PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS
\nNWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
\n830AM EDT THURSDAY OCT 16 2014<\/p>\n
SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS<\/p>\n
THE MAIN FACTORS THAT USUALLY INFLUENCE THE SEASONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK INCLUDE:
\n1) EL NINO AND LA NINA – WHICH TOGETHER COMPRISE EL NINO\/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION
\nOR ENSO. IMPACTS OF THESE EVENTS ARE SUMMARIZED BY SEPARATING 3-MONTH
\nOBSERVATIONS FROM 3 OR MORE DECADES INTO EL NINO, NEUTRAL, AND LA NINA SETS,
\nAVERAGING EACH SEPARATELY, AND THEN COMPUTING ANOMALIES. THESE ARE CALLED “ENSO
\nCOMPOSITES”, WHICH ARE USED AT TIMES TO SUBJECTIVELY MODIFY THE FORECAST.
\n2) TRENDS – APPROXIMATED BY THE OCN TOOL AS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MOST
\nRECENT 10-YEAR MEAN OF TEMPERATURE OR 15-YEAR MEAN OF PRECIPITATION FOR A GIVEN
\nLOCATION AND TIME OF YEAR AND THE 30-YEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL PERIOD (1981-2010).
\n3) THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) – AFFECTS CLIMATE VARIABILITY WITHIN
\nSEASONS.
\n4) THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO) AND THE PACIFIC – NORTH AMERICAN (PNA)
\nPATTERNS – WHICH AFFECT ANOMALY PATTERNS ESPECIALLY DURING THE COLD SEASONS.
\nTHESE PHENOMENA ARE CONSIDERABLY LESS PREDICTABLE ON A SEASONAL TIMESCALE THAN
\nENSO.
\n5) THE PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO) – AN ENSO-LIKE PATTERN OF CLIMATE
\nVARIABILITY AFFECTING THE TROPICS AND THE NORTH PACIFIC AND NORTH AMERICAN
\nREGIONS, BUT WHICH VARIES ON A MUCH LONGER TIMESCALE THAN ENSO.
\n6) PERSISTENTLY DRY OR WET SOILS IN THE SPRING AND SUMMER AND SNOW AND ICE
\nCOVER ANOMALIES IN THE WINTER. THESE FACTORS TEND TO PERSIST FOR LONG PERIODS
\nAND ACT AS A KIND OF MEMORY IN THE CLIMATE SYSTEM.
\n7) STATISTICAL FORECAST TOOLS – CANONICAL CORRELATION ANALYSIS (CCA), SCREENING
\nMULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION (SMLR), CONSTRUCTED ANALOGUE (CA) AND ENSEMBLE CCA
\n(ECCA).
\n8) DYNAMICAL FORECAST MODELS – INCLUDING THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM
\n(CFS). AN EXPERIMENTAL MODEL FORECAST SYSTEM, THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL
\nENSEMBLE, COMPRISED OF SEVERAL MODELS AND DESIGNATED NMME, MAY ALSO BE USED
\nEXPERIMENTALLY AND SUBJECTIVELY UNTIL IT IS INCLUDED INTO THE CONSOLIDATION. AN
\nINTERNATIONAL MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE DESIGNATED IMME IS ALSO AVAILABLE.
\n9) CONSOLIDATION (CON) – AN OBJECTIVE, SKILL-WEIGHTED COMBINATION OF THE OCN,
\nCCA, SMLR, ECCA, AND CFS FORECASTS IS USED AS A FIRST GUESS IN PREPARING THE
\nFORECAST MAPS. THIS TECHNIQUE MAKES OPTIMUM USE OF THE KNOWN SKILL OF FORECAST
\nTOOLS.<\/p>\n
CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC OBSERVATIONS ARE CONSISTENT WITH ENSO-NEUTRAL
\nCONDITIONS WITH A STILL FAVORED TRANSITION TO EL NINO CONDITIONS IN LATE AUTUMN
\nAND WINTER. A WEAK EL NINO EVENT IS MOST PROBABLE, HOWEVER THERE REMAINS A
\nCHANCE OF EITHER A LOW-END MODERATE EVENT OR CONTINUED ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS
\nDURING THE UPCOMING OUTLOOK PERIOD.<\/p>\n
THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR NOVEMBER-DECEMBER-JANUARY (NDJ) 2014-15 INDICATES
\nELEVATED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL MEAN TEMPERATURES FOR ALASKA, THE FAR
\nWEST, ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONTINENTAL U.S. EASTWARD TO INCLUDE PARTS
\nOF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC. BELOW-NORMAL MEAN TEMPERATURES ARE MOST
\nLIKELY OVER AREAS FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES.<\/p>\n
THE NDJ 2014-15 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK INDICATES ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF
\nBELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN
\nROCKIES, GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN
\nPRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EASTWARD ACROSS THE
\nSOUTHWEST, SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND ALONG THE GULF AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COASTS
\nNORTHWARD TO INCLUDE THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
\nPROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ALSO ENHANCED OVER PARTS OF
\nSOUTHERN ALASKA.<\/p>\n
IN AREAS WHERE THE LIKELIHOODS OF SEASONAL MEAN TEMPERATURES AND SEASONAL
\nACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE SIMILAR TO CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES,
\nEQUAL CHANCES (EC) IS INDICATED.<\/p>\n
BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKS
\nNOTE: FOR GRAPHICAL DISPLAYS OF THE FORECAST TOOLS DISCUSSED BELOW SEE:
\nHTTP:\/\/WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV\/PRODUCTS\/PREDICTIONS\/90DAY\/TOOLS\/BRIEFING<\/p>\n
CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS<\/p>\n
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC REMAIN MOST
\nCONSISTENT WITH AN ENSO-NEUTRAL STATE, WHILE CONTINUING TO SHOW SOME INDICATORS
\nFOR POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF AN EL NINO. OBSERVATIONS DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF
\nOCTOBER SHOW POSITIVE SST DEPARTURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC
\nBASIN, WITH GREATER THAN +0.5C ANOMALIES IN THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC AND FAR
\nWESTERN PACIFIC. WITHIN THESE AREAS THERE ARE ANOMALIES GREATER THAN +1.0C. THE
\nNINO3.4 REGION CONTINUES TO HOVER NEAR +0.4C WITH VALUES OF +0.5C FOR NINO4,
\n+0.6C IN NINO3, AND +0.6C IN NINO1+2. SST ANOMALIES INCREASED IN THE
\nEAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC DURING THE LAST MONTH. OCEAN SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE
\nANOMALIES CONTINUE TO SHOW POSITIVE VALUES RANGING FROM +1.0C TO +3.0C FROM THE
\nSURFACE TO A DEPTH OF ABOUT 125 METERS ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC.
\nMOREOVER, POSITIVE ANOMALIES ARE ALSO EVIDENT AT A DEPTH FROM 100 – 200 METERS
\nNEAR AND JUST WEST OF THE DATE LINE.<\/p>\n
MONTHLY AVERAGED OLR ANOMALIES REMAIN MIXED ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC WITH
\nTHE GREATEST ANOMALIES AWAY FROM THE DATE LINE WITH TWO AREAS OFF OF THE
\nEQUATOR SHOWING ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER THE FAR WESTERN PACIFIC. MONTHLY
\nAVERAGED LOW- AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE, INDICATING THAT THE
\nATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO RESPOND OVER THE PACIFIC TO ABOVE AVERAGE
\nSSTS.<\/p>\n
PERSISTENT, STRONGLY POSITIVE SST ANOMALIES WERE OBSERVED IN THE NORTH PACIFIC,
\nALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF NORTH AMERICA, AND WESTWARD ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL
\nPACIFIC OCEAN. THIS SST PATTERN PROJECTS WEAKLY ONTO A POSITIVE PDO. POSITIVE
\nSST ANOMALIES WERE ALSO OBSERVED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. IN ADDITION,
\nANOMALOUS SNOW COVER EXTENT HAS ALSO INCREASED IN RECENT WEEKS ACROSS PORTIONS
\nOF EURASIA AND IS BEING MONITORED.<\/p>\n
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS<\/p>\n
MOST STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO PREDICT THAT AN EL NINO EVENT
\nWILL DEVELOP WITHIN AUTUMN AND PEAK (AS DEFINED BY NINO3.4 ANOMALIES) AS A WEAK
\nEVENT DURING THE WINTER IN MANY FORECASTS AND ALSO ON AVERAGE. THE SPREAD
\nREMAINS SOMEWHAT LARGE AS SOME TOOLS PREDICT CONTINUATION OF NINO3.4 ANOMALIES
\nBELOW +0.5C WHILE SOME DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MODERATE EVENT
\nWITH FORECAST ANOMALIES OF GREATER +1.0C. OVERALL THIS MONTH CONTINUES THE
\nSLIGHT TREND SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS OF DECREASING NINO3.4 POSITIVE
\nANOMALIES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. AN INTERESTING POINT THIS MONTH IS ALSO THAT
\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODELS PEAK ANY EL NINO EVENT LATER IN THE WINTER, WHICH WOULD BE
\nSOMEWHAT UNUSUAL. WHILE FEW ENSO EVENTS HAVE DEVELOPED AT THIS TIME OF YEAR, IT
\nIS NOT UNPRECEDENTED, AND CONSIDERED TOGETHER, MODEL FORECASTS AND CURRENT
\nOBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE CONSENSUS ENSO FORECAST INDICATING A
\n60-65% CHANCE OF EL NINO DEVELOPMENT IN LATE AUTUMN OR WINTER AND THE OFFICIAL
\nTEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS CONTINUE TO CONSIDER EL NINO IMPACTS AT
\nTHIS TIME.<\/p>\n
POSITIVE NORTH PACIFIC AND WESTERN ATLANTIC SST ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST TO
\nPERSIST IN SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE BOREAL WINTER BY MANY DYNAMICAL MODELS
\nINCLUDING THE NMME AND IMME, ALONG WITH THE FORECAST OF EL NINO DEVELOPMENT.
\nTHESE SUB-TROPICAL AND HIGHER LATITUDE SST ANOMALIES ARE ALSO CONSIDERED IN THE
\nOUTLOOK AND LIKELY TO IMPACT THE CLIMATE OF NORTH AMERICA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL
\nSEASONS.<\/p>\n
PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS<\/p>\n
THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY
\nPOTENTIAL IMPACTS OF A WEAK EL NINO BEGINNING WITH NDJ 2014-15 AND CONTINUING
\nPRIMARILY THROUGH FMA 2015, ALTHOUGH LESS SO THAN PREVIOUS OUTLOOKS FOR SOME
\nAREAS IN THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS. SST ANOMALIES IN OTHER AREAS OUTSIDE THE
\nEQUATORIAL PACIFIC WERE UTILIZED OR CONSIDERED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO
\nCOASTAL AREAS NEAR THE WEST COAST, IN PROXIMITY TO ALASKA AND AREAS ALONG THE
\nU.S. EAST COAST.<\/p>\n
THE CONSTRUCTED ANALOG FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON
\nGLOBAL SST PATTERNS WAS ALSO UTILIZED IN THE OUTLOOKS AS WAS INFORMATION FROM A
\nLARGE VARIETY OF DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE CFS, THE NMME AND IMME
\nAND THEIR PARTICIPANT MODELS, WITH ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR POTENTIAL MODEL BIASES.
\nTHE SHIFT IN PROBABILITIES RELATED TO POSITIVE NINO3.4 ANOMALIES IN THE RANGE
\nOF 0.5C TO 1.0C WERE CONSIDERED. ALTHOUGH CHANGES AND EXTENT OF SNOW COVER
\nACROSS EURASIA AND ANY ASSOCIATED TELECONNECTIONS GENERALLY REQUIRE COMPLETION
\nOF THE MONTH OF OCTOBER, IT WAS CONSIDERED IN FORMULATING THE OUTLOOK.<\/p>\n
FOR OUTLOOKS FROM AMJ THROUGH OND 2015, DECADAL TRENDS DUE TO CHANGES IN THE
\nCLIMATE BASE STATE AND THE CON (HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY TRENDS) ARE THE PRIMARY
\nSOURCE OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION SIGNALS.<\/p>\n
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS – NDJ 2014 TO NDJ 2015<\/p>\n
TEMPERATURE<\/p>\n
THE SET OF OUTLOOKS THIS MONTH DEPICT A SOMEWHAT COOLER SCENARIO FOR THE FIRST
\nFEW LEADS (THROUGH FMA 2015) AS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS SET OF OUTLOOKS. MORE
\nSPECIFICALLY AND BETTER STATED, COVERAGE AND PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
\nTEMPERATURES WERE REDUCED OR REMOVED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OF THE EASTERN CONUS
\nAND PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INCREASED IN COVERAGE FOR
\nPORTIONS OF THE LOWER-TO-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, TENNESSEE VALLEY,
\nSOUTHEAST AND LOWER MID-ATLANTIC. THIS IS BASED ON AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF
\nANY EL NINO EVENT BEING OF WEAK MAGNITUDE, CONSIDERABLE CHANGE IN MUCH OF THE
\nDYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE (OTHER THAN THE CFS) AND INDICATIONS IN SOME TOOLS AND
\nINFORMATION FOR A POTENTIAL TENDENCY TOWARD A NEGATIVE AO AND NAO DURING THE
\nWINTER MONTHS.<\/p>\n
POTENTIAL EL NINO CONDITIONS CONTRIBUTE TO THE OUTLOOKS PRIMARILY THROUGH FMA
\n2015. FOR NDJ AND DJF 2014-15, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS
\nALASKA, THE FAR WEST AND ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS EASTWARD TO
\nINCLUDE PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC (NDJ ONLY). THE PROBABILITIES
\nFOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE REDUCED AND SHIFTED SOMEWHAT NORTHWARD IN DJF
\nFOR BOTH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE HIGHEST ODDS ARE FOR COASTAL AREAS
\nALONG THE WEST COAST AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALASKA WHERE SST ANOMALIES ARE
\nCONSIDERABLY ABOVE AVERAGE AND LIKELY WILL INFLUENCE TEMPERATURES FOR NDJ
\n2014-15. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
\nAND GREAT LAKES IN THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK FOR JFM AND FMA 2015 WAS REPLACED WITH
\nEC IN THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED DURING NDJ
\n2014-15 FROM NEW MEXICO EASTWARD TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES INCLUDING
\nAREAS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE HIGHLIGHTED REGION OF BELOW NORMAL
\nTEMPERATURES IS EXPANDED EASTWARD AND SOMEWHAT NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE THE
\nLOWER-TO-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, TENNESSEE VALLEY, SOUTHEAST AND LOWER
\nMID-ATLANTIC THROUGH JFM 2015 WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN COVERAGE IN FMA 2015.<\/p>\n
THE EVOLUTION IN THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS FOR THE FIRST FOUR LEADS DEPICTED IS
\nFURTHER SUPPORTED BY 500-HPA HEIGHT AND TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FROM THE
\nCONSTRUCTED ANALOG DERIVED FROM GLOBAL SSTS ALONG WITH A DECREASE OR REMOVAL OF
\nABOVE NORMAL MEAN TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES FROM MANY OF THE NMME AND IMME
\nPARTICIPANT MODELS.<\/p>\n
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR ALASKA AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
\nDYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND ANOMALOUSLY WARM WATERS IN PROXIMITY TO THE STATE.
\nABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE
\nWINTER BASED ON THE CONSTRUCTED ANALOG TEMPERATURE FORECAST, NEARBY OCEAN
\nTEMPERATURES AND MODESTLY HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM
\nTHE NMME AND IMME GUIDANCE.<\/p>\n
THE OUTLOOK MAPS FROM AMJ 2015 AND BEYOND REMAINED LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE
\nPREVIOUS OUTLOOKS. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
\nFORECAST FOR NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH NDJ 2015-16. THE ANOMALOUS DELAY IN ARCTIC
\nOCEAN AND BERING SEA SEA-ICE COVER FOR OCTOBER AND NOVEMBER IN THE LAST DECADE
\nRELATIVE TO THE 1981-2010 CLIMATOLOGY PERIOD RESULTS IN GREATLY ENHANCED
\nPROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN AND
\nNORTHWESTERN ALASKA FROM ASO – OND 2015.<\/p>\n
PRECIPITATION<\/p>\n
THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK MAPS THROUGH FMA 2015 WERE PRIMARILY BASED ON
\nPOTENTIAL EL NINO CONDITIONS, DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE FROM THE NMME
\nAND IMME AND THEIR PARTICIPANT MODELS. PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM THE GLOBAL
\nSST BASED CONSTRUCTED ANALOG TOOL WAS ALSO CONSIDERED. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
\nTENDED TO INDICATE INCREASED WETNESS IN MANY AREAS OF THE CONUS AS COMPARED TO
\nGUIDANCE LAST MONTH.<\/p>\n
ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ACROSS THE
\nSOUTHWEST, SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST CONUS FROM NDJ 2014-15 THROUGH FMA
\n2015. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH EL NINO CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY
\nMODEL GUIDANCE. EL NINO COMPOSITES ALSO WEAKLY SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN THE ODDS
\nFOR ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO
\nSOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THIS ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE SIGNALS IN THE NMME AND
\nIMME MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORT ADDING THIS REGION TO BOTH THE NDJ AND DJF 2014-15
\nPRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS. BOTH EL NINO CONSIDERATIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO
\nSUPPORT AN EXPANSION OF THE FAVORED ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FOR THE CENTRAL
\nROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING JFM AND FMA 2015.<\/p>\n
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED FOR THE
\nPACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH MAM 2015, AND FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
\nINTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM NDJ 2014-15 THROUGH MAM 2015. A LESS ROBUST
\nSIGNAL THIS MONTH IN DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WAS THE
\nBASIS FOR THE SLIGHT REDUCTION IN COVERAGE AND PROBABILITIES OF BELOW MEDIAN
\nPRECIPITATION IN NDJ AND DJF 2014-15 IN THIS AREA WHEN COMPARED TO PREVIOUSLY
\nISSUED FORECASTS FOR THESE SEASONS. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
\nARE ENHANCED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALASKA THROUGH FMA 2015.<\/p>\n
PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ENHANCED FOR PARTS OF THE
\nSOUTHWEST DURING AMJ AND MJJ 2015 AND FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN THE JAS AND
\nASO 2015 SEASONS DUE TO DECADAL TRENDS.<\/p>\n
FORECASTER: JON GOTTSCHALCK<\/p>\n
THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1981 AND 2010, FOLLOWING
\nTHE WORLD METEROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3
\nCOMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATIC REFERENCE PERIOD. THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES
\nFOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT
\nSHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS.<\/p>\n
FOR A DESCRIPTION OF OF THE STANDARD FORECAST TOOLS – THEIR SKILL- AND THE
\nFORECAST FORMAT PLEASE SEE OUR WEB PAGE AT
\nHTTP:\/WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV\/PRODUCTS\/PREDICTIONS\/90DAY\/DISC.HTML
\n(USE LOWER CASE LETTERS)
\nINFORMATION ON THE FORMATION OF SKILL OF THE CAS FORECASTS MAY BE FOUND AT:
\nHTTP:\/\/WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV\/SOILMST\/FORECASTS.HTML (USE LOWERCASE LETTERS)
\nNOTES – THESE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR
\nVALID PERIOD. WITHIN ANY GIVEN VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT AND MEDIUM
\nRANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.<\/p>\n
THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT
\nMONTH ON NOV 20 2014<\/p>\n
1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS WERE IMPLEMENTED EFFECTIVE WITH THE MAY 19, 2011
\nFORECAST RELEASE.
\n$$ <\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its official prediction of what this winter is going to be like. And yes, it is in ALL CAPS!!! I’ve pasted it below, but first a summary of the relevant points. According to NOAA El Nino <li>There will be a weak El Nino, late Autumn or … Continue reading Official Prediction of US Winter<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":20515,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[161,2910,3493,3494,3495],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p5fhV1-5kQ","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20512"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=20512"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20512\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20512"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=20512"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=20512"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
![\"Outlook_map_temp2014F\"](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblogs.com\/gregladen\/files\/2014\/10\/Outlook_map_temp2014F.jpg\")
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