{"id":22230,"date":"2016-03-05T08:49:52","date_gmt":"2016-03-05T14:49:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/scienceblogs.com\/gregladen\/?p=22230"},"modified":"2016-03-05T08:49:52","modified_gmt":"2016-03-05T14:49:52","slug":"the-sanders-hypothesis-this-weekends-primaries","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/2016\/03\/05\/the-sanders-hypothesis-this-weekends-primaries\/","title":{"rendered":"The Sanders Hypothesis: This Weekend’s Primaries"},"content":{"rendered":"

This weekend there are Democratic Party primaries or caucuses in Kansas, Louisiana, Nebraska, Maine and Puerto Rico. The model I developed for predicting primary and caucus outcomes<\/a> indicates the following results as most likely:<\/p>\n

\"Screen<\/a><\/p>\n

Sanders is losing the primaries, so far, and Clinton is on the path to victory. However, Sanders has a fair amount of time to catch up. Perhaps he just needs his strategy to take hold. The idea was to have a revolution, which in this case, means a lot of people show up. A lot of people did show up, but not enough. Sanders needs to get the rest of them to show up in these states! (My model<\/a> only addresses states, sorry Puerto Rico, and yes, you should be a state).<\/p>\n

So, in a way, this weekend’s events are individual tests for the hypothesis that Sanders can pull his nuts out of the fire and catch up to Clinton. (Unlike Republicans, we speak not of genitalia here<\/a>, but rather, chestnuts. Roasting. In the open fire of politics. You’ve heard the expression, right?)<\/p>\n

This could be a good weekend for Sanders in terms of victories. I’m predicting he takes Nebraska, possibly Kansas, and certainly Maine. Three wins all at once will invigorate his campaign.<\/p>\n

However, note that these numbers are from a model that predicts a Clinton lock on the nomination <\/a>by mid April. A sign that Sanders is doing better than that projection would be doing less badly in Louisiana, and significantly better in Nebraska and Kansas. I don’t think doing better than projected in Maine will mean much, because there is a probably favorite son effect there.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This weekend there are Democratic Party primaries or caucuses in Kansas, Louisiana, Nebraska, Maine and Puerto Rico. The model I developed for predicting primary and caucus outcomes indicates the following results as most likely: Sanders is losing the primaries, so far, and Clinton is on the path to victory. However, Sanders has a fair amount … Continue reading The Sanders Hypothesis: This Weekend’s Primaries<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":22113,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[1759,774,772,2531,2532,2533,2534,1760],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p5fhV1-5My","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22230"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=22230"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22230\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=22230"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=22230"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=22230"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}