{"id":5798,"date":"2012-01-01T12:55:41","date_gmt":"2012-01-01T18:55:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/freethoughtblogs.com\/xblog\/?p=1793"},"modified":"2012-01-01T12:55:41","modified_gmt":"2012-01-01T18:55:41","slug":"romney-leads-for-iowa-but-numbers-suggest-he-is-not-really-a-favorite","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/2012\/01\/01\/romney-leads-for-iowa-but-numbers-suggest-he-is-not-really-a-favorite\/","title":{"rendered":"Romney Leads For Iowa, but numbers suggest he is not really a favorite"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The Iowa Caucus (not to be confused with the mostly bogus Iowa Straw Poll, where Michele Bachmann bought herself a good lead) will be held Tuesday.  A Caucus is an actual political event and it is not insignificant.  If you hear someone say &#8220;Oh, caucuses don&#8217;t mean anything&#8221; or &#8220;A caucus is not a real thing&#8221; or whatever, start asking them questions and you&#8217;ll quickly learn that they don&#8217;t know much about the political process.  Very likely, they&#8217;ve never been to one.  Have you? If you haven&#8217;t, and your state has them, give it at try!<\/p>\n<p>Amazingly, Mitt Romney is in the lead according to a recent poll by the Des Moines Register, going into Tuesday&#8217;s caucuses, but the lead is slim.  And the configuration of the field seems at least a little stable.  The <a href=\"http:\/\/caucuses.desmoinesregister.com\/2011\/12\/28\/romney-and-santorum-rise-gingrich-falls-in-new-cnn-poll-in-iowa\/\">CNN poll<\/a> of December 28th shows this pattern:<!--more--><\/p>\n<p>Mitt Romney 25<br \/>\nRon Paul 22<br \/>\nRick Santorum 16<br \/>\nNewt Gingrich 14<br \/>\nRick Perry 11<br \/>\nMichele Bachmann 9<br \/>\nJon Huntsman 1<\/p>\n<p>&#8230; and the <a href=\"http:\/\/caucuses.desmoinesregister.com\/2011\/12\/31\/romney-leads-paul-in-new-des-moines-register-iowa-poll-santorum-surging\/\">Des Moine Register poll<\/a> shows this pattern:<\/p>\n<p>Mitt Romney 24<br \/>\nRon Paul 22<br \/>\nRick Santorum 15<br \/>\nNewt Gingrich 12<br \/>\nRick Perry 11<br \/>\nMichele Bachmann 7<br \/>\nJon Huntsman 2<br \/>\nNot Sure 7<\/p>\n<p>Interestingly, according to the Des Moines Register poll, Santorum and Perry share a 15 point lead for &#8220;second choice&#8221; and have relatively low numbers for the &#8220;Like Least&#8221; category.  They are followed by Not Sure (14) with Romney coming in at 13 for the Second Choice category.  The most &#8220;lease liked&#8221; is Rick Perry (15) with Romney (13) and Bachmann (12) close behind.<\/p>\n<p>In some ways, this is the most interesting part of the poll:<br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_1794\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1794\" style=\"width: 500px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/freethoughtblogs.com\/xblog\/2012\/01\/01\/romney-leads-for-iowa-but-numbers-suggest-he-is-not-really-a-favorite\/dmr_iowa_poll\/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-1794\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/freethoughtblogs.com\/xblog\/files\/2012\/01\/dmr_iowa_poll-500x381.jpg?resize=500%2C381\" alt=\"screenshot of part of iowa poll\" title=\"dmr_iowa_poll\" width=\"500\" height=\"381\" class=\"size-large wp-image-1794\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-1794\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Detailed thinking on the Republican Candidates in the Iowa Caucus. <\/figcaption><\/figure><\/p>\n<p>Gingrich is the most knowledgeable by far.  I guess that is because he is a professor. Bachmann is the least knowledgeable but not by as much.  I guess that&#8217;s because she&#8217;s a moron.  Paul wins for reducing debt and having the smallest ego.  <\/p>\n<p>Romney leads the back by a large margin in being the &#8220;most electable&#8221; and Bachmann and Paul are almost tied for &#8220;lease electable.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Interestingly, Huntsman is very ver ylow on &#8220;the most consistent&#8221; rating while Romney is fifth from the bottom. That surprises me.  Otherwise, most of this makes sense except the part about Ron Paul&#8217;s ego. <\/p>\n<p>What do you think?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Iowa Caucus (not to be confused with the mostly bogus Iowa Straw Poll, where Michele Bachmann bought herself a good lead) will be held Tuesday. A Caucus is an actual political event and it is not insignificant. If you hear someone say &#8220;Oh, caucuses don&#8217;t mean anything&#8221; or &#8220;A caucus is not a real &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/2012\/01\/01\/romney-leads-for-iowa-but-numbers-suggest-he-is-not-really-a-favorite\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Romney Leads For Iowa, but numbers suggest he is not really a favorite<\/span> <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[341,284,346,347,301,306,311],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p5fhV1-1vw","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5798"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5798"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5798\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5798"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5798"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5798"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}