I’ve been doing analyses of house races in which I fairly conservatively evaluated each of the close races. Here, I use a slightly different approach. I use only the most recent non partisan poll to estimate the chance of a Democrat vs. Republican winning the race.<\/p>\n
When I do this, I get just enough Democrats winning to remain a minority but by only one seat. However, that puts seven seats NOT in the Democratic column because they are estimated to be at exactly 50-50.<\/p>\n
These seats, clearly key, are FL26, KY06, MI11, NM02, NY19, OH12, and UT04.<\/p>\n
If those are really 50-50, then a conservative two or three seats among them will be Democratic at the end of election night, and the Democrats will have a slim majority in the House.<\/p>\n
If we insert a magical blue wave, raising all the chances of Democrats winning by one percentage point, then the Democratic majority is much larger, to the tune of about 27 seats. A two percent blue wave gives the Democrats, interestingly, just a few more, to reach 35 seats.<\/p>\n
However, that is unlikely, if the Blue Wave is already factored into the polls.<\/p>\n
We might think of there being two Blue Waves. Or, a Blue Wave and a Blue Tide added together. Or a Blue High Tide with a Blue Storm Surge on top of it. Whatever. Point is, there is the general, expected, electorate, which I assume the polls cover, and that may be enough. But added to this is the added votes from the ever mythical “they never vote but they might come out this one time,as if” vote. That is where the one or two percent extra could come from. I suspect the effects of that extra spring tide may be seen in only some districts.<\/p>\n
Here is my raw data, ranked from highest proportion to Democrats to lowest. Feel free to argue.<\/p>\n
PA05 0.60
\nPA06 0.60
\nMN02 0.57
\nVA10 0.57
\nCA49 0.57
\nPA07 0.56
\nPA17 0.56
\nAZ02 0.56
\nKA03 0.56
\nCO06 0.55
\nNJ07 0.55
\nFL27 0.54
\nIO01 0.54
\nMN03 0.53
\nKA02 0.53
\nIO03 0.51
\nIL06 0.51
\nCA10 0.51
\nMN01 0.51
\nCA45 0.51
\nNJ11 0.51
\nNY22 0.51
\nCA39 0.51
\nME02 0.51
\nFL26 0.50
\nKY06 0.50
\nMI11 0.50
\nNM02 0.50
\nNY19 0.50
\nOH12 0.50
\nUT04 0.50
\nCA25 0.50
\nTX32 0.49
\nIL14 0.49
\nPA01 0.49
\nTX07 0.49
\nNJ03 0.49
\nNC09 0.49
\nCA48 0.49
\nFL15 0.49
\nMI08 0.48
\nVA02 0.48
\nVA07 0.47
\nNC13 0.47
\nMN08 0.41
\nPA14 0.40<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
I’ve been doing analyses of house races in which I fairly conservatively evaluated each of the close races. Here, I use a slightly different approach. I use only the most recent non partisan poll to estimate the chance of a Democrat vs. Republican winning the race. When I do this, I get just enough Democrats … Continue reading The House Democrats and the Big Blue Wave<\/span>