![\"pauldouglas_1397607481_ElNinoAus\"](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblogs.com\/gregladen\/files\/2014\/04\/pauldouglas_1397607481_ElNinoAus.jpg\")
<\/a><\/p>\nThe ENSO is complex and I won’t try to explain it all here, but the bottom line is this: During some periods heat accumulated on the surface of the Pacific is moved by currents (driven by winds) deeper into the ocean. During other periods, El Ni\u00f1o, the heat moves back to the surface again.<\/p>\n
It is interesting to note that there are probably two kinds of El Ni\u00f1o: Regular and “Modoki”. Modoki is Japanese for “Similar but different.” So perhaps we can think of Modoki El Ni\u00f1o as Brian. Anyway, the Modoki El Ni\u00f1o is different in a few ways, one of those being that while regular El Ni\u00f1o tends to attenuate Atlantic hurricane activity by causing more tropical storm-killing vertical wind shear, the Modoki variety may enhance the likelihood of landfalling hurricanes<\/a> in the US. I’ve not seen any predictions that we are more likely to have Modoki El Ni\u00f1o this year, but a paper just coming out on a related topic, that I’m busy writing up suggests that it may be the case.<\/p>\n For more information on this year’s predictions, see these sources:<\/p>\n EL NI\u00d1O\/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION<\/a> (NOAA)<\/p>\n El Ni\u00f1o likely to develop in winter<\/a> (Australian Bureau of Meteorology)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" … and by that I mean the El Ni\u00f1o phase of the El Ni\u00f1o Souther Oscillation climate pattern. We have been in an ENSO neutral phase for a while. Climate scientists have a hard time predicting El Ni\u00f1o, which arrives in Summer, Fall, or Winter, this early in the year, but nonetheless most prediction sources, … Continue reading The Christ Child Cometh.<\/span>