Ask anybody who knows anything and they’ll tell you that no one has ever won both the Iowa Caucuses and the New Hampshire Primary and then failed to go on to win their party’s nomination. But look a little deeper and you’ll see that this is not a very firm model for what can happen in the upcoming primary. First, even though the New Hampshire Primary has been going on a long time, the Iowa Caucasus have only been running since 1972, which means there have been 10 of them. And the total number of times someone has won both is is once for the Democratic party (if you exclude sitting presidents or a vice president heir apparent) and the only time its ever happened with the Republicans (again, not counting sitting presidents or heir apparent VP’s) is, well, never. <\/p>\n
Therefore, if Mitt Romney wins the New Hampshire Primary, it really means nothing. He only won the Iowa Caucuses by fewer than 20 votes, so really, he and Santorum share the lead. And, winning both is simply something that has happened so infrequently when there was an open field that it matters not.<\/p>\n
So, what do the polls say? The Suffolk-7News tracking poll currently shows Romney on top with a commanding 35 percent, with the hapless and hopeless Ron Paul a distant 20, and the “He was a dark horse last week” Rick Santorumm Huntsman, and Gingrich all with about 10 points plus or minus. So, at the lower end of the field, anything could happen.<\/p>\n
The times that the New Hampshire Primaries have mattered, some unusual results have happened. White Supremacist and general all round dick Pat Buchanan had that one surprise victory. Harold Stassen won once. And remember last time around? Obama, then Clinton, then Obama, etc. etc.? <\/p>\n
That, by the way, is what I’m predicting this time around. Romney will probably take New Hampshire but he will not maintain the lead in the Republican Party, or if he does, it will be tenuous. We see the same configuration going into South Carolina as New Hampshire, so I may be sticking my neck out with this prediction, but I’m fairly sure New Hampshire has earned its reputation for producing surprises. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Ask anybody who knows anything and they’ll tell you that no one has ever won both the Iowa Caucuses and the New Hampshire Primary and then failed to go on to win their party’s nomination. But look a little deeper and you’ll see that this is not a very firm model for what can happen … Continue reading Who will win in New Hampshire and what will it mean?<\/span>