![\"\"](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/LineGoingUp-650x535.png?resize=604%2C497\")
I ask you to consider the following questions. Assume the vertical scale on the y-axis is 10:<\/p>\n
1) What is the average value of this line?<\/p>\n
2) What is the average value of the last 20% of the line, over to the left?<\/p>\n
3) Assume the “line going up” is in fact upward-going indefinitely. This is the first ten units of time. What will be the average value of the second ten units of time?<\/p>\n
4) Given the same assumption, what is the average value of all 20 units of time?<\/p>\n
5) If you were asked to predict the total magnitude (all the areas under the curve) for all of the curve, for the next 10 units of time only, what would it be?<\/p>\n
Answers:
\n1: about 5.
\n2: About 8
\n3: About 15
\n4: About 10
\n5: A lot, but it runs from about 10 to about 20, so if it is that many units per day, about 150 (the average of 10 and 20 times 10).<\/p>\n
I know you got all those questions right. So, now that we can do baby analytical geometry and statistics, have a look at this:<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/EvVgPWSWQAUlhDK.png?resize=604%2C380\")
<\/p>\n
This graph shows an upward trend. We know the trend is somewhat open-ended up to about 7 million a day, with new vaccines coming on line. The drop before the recent mode, which casues an average that would have been about 2.0 million per day, was caused by a preternatural natural disaster (Texas). So, the best estimate of curent production is much closer to 2.5, not 1.7, and that rate will continue to go up so in about four weeks it will be closer to 4 million a day. This is not just based on me looking at the graph and sucking my thumb. This is what the experts are saying. April through July would be 600 million doses, many of which would be one shot doses of the newest vaccines. In other words, every eligible person in the US will be vaccinated by the end of July, comfortably.<\/p>\n
That is a very conservative estimate.<\/p>\n
Why to people take perfectly good data combined with clear projections from the health experts and turn them into bald face lies? Oh, it is not a lie you say, just a mistake. No, I reply, it is impossible to make a mistake like this and publish it in bloomberg. This is a lie, designed to get a rise out of the readership, and that lie regardless of its intent will contribute to the gloom and doom and that has consequences.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Everyone eligible and who wants to, that is. Have a look at this line. I call it “line going up.” Feel free to download it and use it for your own purposes. I ask you to consider the following questions. Assume the vertical scale on the y-axis is 10: 1) What is the average value … Continue reading Everyone in the US will be vaccinated by early August.<\/span>