It has been Just over six months since a magnitude 9 earthquake and ensuing tsunami struck the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. In the hours following that incident, nuclear power protagonists filled the blogosphere, the news outlets, and other media with assurances that little could go wrong, that the reactors would be managed, that the disaster would demonstrate, once things had settled down, that nuclear power was, indeed, safe.<\/p>\n
One of the first things Ana and I noticed, and we were not alone, is that some of the same stories … in some cases the same exact wording … was showing up in various places, as though planted by apologists for the nuclear power industry. But more worrying than that may have been the naivete of many who were seemingly very trusting of the nuclear power industry than they probably should have been, quite innocently. And, it was becoming increasingly clear that many members of the skeptics community had become convinced over the last several years that anti-nuclear sentiment was irrational, and that somehow this translated into a blind trust for the nuclear power industry being the most rational course. Today, six months after the earthquake, we know that three of the plants fully melted down. We have a rough estimate of how much nuclear material was released from a point in time a few days after the accident to the present, but for the first few days, the estimates are very poor and the amount being released was probably very high, because that is when the meltdowns were occurring. And, there is reason to believe that most of the radioactive material released from this plant was released (and is still being released) into the sea, pretty much uncounted.<\/p>\n
The following is a non-comprehensive timeline of some of the events over the first several days of the disaster mixed in with selected comments on this blog, mostly just the very few updates in this series or related posts. 9:45 pm local time: 10 mag earthquake hits. The reactors’ cooling systems are irreparably damaged by the earthquake.<\/p>\n 10:15 pm: Tsunami hits Fukushima coast. Further damage occurs at the plant.<\/p>\n March 12: <\/strong><\/p>\n ~2:00 am local time, Reactor No 1 is in full meltdown. Most of the nuclear fuel from the reactor escaped the containment vessel and much of that is currently unaccounted for but is probably in the lower pressure vessel and somewhere in the lower parts of the reactor building or in the geological formations underneath it.<\/p>\n Structure over Reactor 1 blows up.<\/p>\n March 13:<\/strong><\/p>\n Reactor 2 has probably melted down by now.<\/p>\n Partial Meltdown at Unit 3.<\/p>\n A meltdown isn’t apparently what really is to be feared. It wouldn’t mean that the reactor containment is breached, which would be really catastrophic. 3 Mile Island was a partial meltdown but not much radiation was released. So to the people asking about which direction the wind is blowing from Japan, calm down \ud83d\ude42<\/p><\/blockquote>\n “Bill Nye thinks the situation is much worse than the government would have us believe.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n March 14th plus or minus 30 hours<\/strong>, Reactor 3 fully melts down, unnoticed. Structure over Reactor 3 blows up.<\/p>\n It is generally felt by nuclear power apologists that it is fairly normal for the structures to blow up and there is no real meaning to it. In retrospect, it seems that the explosion of the structures was linked to the meltdowns.<\/p>\n March 15th<\/strong><\/p>\n Explosion in the “pressure suppression room” damages Reactor 2’s containment system.<\/p>\n Reactor 4 fuel rods catch fire.<\/p>\n March 16th<\/strong><\/p>\n Greg, I thought you were a more rational blogger than this; you are inadvertently feeding into the hysteria around this situation with the Fukushima nuclear plants by referencing shoddy media reporting. I suggest you and others here take a look at my blog post on the matter … Please take some time to read up on information regarding the Fukushima incident from reputable sources that understand the nuclear physics & engineering involved. Otherwise, you are merely feeding the hysteria.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n March 18th<\/strong><\/p>\n The upper half of the visible portions of those buildings (the parts that “got all blowed up”) are not part of the primary containment. The lower half of the building holds the primary containment. The upper portion is a storage\/utility area that is more like typical building construction, whereas the lower portion is built to be far, far stronger. The destruction of the upper level in several of the buildings is a bit misleading as it really is not indicative of the reactor sections of the buildings. Probably a good comparison for you is the Metrodome: the badly damaged roof is not an indication that the Metrodome was destroyed (other than the roof, the rest of the Metrodome is virtually untouched). I think the current belief is that only building 3 has sustained damage to primary containment.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n Currently, only radioactive decay is occurring, not a fission reaction. A fission reaction is bad because, not only does it make more heat, but it creates more radioactive isotopes, which will also decay and continue to create more heat.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n Since I have a feeling you will read the previous sentence as me suggesting that “everything is fine,” let me be clear. That the reactors themselves have not become significantly worse over the last few days does not mean the situation is not tenuous. They could lose more coolant and still have a meltdown.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n In the case of the reactors (even with the partially melted fuel rods), the presence of the control rods and the added boron all prevent this type of sustained reaction by interfering with the neutrons. The boron really poisons the reactions because it absorbs neutrons very well, which is why you might have heard about them seemingly putting boron into everything. I agree that there’s not enough data to know the probability of failure *precisely*. But we can certainly bound it. In something like 14,000 reactor-years of operation there have been three disasters. Maybe the actual rate is 1 in 1,000 years, maybe it’s 1 in 10,000 years. It’s not 1 in 100 years.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n I repeat, there was and will *not* be any significant release of radioactivity from the damaged Japanese reactors. Dr Oehman is in fact wrong. Partly. Because he’s talking about the wrong problem. He’s talking about the cores in reactors 1-3. When he says there won’t be a signifcant release of radioactivity from those reactors he’s (apparently) right. Even if the cored melt their way through the steel containment they would wind up as solidified masses on the concrete pan underneath the reactor. A radioactive solidified mass to be sure but one that is still well contained.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n There really were no significant releases before late Monday. Oehmen’s article was an accurate snapshot of events up until late Monday.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n The news agencies the world over are spreading panic and Greg doesn’t seem to be helping matters. I live in Japan, and it is breaking me heart watching my adopted home being torn apart. The last thing the people suffering here need is bollocks like this being spread.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n March 18th: <\/strong><\/p>\n re Daiichi 2 “The fuel rods in the core were fully exposed at one point.” is misleading: fuel is still in the reactor vessel, water level may have dropped enough to expose the rods in the reactor vessel, but the core is not directly exposed to the environment. re Daiichi report from the reactor operator indicates that fire was seen at the unit twice, but was out both times by the time crews arrived to put it out. Earlier report suggested fire may have been from small spill of lubricating oil?<\/p><\/blockquote>\n There’s a blog going around on the internet that says among other things that there’s little need to worry about a meltdown at the Fukushima nuclear reactors because they have “core catchers”, that is a large shallow concrete basin that would catches the molten core and spread it out so that the chain reaction slows down.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n There’s a good blog at http:\/\/mitnse.com by the MIT Nuclear Science and Engineering department, which helps to give a realistic idea of what is going on and the risks involved. All I’ve read suggests that the media is overplaying the nuclear problems <\/p><\/blockquote>\n …it’s very clumsy and unclever satire….<\/p><\/blockquote>\n That is the worst trash ive ever read, how can this person still be on scienceblogs.com?? … If you drive a car, you can decide if you drive or not, no one can force you to drive…. Another example: If you are traveling by plane and an accident happens you are for sure 100% dead so are the other people, accidents in a car are different.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n … and so on and so forth, with the denialism actually getting stronger (and shifting more towards issues of contamination) …<\/p>\n May 12th<\/strong>, TEPCO confirms the March 12 meltdown.<\/p>\n …<\/p>\n May 24th<\/strong> TEPCO confirms that plants 1, 2, and 3 all melted down and most of the nuclear fuel escaped form the reactor vessels.<\/p>\n What is interesting about this is not<\/strong> that those strongly expressing what turned out to be abysmally wrong opinions were eventually proved wrong by, well, events; Rather, it is most interesting that they were proved wrong before they had even formed their thoughts, we just didn’t know it yet.<\/p>\n OK, enough about the early days of the crisis, let’s look at Ana’s Feed, which covers the last several day. It seems that Radioactive Cesium is widespread, though the total amount spread about on the land is less in total amount than Chernobyl (but there are significant hot spots). It is now confirmed by one research team that the major explosion (see timeline above) were caused by hydrogen separated out from water by damaged fuel rods in the reactors.<\/p>\n More is now understood about the failures of spent fuel pools at Fukushima; Ventilation systems have not been working reliably, and TEPCO is still spraying water directly at No. 2 reactor, into the specific area where a bunch of post China-Syndrome\/Meltdown fuel has accumulated … it isn’t really working; It has continued to be impossible to get people into the parts of the plant where they are needed to inspect, repair, and assess.<\/p>\n A survey of radioactive cesium from Fukushima at sea has been carried out. It will cycle across a major gyre passing first by the Philippines before returning towards Japan. Logs used to grow economically important mushrooms seem to have soaked up an undesirable amount of radiation.<\/p>\n The government in Japan has asked TEPCO to provide manuals prepared for handing disasters. TEPCO is stonewalling, providing only one of two manuals, with much of the text deleted. I suppose they didn’t think it would look like they are hiding things. There are other shenanigans as well.<\/p>\n When our own local plant (the one we drive by several times a year) was being inspected the other day, it was found that the pipes used in the fire suppression system had some blockages. I suppose it could be worse, but that is not good. Some time later this fall, the fate of the controversial aging Vermont Yankee plant will be known when a ruling is rendered following a trial that just ended.<\/p>\n And, much much more:<\/p>\n Newly Released TEPCO Data Proves Fairewinds Assertions of Significant Fuel Pool Failures at Fukushima Daiichi -Fairewinds video, August 26 <\/strong><\/p>\n http:\/\/fairewinds.com\/content\/newly-released-tepco-data-proves-fairewinds-assertions-significant-fuel-pool-failures-fukush<\/p>\n Difference Engine: Whole lot of shaking -Economist, Sept. 2<\/strong><\/p>\n -DRENCHED and battered by Hurricane Irene, and facing a clean-up bill pushing $10 billion, residents on the east coast of America have understandably had more on their minds over the past week than the earthquake which struck the Piedmont region of Virginia a day before the tropical storm swept ashore. Yet, the shaking caused by so modest a tremor, at such distances from the epicentre, caught experts by surprise. In the long term, the Virginian earthquake could trigger a bigger shake-up in disaster precautions at nuclear-power stations in America than even the Japanese catastrophe at Fukushima.<\/p>\n -Based on seismic data from 1989, the NRC expects the number of events causing damage to a reactor’s core to be an incredibly minuscule 0.0000038 per year–equivalent to a reactor failing, on average, once every 260,000 years. However, reworking the numbers using seismic data from 2008, and computing the risk for the whole fleet of reactors in America being operated for the further 20-year extension being sought for their current licences, Mr Markey’s staff expect the risk to increase 7,000-fold to a probability of 0.026 per year–ie, one nuclear disaster somewhere in the country every 38 years. In short, another Three-Mile Island some time between now and 2049.<\/p>\n -If that is indeed the case, it is surely time for the NRC to embrace, rather than resist, the lessons of Fukushima in general, and North Anna in particular. Rightly or wrongly, NRC’s foot-dragging on regulatory reform has given the impression of favouring industry interests over public safety. That is neither in the best interest of the nuclear industry itself, nor the public’s need for cheap, carbon-free power.<\/p>\n http:\/\/www.economist.com\/blogs\/babbage\/2011\/09\/disaster-prevention<\/p>\n Iran plugs first nuclear power plant into grid -Reuters, Sept. 4<\/strong><\/p>\n -Iran’s first nuclear power plant has finally begun to provide electricity to the national grid, official media reported on Sunday, a long-delayed milestone in the nuclear ambitions of a country the West fears is covertly try to develop atomic bombs.<\/p>\n -" The Atomic Energy Agency announced that atomic electricity from Bushehr power plant joined the national grid with a power of around 60 megawatts on Saturday at 2329 (1859 GMT)," the official news agency IRNA reported.<\/p>\n -Bushehr’s start-up comes with Russia pushing to revive talks between global powers and Iran about its separate uranium enrichment work , seen abroad as a potential proliferation threat since highly refined uranium fuels atomic bombs.<\/p>\n -Iran says it is enriching uranium only to lower levels suitable for power plant fuel or medical and agricultural uses.<\/p>\n -But it has also started shifting its most sensitive enrichment operations to a mountain bunker that would be better protected against a possible pre-emptive U.S. or Israeli military strike.<\/p>\n http:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/2011\/09\/04\/iran-nuclear-bushehr-idUSL5E7K409Z20110904<\/p>\n Fukushima evacuees pessimistic about going home -NHK, Sept. 6<\/strong><\/p>\n -NHK surveyed 187 people living in shelters or temporary housing in and outside Fukushima Prefecture nearly 6 months after the earthquake and tsunami and the start of the nuclear accident.<\/p>\n -Asked if their plans about where they will live have changed compared to right after the disaster, 26 percent of the respondents said they feel a stronger desire to go back to their hometowns.<\/p>\n -But 43 percent said they feel more strongly that they won’t be able to go home, while 11 percent said they’re resolved not to do so.<\/p>\n -Asked why they feel they won’t be able to return or wish not to, many cited what they saw on temporary return visits — run-down houses, deserted towns and high radioactivity readings in their homes.<\/p>\n -Many respondents apparently want the government to restore their land to its pre-disaster state if possible, or government support so they can move elsewhere. Asked what they want from the government, 43 percent said thorough decontamination of soil, and 19 percent said they want the government to purchase their property.<\/p>\n Fukushima residents need apt nuke crisis info to make decisions about future -Mainichi Perspectives, Sept. 7<\/strong><\/p>\n -About a month after the Fukushima nuclear crisis began, I spoke to a man who had been forced from his home in the town of Tomioka — part of the crisis exclusion zone — and had evacuated to Saitama Prefecture. One thing he said has stuck with me ever since: "The things I want to know the most are, how much radiation is there on my property, and can I ever go home again? I’d like to know as soon as possible, so I can start thinking about the rest of my life."<\/p>\n -At the end of August — nearly six months after the March 11 earthquake that triggered a massive tsunami and the ensuing nuclear crisis — the government finally released a map showing radioactive contamination levels around the Fukushima No. 1 Nuclear Power Plant. The government also said that there were some areas "where it may not be possible to return for a very long time."<\/p>\n http:\/\/mdn.mainichi.jp\/perspectives\/news\/20110907p2a00m0na007000c.html<\/p>\n High dioxin levels found in disaster-zone rivers -NHK, Sept. 7<\/strong><\/p>\n -The Environment Ministry says it does not think the discovery poses any immediate risk to human health, but it will continue to monitor the toxic chemical.<\/p>\n -The ministry checked the sea, rivers and groundwater for dioxins between May and July at 320 locations in 5 prefectures affected by the disaster. The ministry feared that harmful substances may have leaked from factories damaged by the earthquake and tsunami.<\/p>\n -It found dioxins exceeding the safety standards at 6 locations in rivers in Miyagi, Fukushima and Ibaraki prefectures and in groundwater in Fukushima.<\/p>\n -The high dioxin levels could be harmful if the contaminated water is ingested over a long period of time.<\/p>\n http:\/\/www3.nhk.or.jp\/daily\/english\/07_08.html<\/p>\n Japan reeling as Fukushima logs suspect in mushroom radiation contamination -Enformable, Sept. 7<\/strong><\/p>\n -Tree logs, used as a medium to grow mushrooms, have emerged as possible culprits for radioactive contamination. The farm ministry and the prefectural government are busy trying to come up with response measures.<\/p>\n -“This is the biggest crisis in my 60-year-long professional life,” said 78-year-old Chusuke Saito, who grows “shiitake” and Jew’s ear mushrooms in Fukushima city. Revenue has plunged to one-fifth the level before the March 11 disaster at his direct sales outlet. The wholesale price offered to the farmers’ cooperative has also been cut by half.<\/p>\n -Radioactive cesium exceeding the safety standard of 500 becquerels per kilogram was first detected in April in shiitake mushrooms grown on tree logs outdoors. More cases of radiation in Fukushima mushrooms were detected, and shipment bans were put in effect in 16 municipalities. The bans were still in effect as of Sept. 6.<\/p>\n -It was initially believed that cesium discharged from the stricken Fukushima No. 1 nuclear plant had settled on mushrooms grown outdoors. In July, however, excess radioactive substances were detected in shiitake mushrooms grown indoors, indicating the possibility that cesium had been absorbed from contaminated tree logs.<\/p>\n
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\nMarch 11:<\/strong><\/p>\n
\n If the reactors go into (full) meltdown, there is a possibility of “criticality” where the molten mass of uranium\/cladding\/etc. happens to get in a shape where a fission reaction can be sustained, but I think most experts (even those leaning to the anti-nuclear side) would agree this is very unlikely.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
\n By “significant” I mean a level of radiation of more than what you would receive on – say – a long distance flight, or drinking a glass of beer that comes from certain areas with high levels of natural background radiation….<\/p><\/blockquote>\nAna’s Feed:<\/H3><\/p>\n