Neither of these things is true, and I’ll be happy to explain why.

Caveat: I may be totally wrong about all of this, but when I add things up I get this particular story.

First, note that it simply isn’t true that Trump has finally been implicated in a deeply troubling and nefarious plot. Misappropriation of money in a campaign is a big deal, but it isn’t nearly as big a deal as other things he is accused of doing. It may be the case that Trump directly conspired with a foreign power to take the presidency away from the American people, in order to serve that foreign power’s interests. That is a LOT worse than illegally spending hush money to cover up an affair. It may be that Trump and his family have attempted, perhaps somewhat successfully, to profit in the multi-billion dollar range, from overseas deals in several countries. That’s not quite as bad as letting a foreign power take over the country, but it is deeply craven nonetheless. Less illegal but worse than almost anything, Trump is serving masters in industry, for reasons not entirely clear, and setting the US and the world back a decade, sometimes up to three decades, in our advancement in important areas of the environment, international relations, and so on.

He had extramarital sex with some women and tried to hide it. So did some of our greatest presidents, I suspect. I’m not impressed. We ain’t seen nothin’ yet.

On the other point, the sudden escalation. Some of this is coincidence, likely, but there may be a good reason that several moves have suddenly been made in this massive multi-player chess game. August is almost over, and the carriage turns into a pumpkin at midnight on September 5th.

There is a general election on November 6th. The US Justice Department has a tradition of avoiding taking actions of their own that could influence elections for 60 days before an election. The fact that FBI Director Comey broke that rule in 2016, and that this caused major problems, is reason to expect the US Justice Department to be stricter than ever about this.

I strongly suspect there will be little initiation of anything from both federal and state level agencies until after the election. Judges do what judges do, so the Manafort trial will proceed, and prosecutors in Virginia are on a tight time table to decide if they will re-try Manafort on the ten counts that mistrialed. So stuff is going to happen. But, that large collection of shoes yet to drop is going to be held in abeyance for a couple of months. Prosecutors may hope we’ve seen enough action to know they are out there doing their jobs, and they can more comfortably hold off for now.

And, of course, the press will continue to act, and who the heck knows what kind of “October Surprise” Giuliani and the likes of Devin Nunes will try to cook up. Fortunately, the competency of the stalwart Trumpists in the Republican Congress is fairly limited, so that may be more of a popcorn seller than an actual meaningful event.

I could be wrong, but in my view, we are going to have a fairly quite September and October along this particular front. Then, of course ….

And it flies!

For the first time ever, a human being has created a machine that flies! As the machine soars through the air, the man’s hat flies off and his scarf stiffens out behind him, and he can feel the sting of the wind on his face!

But wait, hold on a second. The “flying” machine is not really flying. It only seems like it is flying. What it is actually doing is plummeting. It is, verily, a “falling” machine. And even as the machine dives rapidly towards the ground — perhaps less rapidly than, say, a rock, because it does have some aerodynamic properties, sort of — parts start to fall off and fly in random directions. The sense of flight was real, and astounding, but it only lasted several seconds, then after that, nothing but horror and fear, then the crash.

There are other analogies that work as well. Anything you throw up in the air (while standing on a planet’s surface) appears to act in defiance of gravity. For a while. Then it reaches a certain point, the apogee, and stays there for a moment, hovering as though gravity does not matter. The ultimate defiance of gravity. Then gravity. Gravity will not be defied or denied, and the thing comes back down to earth. You can flail and windmill your arms all you want, the thing you threw up, as it must by every ounce of Newtonian physics and every adage ever uttered, come down.

Peak flying machine. Peak rubber ball. Peak Trump.

There is a time when the edifice of lies can persist. Those who never believed the lies are forced to be careful about what they say. Those responsible for reporting on the lies seek alternative views. Those unsure of the lies remain unsure. Gravity is defied, the machine holds, the thing keeps going.

Then there is a time, later, when the lies have almost all been exposed, and a sufficiently detailed narrative describing the underlying motivations is revealed. There is no going back once that happens. A would-be aircraft on its way to the ground is as good as crashed before it has actually crashed. It is like in those old movies where they guy says “You’ve killed me” right after being shot, then dies. His statement is not really premature. “We’re going down” might as well be “We’ve crashed.” Gravity is not going to take a vacation and let your red rubber ball hover for any more time than the allotted moment.

I am not sure if today is Peak Trump, but I know we are near Peak Trump.

The fiction that the Republican Congress is a check or balance died today, though many knew it was as good as dead for months.

The best shot they’ve got to exonerate trump turns out to be screaming loudly about how the FBI and the Justice Department did their jobs, and did it legally! That, the Nunes Memo, is a self inflicted blow that knocked off an entire win.

The anchoring document for the Russia investigation, only part of the story but a key touchstone to all of it, the Steele Dossier, is now generally accepted as the valid tip of a totally legit ice berg.

Mueller’s team probably just flipped a key witness, and most of the bad guys are either interviewed or scheduled for interview.

The publication of a tell-all book, which has retained credibility has provided an excellent story framework for myriad and confusing reporting over the last year and a half.

There is a lot we don’t know, but it does not matter if Donald Trump sat down with Manefort and Putin and plotted this all out, or if it is more like Trump and the Oligarchs have been doing dirty deals for decades, and then Trump accidentally becomes President so some of the good ol’ boys make a move to placate Russian creditors. Either way, or somewhere in between, it is all illegal, and badly illegal.

By mid December it was true that most Americans knew Trump has done illegal things. Trump’s approval/disapproval numbers flat-lined six months ago in a very bad place. There wasn’t even a SOTU bump that stands out above the background noise. The whole scandal has been in “hanging motionless in the air” mode for several months now, ready to go down.

The Nunes Memo will enrage the law enforcement community and strengthen the resolve of the investigators, and display to the entire country that Trump has no real case to make. The Hicks revelations put the final nail in the collusion coffin. “The emails showing you obstructed justice are not a problem, because no one will see them,” to paraphrase that. Gates may have flipped and could turn his not guilty plea to a guilty plea at any time. The old saw, “You can’t indict a president” has been tossed aside (it was never true) and now we have talk of actually indicting Trump. The majority of Americans are demanding that Trump be interviewed by Mueller under oath. Could the metaphorical train wreck that is the Republican party be any more of a train wreck? (Well, ok, maybe it can be.)

And the people are ready to flood the streets if anyone touches Mueller.

At this point, Trump’s case can not be repaired or reversed. The falling machine can not be made to go up. It is all down from now on. We are so close to Peak Trump that we might as well declare it as February 2nd, 2018.

Looking forward, I suspect that in the very near future, there will be a major manifestation of Mueller’s move against Trump. Perhaps we’ll call that the Valentine’s Day Massacre. You’ve gotta figure an old FBI man like Mueller is going to have a certain sense of timing.

I suspect that Mueller sees that the best strategy is to get the penultimate arrests done more or less all at the same time, and to have Federal indictments happen at the same time that state charges are filed. Oh, and yes, there will be parallel state level charges filed where possible, though I suspect some of that will be arranged last minute to keep the number in the know down. The state charges are not on their own that important, but that they are a thing is an important message to send.

The Penultimate arrests will be the likes of Don the Con Junior, They-Went-To-Jared Kushner, maybe a Russian here or there, a couple of other staffers. The ultimate arrest comes later. You know who that is going to be.

Anyway, there will be a point when the penultimate arrests are set to go, and the moves will have to be organized and planned out just right. That will be a moment for the very careful, very professional, Robert Mueller to spend a little extra time dotting the i’s and crossing the t’s (and yes, you can use apostrophes in that case according to the Devagueing Principle).

So, here’s the thing. If I was a senior editor or producer at a major media outlet like the Washington Post or NBC News, I’d have somebody watching key FBI agents and Federal Marshals, and maybe BCI agents in key states. Watch for them to do certain things, like go ice fishing or take a couple of days off to work in the shop or spend a little extra time on the firing range or at the gym. That sort of thing. Things you do to keep yourself busy, relax at a time it is hard to relax, and let some extra slow time go by faster.

Why is that? Because Mueller’s people are going to send the word out like this.

“Next week, soonest, probably eight or ten days.”

“OK, gotcha.”

“Not before 7 days, anyway.”

“Not in six days or five?”

“No way, not before seven. Probably not even that. Not six, five, or sooner. Guarnteed.”

“OK, got it. I’ve had no time off since before the election. I’m taking four days, do some fishing, maybe work on the ‘Stang, if it’s warm enough.”

“OK, you do that. Expect a call in seven days. Soonest. Probably eight or nine.”

So, when a handful of the most likely agents or cops to participate in a big operation with multiple locations around DC, NY, and Florida seem to be taking a breather, call all the reporters and producers back from vacation and have them all check their batteries and keep the tanks full. The excrement will be hitting the fan, in eight or nine days, tops. Maybe seven.