{"id":20556,"date":"2014-10-22T20:39:55","date_gmt":"2014-10-23T01:39:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/scienceblogs.com\/gregladen\/?p=20556"},"modified":"2014-10-22T20:39:55","modified_gmt":"2014-10-23T01:39:55","slug":"when-was-the-last-17-year-long-hiatus-pause-in-global-warming","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/2014\/10\/22\/when-was-the-last-17-year-long-hiatus-pause-in-global-warming\/","title":{"rendered":"When was the last 17 year long hiatus (pause) in global warming?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Some time in the 1970s.<\/p>\n<p>I keep hearing about this 17 year long pause in global warming.  So I went and looked.  I did a regression analysis of the last 17 full years of surface temperatures from the GISS database.  There is an upward trend in warming during this period and it is statistically significant.<\/p>\n<p>Then I calculated a &#8220;running slope&#8221; over 17 year long periods from the beginning of the record (plus 8 years) to the end of the record (minus 8 years).  For each slope I tested to see if the slope was less than +0.1 (the average slope across the record is 0.75).  If a year centered on any 17 year period had a low or negative slope as defined, I counted it as a year in a Hiatus.  I then made a chart showing when these hiatuses happened.  They used to be more common, but it has been quite a while since the last one:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblogs.com\/gregladen\/files\/2014\/10\/Hiatus_in_global_warming.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblogs.com\/gregladen\/files\/2014\/10\/Hiatus_in_global_warming-610x411.png?resize=604%2C407\" alt=\"Hiatus_in_global_warming\" width=\"604\" height=\"407\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-20557\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Since 2014 is not over yet, I did not include it. But, the last &#8220;year&#8221; (12 month interval) was the warmest 12 month interval for the entire record.  2014 is likely to be in the top two or three warmest years globally on record, quite possibly the warmest.  That is not going to help the now discredited hiatus theory very much.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Some time in the 1970s. I keep hearing about this 17 year long pause in global warming. So I went and looked. I did a regression analysis of the last 17 full years of surface temperatures from the GISS database. There is an upward trend in warming during this period and it is statistically significant. &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/2014\/10\/22\/when-was-the-last-17-year-long-hiatus-pause-in-global-warming\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">When was the last 17 year long hiatus (pause) in global warming?<\/span> <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":19557,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[856,148,20,97,2505],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p5fhV1-5ly","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20556"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=20556"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20556\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20556"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=20556"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=20556"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}