has the fewest hurricanes. Plus, under global warming while tropical storms are expected to increase, it is thought the Atlantic may experience frequent years with significantly attenuated tropical storm activity owing to Saharan dust and teleconnections with \u2026\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cRight, then, I\u2019m only going to look at the biggest ones, maybe just Category 3 and 4.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cRP, that is exactly the opposite of what you should do, that reduces your sample size even more you should include all\u2026\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cThen, I\u2019m only going to count landfalling hurricanes.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cRP, you have pretty much guaranteed that your sample sizes are going to be too small, you\u2019ve latched on to the part of the system with the highest variability and \u2026\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cSo thanks for the great advice, professor, I\u2019ve got to go!\u201d<\/p>\n
RP steps out into the hallway and sees his friend. \u201cHey, wait up, Andy, I\u2019m done with my meeting about my thesis!\u201d The door closes behind him. <\/p>\n
Office hours can be so lonely. Even when a student actually shows up. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u201cHi Professor.\u201d \u201cOh, hello, RP, come on in. Great to finally have a student come by for office hours! What can I do you for?\u201d \u201cWell, Professor, I think I\u2019ve narrowed down my undergraduate thesis topic, and I wanted to run it by you and see what you think.\u201d \u201cCertainly, my boy, that\u2019s a great … Continue reading The Dismal Office Hour<\/span>