{"id":19344,"date":"2014-04-14T11:24:37","date_gmt":"2014-04-14T16:24:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/scienceblogs.com\/gregladen\/?p=19344"},"modified":"2014-04-14T11:24:37","modified_gmt":"2014-04-14T16:24:37","slug":"climate-change-things-two-items-of-interest","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/2014\/04\/14\/climate-change-things-two-items-of-interest\/","title":{"rendered":"Climate Change Things: Two items of interest"},"content":{"rendered":"

First, as I’ve mentioned before, there is a Reddit “As Me Anything” (AMA) going on right now with Stephan Lewandowsky, and if you are into Reddit AMA’s and climate change related issues you should check it out. Lewandowsky is a co-author of the famous Frontiers Retracted paper<\/a>, though the subjects being discussed at the AMA range far beyond that particular issue.<\/p>\n

Second, there is new paper out that looks very interesting. I’m still trying to absorb it and I’ve asked the author for some clarifications on some issues, but already the Global Warming Deialosphere is all over it, so it must have some merit! \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n

Scaling fluctuation analysis and statistical hypothesis testing of anthropogenic warming<\/a><\/strong> by Shaun Lovejoy.<\/p>\n

From the press release<\/a>:<\/p>\n

Is global warming just a giant natural fluctuation?<\/strong><\/p>\n

An analysis of temperature data since 1500 all but rules out the possibility that global warming in the industrial era is just a natural fluctuation in the earth\u2019s climate, according to a new study by McGill University physics professor Shaun Lovejoy.<\/p>\n

…Rather than using complex computer models to estimate the effects of greenhouse-gas emissions, Lovejoy examines historical data to assess the competing hypothesis: that warming over the past century is due to natural long-term variations in temperature.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis study will be a blow to any remaining climate-change deniers,\u201d Lovejoy says. \u201cTheir two most convincing arguments \u2013 that the warming is natural in origin, and that the computer models are wrong \u2013 are either directly contradicted by this analysis, or simply do not apply to it.\u201d<\/p>\n

Lovejoy\u2019s study applies statistical methodology to determine the probability that global warming since 1880 is due to natural variability. His conclusion: the natural-warming hypothesis may be ruled out \u201cwith confidence levels great than 99%, and most likely greater than 99.9%.\u201d<\/p>\n

…<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019ve had a fluctuation in average temperature that\u2019s just huge since 1880 \u2013 on the order of about 0.9 degrees Celsius,\u201d Lovejoy says. \u201cThis study shows that the odds of that being caused by natural fluctuations are less than one in a hundred and are likely to be less than one in a thousand.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhile the statistical rejection of a hypothesis can\u2019t generally be used to conclude the truth of any specific alternative, in many cases \u2013 including this one \u2013 the rejection of one greatly enhances the credibility of the other.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

First, as I’ve mentioned before, there is a Reddit “As Me Anything” (AMA) going on right now with Stephan Lewandowsky, and if you are into Reddit AMA’s and climate change related issues you should check it out. Lewandowsky is a co-author of the famous Frontiers Retracted paper, though the subjects being discussed at the AMA … Continue reading Climate Change Things: Two items of interest<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":12514,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[148,856,20,97],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p5fhV1-520","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19344"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19344"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19344\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19344"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19344"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19344"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}