{"id":22119,"date":"2016-02-09T13:43:40","date_gmt":"2016-02-09T19:43:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/scienceblogs.com\/gregladen\/?p=22119"},"modified":"2016-02-09T13:43:40","modified_gmt":"2016-02-09T19:43:40","slug":"who-won-the-new-hampshire-primary","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/2016\/02\/09\/who-won-the-new-hampshire-primary\/","title":{"rendered":"Who won the New Hampshire primary?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>At about 9 PM eastern, with 90% of the votes counted in the Democratic primary, <strong>Sanders is showing a strong win<\/strong>.  He is currently at about 60%, while Clinton is at 38%.  That gap is significantly larger than what I had intuitively established at the cutoff for a Sanders &#8220;lower than expectation loss.&#8221; So, congratulations Bernie Sanders! If those numbers hold, that is a decisive win.<\/p>\n<p>(A lot of Sanders supporters were crowing about a 20% lead in the polls, which seemed kind of extreme at the time. They may end up being proven right!)<\/p>\n<p>In the Republican primary, with about 90% reporting, <strong>Donald Trump has been declared the winner<\/strong>, with 35% of the vote.<\/p>\n<p>Kasich is being declared second, with 16%<\/p>\n<p>Then we have Cruz (11.6%), Bush (11.1%), Rubio (10.5%), and Christie (7.5%) followed by Fiorina and Carson (insignificant).<\/p>\n<p>Note that the gaps between the third and lower candidates is so small that the sum of &#8220;write in&#8221; and lower level candidates that could not possibly have won is enough to have allowed for a strategic repositioning of second or third place.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>At about 9 PM eastern, with 90% of the votes counted in the Democratic primary, Sanders is showing a strong win. He is currently at about 60%, while Clinton is at 38%. That gap is significantly larger than what I had intuitively established at the cutoff for a Sanders &#8220;lower than expectation loss.&#8221; So, congratulations &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/2016\/02\/09\/who-won-the-new-hampshire-primary\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Who won the New Hampshire primary?<\/span> <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":22120,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[1759,2340,774,772,2472,499,2470,1760,964],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p5fhV1-5KL","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22119"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=22119"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22119\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=22119"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=22119"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=22119"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}