{"id":17687,"date":"2013-09-08T20:54:19","date_gmt":"2013-09-09T01:54:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/scienceblogs.com\/gregladen\/?p=17687"},"modified":"2013-09-08T20:54:19","modified_gmt":"2013-09-09T01:54:19","slug":"the-race-is-on-will-humberto-break-the-record-or-gustav-break-humberto","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/2013\/09\/08\/the-race-is-on-will-humberto-break-the-record-or-gustav-break-humberto\/","title":{"rendered":"The race is on: Will Humberto break the record or Gustav break Humberto? (UPDATED)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The disturbance off the west coast of Africa that I mentioned earlier is now officially Tropical Depression Number Nine.<\/p>\n<p>It is forecast that Nine will turn into a hurricane in about 72 hours, though one model suggest much sooner.<\/p>\n<p>The last time that no hurricane formed in the Atlantic before September 11th was &#8230; well, never (for the period of good records).  So if the Nine becomes Humberto (that&#8217;s the next name on the list) a little late, on the 12th, Humberto becomes a record storm, of sorts &#8230; the first hurricane after the longest delay in the Atlantic.  If, however, Nine becomes Humberto on the 10th, which is distinctly possible, then no dice &#8230; we have an unusual year but we don&#8217;t beat the old record.<\/p>\n<p>But what happens if Humberto forms on the 11th? There&#8217;s a pretty darn good chance of that happening.<\/p>\n<p>Well, then, I suppose it will depend on exactly WHEN Humberto becomes a hurricane &#8230; or is declared a hurricane?<\/p>\n<p>According to records at the National Weather Service, Gustav, in 2002, was declared a hurricane at the noon update (UTC):<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblogs.com\/gregladen\/files\/2013\/09\/Gust_NHC_Tropical_Cyclone_Report.jpeg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblogs.com\/gregladen\/files\/2013\/09\/Gust_NHC_Tropical_Cyclone_Report-640x764.jpeg?resize=604%2C721\" alt=\"Gust_NHC_Tropical_Cyclone_Report\" width=\"604\" height=\"721\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-17688\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>(And didn&#8217;t last long.)<\/p>\n<p>So, what do you think? Will this be a record year or not?  Will Humberto displace Gustav? Will Gustav stand? Will they become hurricanes simultaneously (as it were)?<\/p>\n<p>Place your bets here&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><strong>UPDATE (9 sept 8:20AM):<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The NWS is currently projecting Humberto to become a hurricane on the 11th.  Or maybe a tiny bit sooner, but most likely, before noon on the 11th.  Here are two projections that are slightly different that came out a few minutes ago:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblogs.com\/gregladen\/files\/2013\/09\/Tropical_Storm_HUMBERTO.jpeg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblogs.com\/gregladen\/files\/2013\/09\/Tropical_Storm_HUMBERTO-640x585.jpeg?resize=604%2C552\" alt=\"Tropical_Storm_HUMBERTO\" width=\"604\" height=\"552\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-17692\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblogs.com\/gregladen\/files\/2013\/09\/Tropical_Storm_HUMBERTOWindTable.jpeg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblogs.com\/gregladen\/files\/2013\/09\/Tropical_Storm_HUMBERTOWindTable.jpeg?resize=604%2C555\" alt=\"Tropical_Storm_HUMBERTOWindTable\" width=\"604\" height=\"555\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-17693\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The disturbance off the west coast of Africa that I mentioned earlier is now officially Tropical Depression Number Nine. It is forecast that Nine will turn into a hurricane in about 72 hours, though one model suggest much sooner. The last time that no hurricane formed in the Atlantic before September 11th was &#8230; well, &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/2013\/09\/08\/the-race-is-on-will-humberto-break-the-record-or-gustav-break-humberto\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">The race is on: Will Humberto break the record or Gustav break Humberto? (UPDATED)<\/span> <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":17689,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[1190,1192],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p5fhV1-4Bh","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17687"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17687"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17687\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17687"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17687"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gregladen.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17687"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}