![\"\"](\"\/\/ir-na.amazon-adsystem.com\/e\/ir?t=grlasbl0a-20&l=am2&o=1&a=0393354768\")
, you will find out that the ancient history of the southern colonies may have provided some of the groundwork for this sort of thing, shockingly.<\/p>\nBut I don’t believe it. I don’t think most people in Alabama don’t care that Roy Moore has a history of harassment and assault of young girls. In fact, there is evidence that they do care. There is talk that Moore was banned from a shopping mall in the 1980s because he was going after the young girls. The Alabamans associated with the Gadsden Mall, if this report turns out to be true, noticed, cared about, and eschewed Moore-style behavior.<\/p>\n
Moore’s victories have had the following three characteristics: 1) They are rare; He has not come close to winning every race; 2) They are meager. He has an OK showing at the polls, but nothing to cause us today to say he is unbeatable, not by any means; and 3) They are existentially unimpressive. He won when there was a tide going his way, or his opposition was divided.<\/p>\n
I believe that Roy Moore believes himself to be unbeatable. I actually think it is possible that he will quit before the election, but if that happens it will happen this week, otherwise, not at all. This is a suspicion I have because it seems that things are going on of which we can not see the details, on the surface, and strong political forces are lining up to wipe him out. But this will probably not happen, and his hubris will be hard to reckon with, and his hubris will likely cause him to go to the mat in December.<\/p>\n
But that hubris will not sway Alabama voters. The polls show a close race, and forces of civilization, which have at least a toehold in Alabama, are converging. Fewer people will vote for him than you might think.<\/p>\n
Also, there is a statistical argument to make. Polls show the race close. Moore historically wins at just around 50% or less. So, we can’t assume that a large majority support him. The population of Alabama includes about 26% African American citizens, and a couple of percent other, mainly Hispanic. Roy Moore is not a candidate for the non-white.<\/p>\n
Alabama is 63% protestant, including 37% baptist, and 6% Snake Handlers. Some of those protestants are the ones willing to vote for someone like Moore just for religious reasons. No one else wants to do that. About 8% are non-Christian (including Mormon and Jehovah’s Witness, with 1% Jewish) and about 6% non-religious. Assume that distribution is roughly reflected across white voters (though it is more likely that the 6% non religion is more white). This means that fewer than 63% of 74% of the voters, or about 47% at most, are going to stick with Roy Moore because they hold nearly identical religious beliefs, including the idea that child molestation and other crimes, as well as being anti-Constitutional, are unimportant as long as one will follow the directives of the local ministers while in office. So, even the raw demographics which is the most powerful predictive model I know of, shows that this will be a very close race, with Moore unlikely to win.<\/p>\n
Take a 50-50 race and add all the things biasing in only one direction. The candidate that is being carried away by that tide will lose.<\/p>\n
Roy Moore will not be elected to the United States Senate by the good people of Alabama.<\/p>\n
Probably.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
The last four polls show Moore ahead of Jones by 6% and 10%, even, and Jones ahead of Moore by 4%. All these polls were done over the last week, and there is no temporal trend to speak of. This means, of course, that the race is not fait accompli. While Moore is more ahead … Continue reading Roy Moore will not be elected to the United States Senate by the good people of Alabama. Here’s why.<\/span>