Florida is about to get another hurricane. Tropical Storm Nicole is expected to develop into a Category 1 hurricane and come ashoire on the East Coast somewhere near Palm Bay, north of West Palm Beach, late in the day Wednesday. This is going to be a physically large storm, with effects over a broad area.

November 2nd

Somewhat suddenly there are two named storms in the Atlantic.

Lisa is a Category 1 hurricane bearing down on the coast of Belize, with Belize City in the front right quadrant of the storm. This will be going on for several more hours, then the storm will convert to a tropical storm or strong depression, until it exist land to the Gulf of Mexico, or possibly (but not likely) the Pacific.

Martin is a Category 1 hurricane way out in the middle of the Atlantic. Martin may develop into a Category 2 hurricane as it moves north, reaching nearly Category 3 strength, before weakening and wandering clumsily into the part of the Atlantic between Iceland and the UK.

October 18th

I’m not going to call an end to the season. But the season seems to be over.

October 11th later that day

The original plan was to keep the name Julia for whatever storm might have formed from Remnant Julia. But instead, a second storm formed right next to Julia Proper and created Clone Julia. That storm then moved into the Gulf of Mexico, and got up enough gumption to get an name, and its name is Karl with a K. (You don’t say the “with a K” part.)

This storm will shortly turn back into Mexico and land not far from Veracruz as a tropical storm, not a hurricane.

October 11th

Just a quick note: It is looking like the remnant of Julia is passing back over the sea in the Gulf of Mexico, highly likely to become a tropical storm, but then with an uncertain future. Stay tuned.

October 9th

Julia came ashore on Nicaragua’s coast as a Category 1 hurricane, and is now a tropical storm dumping a lot of rain in the interior. It is very likely to re-emerge on the Pacific side and will likely hug the Pacific coast for several hours.

From the NHC:

Regardless of Julia’s track and future status as a tropical cyclone,
the evolving weather pattern is likely to lead to heavy rains over
Central America and southern Mexico for several days, which could
cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in
areas of mountainous terrain.

Since Julia’s low-level circulation is expected to survive its
passage across Nicaragua, the cyclone will retain the same name
when it moves into the eastern Pacific basin. The intermediate
advisory at 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC) will be issued under the same
Atlantic product headers as before. However, now that all coastal
watches and warnings are located along the Pacific coast of Central
America, product headers will change to eastern Pacific headers
beginning with the next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC),
with the ATCF identifier changing from AL132022 to EP182022.

If Julia regains hurricane status, there is a non-zero chance it will make a second landfall in Mexico.

October 8th

Julia is the name of the below mentioned new system in the Atlantic Basin. This is now a tropical storm heading due west, which is expected to turn into a Category 1 hurricane prior to making landfall on the east coast of Nicaragua. The island of San Andrés, part of Columbia, is dead in the middle of the expected track. After landfall it is not unlikely that the remnants of Julia will pass into the Eastern Pacific with enough ooomph to be a concern, or less likely, but possible, to recurve north into the Gulf of Mexico and make a second landfall (hopefully not as a hurricane). One model (don’t believe the models yet) has it hitting Florida in the general vicinity of where Ian recently caused major devastation. Not likely but a reminder that if you get hit once with a Hurricane you can get hit twice with a hurricane.

Please go HERE to get the current forecast and advisory.

October 6th

There is a new storm, very likely to become a hurricane just before hitting land. In about 3 days the as yet unnamed storm will likely come assure in Nicaragua. There is a very good chance the storm will pass over Central America and emerge as a non-hurricane with potential in the Eastern Pacific. It will not be stronger than a Category 1 hurricane, but there could be serious problems in Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala and Belize. The island of

October 2nd

Ian’s Death Toll. Sometimes, when a deadly disaster happens, and the death toll starts to come in, you can get a feeling for how absurd the initial numbers are, and for what the order of magnitude of the final count is likely to be. And indeed we were seeing some pretty low and absurd numbers a few days ago for Ian’s mortality count, but I have no idea where this is going. There are neighborhoods where it seems like every single person present must have been killed, but what we don’t know is how many had left before the storm tide came in. Yesterdays estiamte was round 35, thius mornings estimates range from 44 to 67. The highest current estimate I know of is 77.

Barrier Islands. Barrier Islands are barriers, and thus, take the brunt of the daily shoreward energy the ocean throws at them. This energy, including offshore winds, waves, and littoral currents that move sand that can then infill the inlets and outlets, forms the barriers, and in a sense nurtures them. But a storm like Ian can have the opposite effect. Water building up behind a barrier beach can be trapped if outlets are clogged either by the storm pushing in sand, or debris plugging the channel on the way out. In this way, floodwaters can go in open inlets, then overtop the barrier and erode from the top on the way out. Remeber Condominium* by John MacDonald? That’s what took out the [SPOILER ALERT] condominium. (The hurricane science in that old book should not be regarded as up to date.)

Barrier Islands took it in the neck (pun intended) with Ivan.

Eastern Pacific. Even though our focus here is on the Atlantic Basin it is a good idea to keep an eye on the Eastern Pacific. We are interested here in the Atlantic because Atlantic hurricanes can directly affect North America, but some (rare) Eastern Pacific storms also hit Mexico or, more infrequently, California. Also, the occasional Eastern Pacific hurricane crosses over into the Gulf of Mexico, perhaps as a large wet former hurricane, where it may reform into a meaningful storm.

Well, one storm may be doing that now. Orlene is currently a major hurricane, and is expected to weaken a little bit before slamming into the west coast of Mexico over the next two days. All of the current evidence suggests that Orlene will dissipate on the mainland in Mexico, and isn’t likely to turn into a Gulf hurricane. But there is one spaghetti model that has a sick sense of humor. Note: This is 99.99% sure to NOT happen, but have a look anyway:

Tampa, model TABD (Deep-Layer Trajectory and Beta Model Track Forecast) has it in for you. (Note: This type of model is notoriously random in looking at weaker systems, which Orleans will be in a couple/few days.)

What’s Next?. There are two storms forming in the Atlantic, both in early stages, and one seems likely to not develop at all, or if so, much later. The more likely of the two storms, known currently as “1,” is:

A tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the Cabo
Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable
for some gradual development during the next several days.
Therefore, a tropical depression is likely to form during the early
or middle part of next week while the system moves westward, then
turns northwestward or northward toward the end of the week over the
eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

September 29th

The key news about former hurricane Ian is that it is about to become a Lazarus hurricane. Ian will re-strengthen shortly, in the global warming enhanced warm waters of the Atlantic, into a hurricane before it hits South Carolina, in just over 24 hours from now, as a physically large Category 1 hurricane.

Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge through Friday
   along the coasts of northeast Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina.
   Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local
   officials.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected across the South Carolina
   coast beginning early Friday, where a Hurricane Warning has been
   issued. Hurricane conditions are possible by tonight along the
   coasts of northeastern Florida and Georgia, where a Hurricane Watch
   is in effect. Preparations should be rushed to completion since
   tropical-storm-force winds will begin well before the center
   approaches the coast.

3. Ongoing major-to-record river flooding will continue across
   portions of central Florida, with considerable flooding in northern
   Florida. Considerable flash and urban flooding is expected across
   coastal portions of northeast Florida through Friday. Local
   significant flooding in southeastern Georgia and eastern South
   Carolina is expected through the end of the week.

September 28, mid morning

Ian is a strong Category 4 hurricane and is expected to maintain this level until it is very close to, and overtaking, the coast. It is close enough to a Category 5 hurricane that it could venture into that territory at any moment. The very dangerious eyewall is moving on shore now, maybe a little earlier than expected because the eye grew stronger and larger overnight. This landfall event will go on for the next 12 hours, near the end of which the storm will weaken slightly.

Storm surge is now estimated to be between 12 and 16 feet above GROUND level in areas where it will be at maximum, on top of which will be destructve waves, along the Florida coast from Englewood to Bonita Beach and including Charlotte Harbor. If that is where you are you have to get out of there right away.

Wind gusts of nearly 200 mph is the right front quadrant will remove buildings and trees in or near Port Charlotte, Came Coral, and Fort Meyers, and very strong winds will affect areas from Naples to Sarasota. So yes, locally, and freqruently, buildings, trees, infrastructure, will experience the equivalent of F3 or F4 tornado winds. (Plus there will likely be actual tornado outbreaks spawned by the hurricane). Hopefully people will be out of these areas in time.

Ironically, the biggest risk of spawned tornados and very heavy rainfall may be on the opposite side of the Florida Peninsula from landfall, over by Cape Canaveral, and Daytona Beach.

From the NHC:

Key Messages:

1. Catastrophic storm surge inundation of 12 to 16 feet above ground
   level along with destructive waves are expected somewhere along the
   southwest Florida coastline from Englewood to Bonita Beach,
   including Charlotte Harbor. Residents in these areas should urgently
   follow any evacuation orders in effect.

2. Catastrophic wind damage is expected along the southwestern
   coast of Florida beginning in the next few hours where the core of
   Ian makes landfall. Preparations to protect life and property
   should be urgently rushed to completion.

3. Heavy rainfall will spread across the Florida peninsula through
   Thursday and reach portions of the Southeast U.S. later this week
   and this weekend. Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic
   flooding is expected across portions of central Florida with
   considerable flooding in southern Florida, northern Florida,
   southeastern Georgia and coastal South Carolina. Widespread,
   prolonged major and record river flooding expected across central
   Florida.

September 28

It is now estimated that Ian will approach landfall as a strong Category 4 hurricane with maximum windspeeds of 155mph. That makes it an F2 tornado in strength, but a gazillion times bigger. Landfall will very likely be as expected for the last day or so, with the eye crossing somewhere near Englewood, and the right front quadrent pushing water up Charlotte Harbor. It looks to me like the storm surge and inundation maps have been updated to show a larger area of extreme flooding.

The worst of the hurricane effects are from about now, through the day, and through tonight, and into the morning. More a little later after the morning update from NHC.

September 27th

Added at 6PM central:

Ian the hurricane, as they do, got stronger than projected, a little, and is expected to potentially be a full on Category 4 (or just barely a 4) storm while it is off the coast of Florida just prior to landfall. Forces that were supposed to weaken Ian did not materialize. This has been sufficiently important and rapid that it seems that the NHC put out an update a little sooner than usual. After landfall the storm will remain at hurricane strength or nearly so for many hours (maybe 24 hours?) At roughly 5 or 6 PM local time tomorrow, the eye will be passing over the shore, probably somewhere between St. Petersberg and Naples, with the center of the prediction range being near Port Charlotte. So tomorrow mid day through late Thursday, Florida is going to be a mess.

And now the bad news. If the hurricane obeys the laws of probability very strictly and stays right on track, the dangerous right front quarter is going to bash into Bokeelia, Cape Coral, Sanibel, St. James City, and Port Charlotte. There are two inlets there, a narrow one going up to Fort Myers, and a much broader one that goes up to Port Charlotte, either of which could have really severe highly concentrated coastal flooding. The NHC experimental storm surge and flooding models show these two areas suffering flooding greater than 9 feet above sea level. But it will be a wavy, wind blow 9 feet, so this is bad. In the following graphic, the red is over 9 feet, the orange over 8 feet. Much of this land is less than 10 feet above sea level. These are neighborhoods with numerous homes.

Now here I have to say something really important. If the storm does not come in with the eye over Englewood and the right front quadrant hitting these embayments, then there would be much less flooding here. The way to read this map, I’m pretty sure, is not “this is where the flooding will be and how much.” Rather, it is “if the flooding hits maximum at this spot, this is what the flooding would likely be.” That is a much better planning tool, but is a little difficult to grok.

The two most important updates regarding Hurricane Ian are:

1) It is now projected to very likely come ashore between Tampa/St Petersburg and Bonita Springs, but it, as is true of most hurricanes, is a large storm. Therefore storm surge, high winds, and some degree of flooding can be expected anywhere from Steinhatchee to the Keys.

2) The storm will likely remain as a major (probably Category 3) hurricane right up to landfall.

The keys are under direct and immediate threat, and we will be seeing worsening and maximally bad conditions there just as we are hearing news from Cuba about their local devastation. Landfall on the Florida coast will be as soon as late tomorrow, but tropical force winds will be arriving in the keys today (Tuesday) mid afternoon, and by nightfall tonight on the mainland in the southern part of the state. Wednesday will be a day of high wind, torrential rain, and coastal flooding in much of Florida, and that will continue for a day. Storm surge of up perhaps 10 feet will occur in the worst areas, but the exact location and severity will not really be known until it happens given the vagaries of wind, coastline, and hurricane track.

Since this is not a dynamic up to the second medium, I probably won’t be keeping up here on this blog post. For now, just take these items from the NHC into consideration:

Here is a link to the moving GIF of the storm. It is a beaut.
Key Messages:

INIT 27/1500Z 23.0N 83.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 24.4N 83.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 26.0N 83.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 27.1N 82.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 27.8N 82.1W 75 KT 85 MPH…INLAND
60H 30/0000Z 28.5N 81.7W 60 KT 70 MPH…INLAND
72H 30/1200Z 29.5N 81.5W 50 KT 60 MPH…INLAND
96H 01/1200Z 33.0N 81.8W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
120H 02/1200Z 35.0N 81.5W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

The interactive track map is a handy tool for planning your week if you live in Florida. Like this:

Finally, watch the rain. Rainfall up op to two feet is predicted near the coast and some ways inland, near Tampa Bay. Predictions vary, but I believe it is hard to predict rain at the higher end of the scale. It will rain everywhere in Florida and nearby Southeastern State of Georgian and South Carolina, and in mamny areas the rainfall amount will be round 6 inches or well over that amount.

The storm is expected to track diagonally across Florida to come near the Atlantic coast near Jacksonville by around Friday, then pass through Georgia and the Carolinas, affecting Tennessee, Kentucky, Virginia, later on. Presume that in hilly or mountainous areas, heavy rain will cause deadly flash flooding.

September 26th

Hurricane Ian is a hurricane. As of the latest update, Ian is a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds, but is likely to be a Category 2 storm within hours from now.

The storm track has been adjusted somewhat easterly so now the chance of encountering the northern west coast is higher than striking the panhandle, but all those areas will be affected by Ian. It is the opinion of storm chaser Reed Timmer (he noted this a few minutes ago) that Ian is liking the European models best, which would cause the storm to go right over the Cuban land mass at or near Havana, and possibly strike Florida’s west coast farther to the south than the NHC currently suggests.

The collection of the more reliable models show landfall of the eye as far west as Panama City, and as far east/south as Venice (just north of Fort Meyers). After that the storm will proceed inland over the Southeast, including Georgia, South Carolina, Etc. Hard to predict, but there is then a good chance that the storm will re-enter the Atlantic north of the Carolinas or behond.
The storm will be as far north as it is going to get before landfall by somewhere between Thursday night and Friday midday, at the latest, based on current estimates.

OK here’s the nuanced part: almost every model has Ian reaching the Category 3/4 boundary at some point. There is an excellent chance Ian will be a Category 4 storm. But that is an ephemeral conditions. While it is true that for humans once a goatf@cl3r always a goatf@ck3r, not so for hurricanes. Ian will reach its maximum strength while it is bnetwen western Cuba and aligned with (but not at) the southern tip of Florida. It will then begin to weaken. The center of Ian, which at this point may not be an eye, may reach landfall as a Tropical storm. It is possible that most of the wind realted damage Ian does in Florida will be wel lbefore landfall. Flooding inland is, of course, the biggest problem, and that will be determine by a combination of wetness of the storm and local terrain.

Because of this nuance, you will be hearing breathless reporting by the less than ideally informed press (are they expert on ANYTHING??) talking about Ian as a “Category 4 storm” hitting the coast at the time of landfall, but it won’t be. It may well be a Category 1 storm, or even a mere Tropical storm, as that magical moment of the center of the storm comes ashore.

This means that the most sever impacts may occur before, and south of, landfall. For example, the NHC suggests that the regions around Tampa Bay and Orlando, and a bit north, may experience severe flash flooding Wednesday night trhough Thrusda morning, while the storm’s eye is well off shore.

Bottom line: If you are in western Cuba, the Keys, or anywhere in Florida expect inclement weather and possibly deadly conditions at some time this week, lasting for several hours or even a day or so. Then, if you are in northern Florida, Alabama, Georgia, or the Carolinas, expect serious inland flooding late this week, through the weekend, and beyond a bit. If you are anwwhere in Appalachia, the Piedmont, or the coastal plain north of Georgia, expect heavy rain and flooding. One thing is for sure: There will be no snow.

My personal guess: Tampa is in for it, and coastal surge flooding from Tampa all the way south through the Everglades is highly likely. The storm is likely to come ashore as a hurricane, but less than a Major hurricane, somewhere between Tampa and the curvy part where the panhandle starts. What exactly happens there depends on exactly how strong the right front quadrant is, and the shape of the shoreline. If the storm comes ashore very near Cedar Key, for example, there may be severely flooded rivers and marshes.

Right now the highly experimental storm surge flooding estiamtes from the NHC suggest flooding abot 6 eet, possibly above 9 feet in some places, between at some locations (but not everywhere) between Clearwater (north of St Petersburg) and Marco Island (mostly 1-2 feet there). Storm surge estimates are subject to major change as conditions change.

Here is the most current NHC estimated track. Note the “M” for “Major” and “H” for non-major Hurricane.

The key messages from the NHC

1. Ian is expected to produce heavy rainfall and instances of
flash flooding and possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain,
particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Considerable flooding impacts
are possible later this week in west central Florida. Additional
flash and urban flooding, and flooding on rivers across the Florida
Peninsula and parts of the Southeast cannot be ruled out for later
this week.

INIT 26/0900Z 18.2N 82.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 19.7N 83.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 21.7N 83.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 23.6N 84.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 25.3N 84.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 28/1800Z 26.7N 83.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 27.7N 83.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 29.2N 83.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 01/0600Z 32.0N 82.9W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND

Remember Hurricane Irma (2017)? That storm hugged the Florida Coast and caused all sorts of problems. From Wikipedia, “In Florida, the storm damaged numerous homes and businesses, including more than 65,000 structures in the west-central and southwestern portions of the state alone. Approximately 50,000 boats were damaged or destroyed. At the height of the storm, more than 6.7 million electrical customers were without power. The storm also left flooding along at least 32 rivers and creeks, especially the St. Johns River and its tributaries. At least 84 deaths occurred in the state and damage was estimated at $50 billion. In other states, such as Georgia and South Carolina, Irma left some wind damage, tornadoes, and coastal flooding. Irma resulted in at least 92 deaths in the United States.”

Ian will not follow that coast-hugging path, most likely, but probably a more oblique approach to the west coast, and Ian will likely be stronger as it moves farther north, depending on what land mass it interacts with and how closely. But people of Florida will remember Irma while experiencing Ian.

Meanwhile, elsewhere in the Atlantic:

There is a stormy system forming in the middle of the Atlantic west of Cape Verde that is likely to reach namable tropical storm status, but then peter out. Otherwise nothing going on at the moment.

September 24th

Updated after 5PM reports from the National Hurricane Center

Remember, yesterday, when I cleverly avoided giving Blob 9 the name Gaston (which was next in line)? I was thinking that other forming systems in the Atlantic might grab a name or two first, and I was (by chance, I assure you) correct. As Fiona departs in the general direction of the Arctic, we now have a Gaston, a Hermine, and Ian. Ian is the one to be most concerned with so we’ll start there but briefly discuss all five (yes, five, because there is also an unnamed system out there). For reference and orientation, from the NHC:

Yesterday, it looked like Ian as going to slam into Cuba pretty much running right trough Havana’s back door. The estimated track has now shifted to the west a little, though Havana is still in the cone of uncertainty.

Yesterday, it looked like Ian was going to plow through Cuba as a Category 1 or maybe 2 hurricane, then increase in intensity to Major status (Category 3 or higher) over the Gulf of Mexico before, probably hitting Florida. Now, it looks like Ian may achieve Major status earlier than that.

Monday night through Tuesday morning: Ian will probably develop to Major Hurricane status while beginning to severely affect the far western area of Cuba.

Tuesday daytime: All of the more reasonable looking projections have Ian crossing Cuba near or just west of Havana or, perhaps, the eye crossing at the westernmost tip or even at sea to the west of the island nation. This puts some very tricky areas at a very high level of danger, where the right front quadrant of a major hurricane could cause significant storm surge. Most of the reasonable models have Ian at Category 3 level at that point, with wind speeds over 100 knots (110mph) and possibly close to 115 knots (130+ mph). Since the estimate itself is increasing in intensity, we should assume the worst just to be safe.

Wednesday, approximately: The storm will be grown and churning off the west coast of Florida, menacing the coast and about to land, or possibly, moving north toward the panhandle. Even over the last few hours, the likely track has shifted westward, and it seems that the most likely landfall of the eye will be the Florida Panhandle, plus or minus. But, the storm will likely have a strong impact all along Florida’s west coast.

You can see possible positions on this graphic:

The good news about this storm scraping the west coast of Florida is that it may weaken to a Category 1 storm before actual landfall, so coastal regions wherever it hits would experience a major disaster, rather than a disaster of epic proportions.

There is still uncertainty as to where the storm might land. Remember, hurricanes are huge. Tropical storm force winds are likely to arrive at the Florida Keys Monday late PM (8:00 or so), and along the coast of the panhandle 24 hours later, with similar levels of storminess affecting inland Alabama, Florida, and Georgia, and the east coast of the Southeast, through ?Wednesday and possibly beyond. There will be a lot of rain in Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, and South Carolina before Thursday morning.

Note that the Yucatan of Mexico is going to get very wet and windy as well.

The best and simplest estimate of what is going to happen is shown in this NHC graphic:

ass=”aligncenter size-large wp-image-34764″ />

The NHC key messages are:

1. Ian is expected to produce heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and
possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly over
Jamaica and Cuba. Limited flash and urban flooding is possible with
rainfall across the Florida Keys and Florida peninsula through mid
next week.

1. Hurricane or tropical storm conditions are expected on Grand
   Cayman beginning early Monday.

2. Ian is forecast to be a major hurricane when it passes near or
   over western Cuba, and there is increasing confidence in a
   life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds in portions
   of western Cuba beginning late Monday.

3. Ian is expected to remain a major hurricane when it moves
   generally northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the
   middle of next week, but uncertainty in the track forecast is higher
   than usual. Regardless of Ian’s exact track, there is a risk of
   dangerous storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall
   along the west coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle by the
   middle of next week, and residents in Florida should ensure they
   have their hurricane plan in place, follow any advice given by local
   officials, and closely monitor updates to the forecast.

Stay tuned.

Meanwhile, Fiona hit Canada today and wreaked havoc. The storm was still producing hurricane force winds as of this morning’s update from the NHC, and flooding and stomr surge are concerns. Key messages from the NHC:

1. Fiona is forecast to continue to affect portions of Atlantic
Canada during the next day or so, and significant impacts
from high winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected.
Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for much of
Atlantic Canada.

1. Heavy rains from Fiona are expected to continue to impact
   portions of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and western
   Newfoundland today, persisting across eastern Quebec and Labrador
   into Sunday. This rainfall is expected to produce flooding, some of
   which could be significant.

2. Large swells generated by Fiona are expected to cause
   life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the coast of
   the northeast United States, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during
   the next couple of days.

Gaston is a tropical storm far out ijn the Atlantic, and it is weakening. It is not going to become a hurricane, and will move west and southwest as it transitions from storm to mere depression.

Named storm Hermine is a weak tropical storm being shorn up by shearing winds, and is expected to move into an area even less conducive to development. It too is likely to peter out over the next few days.

There is a new wave coming off the African coast, as yet unnamed, that has a modest chance (30%) of being a named storm in five or so days. Some models have this storm turning into a hurricane in several days from now. It is moving roughly west, or west northwest. This is one to keep an eye on.

September 23rd

The blob of the Eastern Caribbean is real, a threat, and about to be named something other than “Number Nine.”

This morning, the NHC reports that this weather feature is having a hard time with shear and keeping a good shape. Aren’t we all. It is still heading west-northwest, and is likely to turn northwest and north on its way to Cuba. But the factors that would cause that to happen are multiple and rely on other weathery things to occur as well. However, right now, it is becoming very likely that this storm will cross the island nation of Cuba, with Havana dead in the middle of the most likely track (but Havana is on the north side, so it won’t won’t be a direct sea-ward hit).

The storm will likely be a Hurricane before hitting Cuba, presumably to weaken over land, but then, the best predictions have it be a major hurricane before hitting Florida, along the West Coast. However, it is way to early to presume it would not hit in some other area of the Gulf Coast.

No, Mar-a-Largo is not likely in the path of this storm, but will presumably take some rain. The most likely areas to be affected are somewhere along Fort Meyers north to north of Tampa, somewhere in there. IE, no clue at this point. Or, many clues, too many clues. There are several models that have this storm striking even farther north, along the Florida Panhandle, and a few models that have it curving so tightly it actually does graze Florida’s Atlantic coast as it heads up across the Atlantic.

This is the prettiest and most chaotic map showing different models that is currently available, to give you a sense:

As contrasted with this more paired down map showing a more likely set of scenarios, or at least, limited to a more manageable time period of projection:

And finally, the National Hurricane Center’s much more paired down version:

Note that this map features the following key moments:

By about 72 hours from now, this will be a hurricane with maximum winds at about 75 knowts (85mph), looming south of Cuba.

By about 96 hours from now, the storm will have CROSSED THE ISLAND and will be re-entering the sea near Havana, and will have maximum winds close to 90 knots (105 mph). The amount of destructive rain on the high and back side of Havana and on the southern coast may be devastating.

By about 120 hours from now, so next Wednesday or so, the storm may be coming ashore as a MAJOR HURRICANE with winds maximum winds of 100 knots (115 mph) and gusts of 120 knots (140 mph). That’s a Category 3 hurricane. For the record, the middle of that track at US landfall is Cape Coral, Florida, but the Zone of Uncertainty includes the Bahamas on the right, and perhaps Panama City on the left. So don’t count your chickens, but do make sure their coup is battened down.

Note: At this point, Key West has to assume it will be served with the right-front-brunt of this storm, with 100mph plus winds, by Tuesday morning. The storm may change its course or strength development, but this is a vulnerable spot possibly about to face a near worst case scenario.

The NHC Key Messages are:

1. The depression is expected to produce heavy rainfall and
instances of flash flooding and possible mudslides in areas of
higher terrain in Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao. Heavy rains are also
likely to spread into Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Cuba in the
coming days.

1. The depression is expected to approach Jamaica as a tropical
   storm on Sunday and the Cayman islands as a hurricane on Monday.
   Watches for these locations may be required later today or on
   Saturday.

2. Early next week the system is forecast to move near or over
   western Cuba as a strengthening hurricane and then approach the
   Florida peninsula at or near major hurricane strength, with the
   potential for significant impacts from storm surge, hurricane-force
   winds, and heavy rainfall. While it is too soon to determine the
   exact magnitude and location of these impacts, residents in Cuba,
   the Florida Keys, and the Florida peninsula should ensure they have
   their hurricane plan in place and closely monitor forecast updates
   through the weekend.

Go here to get the current public advisory from the National Hurricane Center.

September 22nd

The blob in the southeastern Caribbean is a concern. Over the next few days, it will move through the Caribbean from east to west, trending slightly north, and likely turn into a Category 1 hurricane. It is possible that it will become a much stronger hurricane, and it is possible that it may curve dramatically north at some point, maybe running into Cuba. But most likely it will go west and northwest far enough to either run into the Yucatan, or head north into the Gulf of Mexico between Cuba and the Yucata. But really, it could end up anywhere between Honduras and the Atlantic Cooast of Florida (after running over Cuba) and it could end up in strength anywhere between a Category 1 and a Category 4 hurricane.

Short version, to not take your eyes off of this storm. The next three names in line are Hermine, Ian and Julia. This storm is likely to take the next one in line, but there are three blobby stormy things going right now, so avoid placing bets.

I’m putting a spaghetti model image here. Don’t put much faith in this yet, but this storm is real and is not going to disappear, so this provides an idea of where on the map one should be concerned.

One of those other blobs is just sliding off the west coast of West Africa, into an area conducive to development. We could have a named storm by the end of the weekend. Early modeling suggests very little of certainty, but this storm, while developing quickly, might be a nothingburger.

There is a slower developing storm already in the middle of the Atlantic that some models have developing to a Category 1 or stronger hurricane, with little good information on what it might do or where it might go.

September 20th

Fiona is still menacing Puerto Rico and nearby islands, dumping literally feet of rain in some areas. The electricity remains off in much of PR, and people are asking questions about what happened to the supposed attempts to improve infrastructure there since the devastation caused by Maria.

An active tropical wave is forming east of the Windwards, and is expected to develop into a named storm over the next few days. It may have a major impact on Trinidad and Tobago, hitting that region as a strong tropical storm, then lifting into the southeastern Caribbean where it would fester into a Category 1 hurricane (with potential to become stronger) after which it would head towards somewhere between Central America and Jamaica. Too early to say any of this for sure, but that is the current plan. Plans change, especially for tropical storm. But, in any event, this storm will be interesting and a little unusual with its southern track.

September 18th

Fiona is now a Hurricane, and is menacing Puerto Rico. The island has lost all of its power. Fiona is expected to turn north and head out to the mid North Atlantic over the next day or so.

September 15th

OK this is getting boring. Fiona is a storm heading for Puerto Rico. It will then graze the Dominican Republic and probable enwetten the Bahamas. It will not become a hurricane an time in the future. Or ever. That is all have a nice day.

September 9th

Earl, a hurricane, is heading off to the North Atlantic Hurricane Graveyard. Nothing else is happening in the Atlantic, all other possible storms having dissipated.

September 4th

As expected, “Disturbance 1” has turned into a named storm, and it is named Earl. Different from origionally suspected, Earl will become a hurricane in about 48 hours from now, plus or minus, so say, by Tuesday late. On the way to that process, the storm will move north towards the upper-middle of the Atlantic, and strengthen slowly, perhaps reaching Category 2 or even Category 3 status. Some models have Earl kissing Category 4 in about four or five days, and after that, who knows what it going to happen?

Meanwhile, Danielle continues to be a hurricane, and is expected to peak over the next day or so, then peter out as it heads roughly towards the part of Europe that has both England and France in it. Could be a storm hitting Spain, could e a storm hitting Irlenad, one crazy model has it menacing Iceland. We shall see. But it won’t be a hurricane at that time.

Meanwhile, Active System #1 is slipping off the west coast of West Africa, and has a mere 20% chance of developing over the next five days or so.

September 1st

Danielle is a hurricane.

One of those stormy blobs floating around in the Atlantic has gone and turned itself into a hurricane.

For the next few days, Danielle is going to sit there in the middle of the Atlantic, spinning up to Category 2, maybe Category 3 strength. Then it will move north slowly, remaining as a hurricane for the reasonably foreseeable future. So, if you are in a boat in the Atlantic you might want to drive around it.

Danielle is way north for a forming hurricane, so the usual top down photo is at an odd angle, but you can see the storm clearly here:

Meanwhile, farther south, “Disturbance 1” is working hard to become Earl the Hurricane. “East of the Leeward Islands: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands have recently decreased in coverage. Although environmental conditions remain only marginally conducive, any additional development of the system over the next few days would lead to the formation of a tropical depression. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly west-northwestward, toward the adjacent waters of the northern Leeward Islands.” A nameable storm has about a 50-50 chance of forming by Saturday, a somewhat better chance of forming by early to mid week next week. As noted earlier, this storm is likely to recurve up into the middle/north Atlantic, but Leeward Islands eastern Greater Antilles, keep an eye on this storm. Wanna-be-Earl is likely to not exceed Category 1 strength.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic stormy thing 2 is just off the African coast and not expected to do anything over the next several days.

August 30th

Between Thursday and Saturday, there is a good chance that the system we have been talking about will become a namable tropical storm. This would occur northeast of the Leeward Islands. By late in the weekend or early next week, there is a small possibility that it will grow to Category 1 Hurricane strength. However, there is a greater likelihood that this storm will never make hurricane status. That will be about the time the storm, probably, begins to change course and head north to travel up into the Atlantic following the usual curved pathway of death many hurricanes follow.

The storm just coming off the African coast is expected to maybe develop into something the peter out pretty quickly.

In sum, the late August promise of hurricanes forming during the actual hurricane period was overstated.

August 29th

Don’t take your eyes off the Atlantic Hurricane Basin.

The stormy zone we’ve been looking at for a few days is highly likely to develop into something by Saturday or so. If it does, it will almost certainly trend north of the Leeward Islands, and quite possibly not go near any major land masses, though there is always Bermuda to run into. Way too early to say. But to the extend that we want an early look at spaghetti, almost all models have this storm recurving out into the Atlantic, though some have it menacing the Bahamas. But, the storm could develop into an actual hurricane, maybe even a Category 2 hurricane.

Meanwhile, a second storm is creeping off the African coast, and the National Hurricane Center gives this one a 40% chance of developing over the next 5 days. Most likely, this storm will move over cooler water and peter out.

There is still plenty of Saharan dust out ther but it is diminishing and breaking up.

August 27th later that hour

Oops. As I was getting the previous update ready, “Disturbance 1” vanished and is no longer being tracked. So old Disturbance #2 is now New Disturbance4 #1, and Old Disturbance #1 is noted as item 2, a possible trough of low pressure that could develop later. There is now an item 3 which is “A tropical wave … forecast to move off the west coast of Africa early next week. Some gradual development of the system is possible during the middle of next week while it moves generally westward across the far eastern tropical Atlantic. This may be the one to look out for since it may be moving over waters a bit warmer as Saharan dust moves northerly or diminishes in intensity over the next few days.

August 27th

The 2022 Atlantic Tropical Storm Season is starting to make snuffling noises and shift around in bed like it is about to wake up.

First, let us dispense with disturbance #2. This is an area of low pressure that might develop by late next week into something, as it moves from the northwestern Caribbean Sea towards the Yucatan. This might end up being an important rain event, but the chances of it turning into an actual tropical storm are low.

Disturbance #2 is in the central tropical Atlantic. It is according to the National Hurricane Center, “An elongated area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean” … “producing some disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally favorable for some gradual development of this system over the next several days, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week as it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph toward the waters east of the Leeward Islands.”

The chance of formation of a storm over a five day period is 40%. Not super impressive but it is all we’ve got right now.

The problem continues to be the dust off the Sahara, which attenuates hurricane formation. There is still a lot of dust:

Stay tuned.

August 23rd

Things might be getting a little interesting. Suddenly there are three things to look at in the tropical Atlantic. One is number 2 on this map, and this is the system we’ve been looking at over the last few days. It is expected to fizzle. Two is number 2 on this map, and it is near the coast of South America. Small chance of developing, I’d estimate, but we’ll keep an eye on it.

Three is a hopeful wave coming off the West African coast, not even in the Atlantic yet, but as they say in tropical meteorology, there is importance in being earnest.

From the NHS:

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa in
a couple of days. Environmental conditions could support some slow
development of this system late this week or over the weekend
while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

This one may come of the coast in time to pick up some good atmospheric conditions, like I’ve been promising you. We’ll know by the middle of next week is system #3 is a charm.

August 21st

OK so that blob near Mexico is done. Now we have a new disturbance sitting, as I write this, on top of Cape Verde. There is a modest chance that this stormy area will develop into a named storm, but unlikely. Perhaps we need a few more days for the Saharan dust blobs, attenuators of Atlantic tropical storms, to settle. The current plume of Saharan dust is large and dense. It is expected to decrease in intensity soon. In fact, the largest blob of dust seems to be followed by a somewhat more broken up blob of dust. I would expect this current possible form to dissipate, and perhaps the next one (in five or six days?) have a much greater potential to form.

August 19th

There is a notable disturbance in the SW Gulf of Mexico that has an excellent chance of developing into a named storm before passing over land in the vicinity of NE Mexico. It is remotely possible that this storm, if it continues to exist, will become a factor in the Western Pacific Basin in several days.

August 16th

A wave of Saharan dust killed that last possible storm, and this was one of several waves of dust that have apparently attenuated the hurricane season so far. But other than dust, all the other conditions for hurricane formation are in place and suitable for significant activity. It is expected that the dust will clear, as it were, around August 25th plus or minus a couple of days, so the last week of August should see the actual start of an actual season of actual hurricanes.

At present there is a large wet spot off the east coast of Central America that has a low chance of formation over the next five days. I did not note the formation of a large wet spot off the coast of Texas a few days ago, which moved on shore. None of this is going to do anything, most likely.

In essence, today starts a 10 day countdown, or maybe an 8 or 12 day countdown, to the formation of the first storm, likely off the West African coast, that will a few days later become a named storm. Or, possibly, not.

August 11th

The below mentioned possible tropical storm is now projected to have a zero percent chance of formation over the next five days.

This does not mean that this large wet spot won’t eventually do something interesting, but we’ll have to wait and see.

August 7th

To date, this has been a relatively tranquil Atlantic Hurricane season. That is not unusual. It is typical for few named storms to form prior to August 1st, as shown in this graphic from Wikipedia:

The National Hurricane Center tells us that “A tropical wave located just off the west coast of Africa is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for gradual development of this system while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic, and a tropical depression could form around the middle part of this week.”

The next named storm will be called Danielle. Will it be this disturbance? Yes. Or no. We don’t know. Stay tuned.

June 24th

Although it is too early to say much, about half the known models now put this storm (as yet unnamed) strengthening to hurricane level, possibly reaching or going beyond Category 2. Most of the models also having it brushing the coast of South America and possibly making landfall in Central America, which is a bit odd.

June 23rd

There is a disturbance in the Atlantic.

It is off the coast of West Africa, and heading due west. It is expected to strengthen to Tropical Storm level and will probably be a named storm, but it may or may not become a hurricane. Then, early estimates suggest it will weaken. That does not rule out the possibility that this storm would then seed another cycle of strengthening, but it is way too early to say.

June 12

Sorry to intrude, and this is probably not a very important update, but here goes: There is nothing of interest happening in the Atlantic Basis with respect to tropical storms.

But, there is a new storm forming in the Eastern Pacific, and you know what happened last time that occurred! (See below.)

This newly forming storm is likely to become a tropical storm, but not likely to become a hurricane. It is likely to not land ashore, but it could bring some stormy conditions to Mexico’s pacific coast or along Central America’s coast. It is highly unlikely to make the transition to an Atlantic storm.

So, really, this wasn’t very interesting. Sorry.

June 5

Oh yea of little faith, shut up!

Alex Lives! Impressive and important Eastern Pacific Hurricane Agatha ran hard into Mexico, lingered as a giant wet spot over the land, emerged in along the Gulf/Caribbean border, rained on Florida, exited to the Atlantic, all the time being unnamable, but then got itself organized to become Alex the Tropical Cyclone!

So, one storm system, two names, each the first in it’s own basin for the year.

Alex nee Agatha will move across the mid Atlantic from west to east, menacing Bermuda, as a tropical storm, until it turns back into a tropical depression about a third of the way to Europe. There is a tropical storm warning in effect for Bermuda.

June 3

It turns out that the storm we have watching has failed to become sufficiently organized to be deemed a tropical cyclone. It remains a tropical storm, with several different centers, and is not expected to become a named storm. It will rain all over Florida, but will not exhibit the remarkable behavior of being the first of the season hurricane, or even just a named storm, in first the Eastern Pacific then the Atlantic.

June 1

This is the first day of the Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2022.

Nee Agatha is now heading towards the Atlantic the hard way, through the Yucatan. This is probably not good for the Yucatan. There is a high probability that this disturbance will turn into a namable tropical storm over the weekend or soon after. It would become Alex, unless another disturbance located near the Bahamas gets to that stage first (unlikely). For reference, here are the storm names for the Atlantic basin this year:

The list of names for 2022 is as follows:

Alex
Bonnie
Colin
Danielle
Earl
Fiona
Gaston
Hermine
Ian
Julia
Karl
Lisa
Martin
Nicole
Owen
Paula
Richard
Shary
Tobias
Virginie
Walter

Note that last year, the name “Ida” was retired from the list.

May 30

If you go right now (mid day Tuesday, 31 May, 2022) to the National Hurricane Center’s site and look at the Eastern Pacific and the Atlantic (go back and forth, look at Mexico) you’ll that the Pacific side shows the remains of Hurricane Agatha over the highlands, and being ripped apart into a possible tropical depression. Then, if you look at the Atlantic side you’ll see a “large and complex area of low pressure” that has a 70% chance of developing into some sort of tropical storm over the next 5 days.

And they are the same thing!

So, the first storm of the season in the Eastern Pacific basis, named Agatha, was the strongest storm recorded yet to hit the west coast of Mexico (most Eastern Pacific storms move westish and don’t hit Mexico), and that first storm of the season, a few days early by the way, is not crossing Mexico where, with good timing and the right conditions, it will become the first tropical storm for the season in the Atlantic.

I don’t think this has happened recently, if ever.

If and when this large and complex thing makes this transition, they will go from Agatha to Alex. Agatha will be Alex’s dead name, meteorologically speaking. Alex will have some work to do to break its own record, other than being a transitional Pacific to Atlantic storm, early in the season, and all that.

Of the too early to really use available models, most have Alex not developing past tropical storm strength, but some have it barely touching hurricane status. But if it is ever going to get to hurricane status, that would be in a few days from now. I wouldn’t put much faith in these predictions, either way, until at least two days from now, so mid day Thursday.

Those few models that have the storm moving away from the southern Gulf at all have it slicing Florida in half. Not literally, just in terms of its route. But again, tool early to say. This will be an interesting storm to track.

The information below is still pretty accurate for Dorian, except a few important details.

1) The storm is now expected to move more slowly as it gets closer to the Florida coast. This means that the timing is shifted later, possibly by a half a day or more. But, this is not certain, so if you were planning on buying umbrellas don’t put that off. Or, evacuation. Don’t put that off either.

2) For the same reason, the slowdown, Dorian may spend more time in a position to remain strong off the coast but still hitting the coast with severe winds and storm surges, for a longer period of time.

With hurricanes, fast is better, once you know they are coming.

Chances are about even that Dorian will affect the Florida coast as a Category 3 or a Category 4 hurricane. The centerline prediction from the National Hurricane Center has Dorian as just barely a Category 4 as it makes landfall, but as a mid-range Category 4 (i.e., more severe) prior to getting near the coast. This will, of course, cause confusion as reporters spew poorly formed sentences like “Dorian has weakened” instead of “Dorian has made the expected adjustment from a very very very dangerous storm to a very very very dangerous storm because it lost some of its energy scraping your homes and beaches into the sea” or words to that effect.

Best guess right now: Dorian will be a Category 3/4 hurricane as it moves onto land over a several hour long slog centered on about 2:00 AM on Tuesday morning. It will remain a hurricane, but weakening to a Category 1 storm over the next 24 hours as it moves well inland, veering north. Tropical storm force winds will be arriving on the Florida coast early Sunday morning.

The center point for landfall of the eye, with lots of areas to the north and south affected, is West Palm Beach or a bit north of there. 24 hours later, still as a hurricane, the storm may be just south of Orlando.

The norther Bahamas are going to have something very close to a direct hit.

The Hurricane Center has not yet put out information about storm surges, because the possible range of actual landfall is still too uncertain. Indeed, it is still possible that the storm will turn north and hardly hit anything.

It was looking for a while there that Dorian, after moving well inland in Florida, would then stay inland a couple/few hundred miles and find a track across all the states to Maine. Now, it is looking more like it will pop back across the coast and go up the Atlantic, either near the coast nor farther at sea. That would make Dorian’s future very unpredictable, and I suppose it would open up the possibility of reforming as a hurricane.

OLDER POST:

Most of the models show Hurricane Dorian striking the Atlantic Coast of Florida, though the exact location is not something that can be predicted yet. Somewhere between Palm Coast and Miami, most likely near Melbour, Palm Bay or Port St Lucie. That’s a pretty large area.

This depends, however, on a weather system that is only now forming up north of Dorian, which would cause the storm to not to the usual pull-out where the storms go north and head in the general direction of Bogna Riva.

And, if that weather system forms, some models say its western end will weaken, and that would be an escape door Dorian might use for that northward turn.

So, there is maybe a one in ten chance Dorian will bug out before hitting Florida. There is a small possibility it will come right up to Florida and then bug out, meaning, it would scrape the coast of Florida and Georgia, or just inland, at first as a hurricane then as a tropical storm.

But most likely, Dorian is going to slam into the Atlantic coast of Florida, then move inland. After moving inland, it is very likely to then stay inland, as a major storm of some sort, dumping rain and blowing winds in inland Florida, Georgia, maybe all the way up to Maine. That should be interesting. Wet, and interesting.

How strong will Dorian be? Don’t believe the hype Major news outlets are suddenly saying that Dorian may be a Category 4 storm. Maybe. But almost every model puts Dorian squarely in the extremely dangerous major-storm Category 3 range, with just a couple of models showing it forming into a Category 4 storm. One model actually shows it becoming a Category 5 storm.

But these categories are felatas. You evacuate and/or batten down the hatches for a Category 3 storm because that is a killer storm. You can save the discussion of whether your house was flattened, flooded, or flew away by a Cat 3 vs a Cat 4 storm felata.

When will Dorian strike?

As you know, “ladnfall” is not when a hurricane strikes. It strikes when the storm’s outer bands come ashore and start making for a lot of rain, some wind. It strikes when a storm surge comes through, and the timing of that can vary a lot. It strikes when the hurricane force bands arrive, which can be hours before, and continue hours after, the eye comes ashore.

The Center of the storm is currently predicted to be in “striking” distance at about sunup on Monday morning. SO, overnight Sunday to Monday is a safe estimate of when Dorian might be “strking.”

By sunup the next day, the storm should be well inland, probably turning north, and very large, wet, dangerous, but probably not really a hurricane any more.

The National Weather Service suggests that tropical storm force winds will arrive on the coast of Florida between nightfall Saturday and maybe midnight.

One more small detail: It is possible that Dorian, if it strikes Florida, will pass into the Gulf. If it does, then that will be interesting.

That’s because hurricanes don’t really have a lot of lightning. But why?

The reason is that thunderstorms are up-down things, and hurricanes are round-and-round things. The updownness of winds in thunderstorms causes ice and water droplets to interact in a way not totally different from a balloon rubbing against a wool sweater, causing a charge differential to build up, with the upper parts of the forming thunderclouds being more positive than the lower parts (and the ground). Lightning is the discharge across that differential.

That up-down dynamic does exist in hurricanes, and there is some lightning and thunder, just not much. Most of the energy dynamic in a thunderstorm is rapid uplift of air into the thunderhead, so the thunderstorm is all about forming a charge differential. Most of the energy dynamic in a hurricane is much larger scale, much more horizontal.

It may be the case that lightning is most likely to develop along the eye wall of the strongest hurricanes. Emily, a 2005 Category 5 hurricane, was seen to have an unusual amount of lightning in the eye wall, and that prompted further research into the phenomenon. Katrina, Andrew and Rita had a lot of lighting around the eye. It has been suggested that lightning activity along the eye wall picks up when a strong hurricane is increasing in strength. So there is a hurricane-lightning link, but thunderstorms are major lightning machines.

NASA Finds Intense Lightning Activity Around a Hurricane’s Eye

Maximum hurricane intensity preceded by increase in lightning frequency

Polarity and energetics of inner core lightning in three intense North Atlantic hurricanes

The Morphology of Eyewall Lightning Outbreaks in Two Category 5 Hurricanes

This is a picture of some men.

Since they are men, they have some abilities. They can, for example, knock each other over, and they can play with balls. This is what men do, and this is what these men can do.

This is a picture of some professional NFL foodball players.

They are also men. They can also knock each other over, and they can also play with balls. But the NFL football players are much better at knocking each other over, and you wouldn’t believe how great they are at playing with balls.

They are NFL enhanced. They are trained, embiggened with special diets, and they are clad with armor and vibrant, often scary, colors.

This is a picture of a hurricane from 1938.

It was a big one; It did lots of damage when it slammed into New England and New York.

A hurricane is a large storm that forms in the tropics, and sometimes hits land. The energy from a hurricane comes from a combination of the earth’s spin, trade winds, and so on, but mainly, from the heat on the surface of the sea. The rain that falls from the hurricane also comes mainly from the sea surface indirectly, and any water that evaporates into the atmosphere.

This is a picture of Harvey the Hurricane, the remnants of which are still circulating around in Texas.

Harvey is a lot like the 1938 hurricane, in that it formed in the tropics, in the Atlantic, and was a big spinny thing. It got its energy in the same way, and formed in the same way, and both slammed into land and scared the crap out of everybody.

But they are different, the 1938 Hurricane and Harvey the Hurricane. How are they different? Have a look at this map:

The pairs of photos above show “then” and “now” for two different things (men and hurricanes). This map shows both then and now in the same graphic. This map represents the current sea surface temperature anomalies, meaning, how much warmer or cooler the current sea temperatures are compared to the same time of year but at some time in the past, averaged over a long period, in this case, from 1971-2000. Global warming was well underway during that period, so present sea surface temperature readings that are above that baseline are not only high but are actually very high, because the baseline is high.

In this map, red is more, blue is less. Look at all the nearly ubiquitous more-ness in sea surface temperatures around the world. That causes the atmosphere across the entire globe to potentially contain much more water vapor than it could have contained during that that baseline period. Look at the sea surface temperature anomalies for the gulf of Mexico, where Harvey formed. They are high. This means that any hurricane that formed over that extra warm water will be stronger, and any tropical storm system that occurs pretty much anywhere on this map (or round the other side of the Earth as well, for that matter) will contain more water, than it would if it existed and all else was equal several decades ago.

This is a picture of a Unicorn.

A unicorn poops rainbows and pees mimosas. Or so I’m told. This is another view of Harvey the Hurricane.

What is the difference between the unicorn and Harvey? Harvey is real, and the unicorn is not.

I won’t quote you or give you links. Why? Because I find this whole thing a bit too embarrassing. But here is the thing. Otherwise intelligent and well informed individuals have stated in various outlets, including major media, and including twitter, that it is simply inappropriate to claim that Harvey the Hurricane is in any way global warming enhanced.

This is wrong. There is no such thing as a storm of any kind that is not a function of the current climatology. The current climatology has widespread and persistent, and in many cases alarmingly high, sea surface temperature anomalies. There will not be a tropical storm, including hurricanes, that escape the physics and poop out rainbows and pee mimosas. They will all be real. They will all have greater power and more moisture than they otherwise would have, had they formed decades ago before the extreme global warming we have experience so far.

There was a time when Harvey was a rabbit, an invisible rabbit only seen by a delusional character in a movie, played by Jimmy Stewart. Today, we have Harvey the Unenhanced Storm, playing that role. It is a fiction, something seen by a few but that is no more real than the above depicted unicorn.

As I was writing this post, Michael Mann posted an item in the Guardian that makes this case.

He says (click here for the whole story):

Sea level rise attributable to climate change – some of which is due to coastal subsidence caused by human disturbance such as oil drilling – is more than half a foot (15cm) over the past few decades … That means the storm surge was half a foot higher than it would have been just decades ago, meaning far more flooding and destruction.

… sea surface temperatures in the region have risen about 0.5C (close to 1F) over the past few decades from roughly 30C (86F) to 30.5C (87F), which contributed to the very warm sea surface temperatures (30.5-31C, or 87-88F).

… there is a roughly 3% increase in average atmospheric moisture content for each 0.5C of warming. Sea surface temperatures in the area where Harvey intensified were 0.5-1C warmer than current-day average … That means 3-5% more moisture in the atmosphere.

That large amount of moisture creates the potential for much greater rainfalls and greater flooding. The combination of coastal flooding and heavy rainfall is responsible for the devastating flooding that Houston is experiencing.

… there is a deep layer of warm water that Harvey was able to feed upon when it intensified at near record pace as it neared the coast….

Harvey was almost certainly more intense than it would have been in the absence of human-caused warming, which means stronger winds, more wind damage and a larger storm surge…

Mann mentions other effects as well, but I’ll let you go read them.

The extra heat at depth Mann mentions is now recognized as responsible for the extra bigness and badness of some other famous hurricanes as well, such as Katrina and Haiyan. Harvey might be a member of a small but growing class of hurricanes, deep-heat hurricanes I’ll call them for now, that simply did not exist prior to global warming of recent decades. Further research is needed on this, but that’s the direction we are heading.

Climate scientist Kevin Trenberth recently noted that “The human contribution can be up to 30 percent or so up to the total rainfall coming out of the storm,”

Aside from Michael Mann’s Guardian article, he has this facebook post making the same argument.

Harvey the Hurricane is real, and so was the 1938 Hurricane. Climate change enhancement of Harvey is real, but unicorns are not. Sadly.

I really thought we had stopped hearing this meme, that “you can never attribute a given weather event to climate change.” But, apparently not. That is a statement that is technically true in the same way that we can’t really attribute an Alberta Clipper (a kind of snow storm) to the spin of the Earth. Yet, somehow, the spin of the Earth is why Alberta Clippers come from Alberta. In other words, the statement is a falsehood that can never be evaluated because it is framed incorrectly. Here is the correct framing:

Climate is weather long term, and weather is climate here and now. The climate has changed. Ergo … you fill in the blank. Hit: Unicorns are not involved.

See: Highlights of Climate Change Research in 2015

It should be noted right away that 2015 is the last year in which any human alive will see CO2 levels dip below 400 parts per million.

What is the biggest single weather related news of 2015?

Floods, probably. Around the world, there were a lot of floods, and a lot of them were very damaging and deadly. Also, many of these floods appeared with little warning, even in places like Texas, where the meteorology is pretty good. Those Texas floods were of special note, as were the floods in the Carolinas. But outside the US there were major floods in Asia, especially Vietnam and Myanmar, as well as Yemen. Alaska, Oklahoma, Atacama in South America, also saw severe floods.

Why were there so many floods?

I’m pretty sure it is accurate to say that there was more flooding, and more severe flooding, than typical for, say, 20th century climatology. We had many 1,000 year flood events, too many to assume that these events remain as 1,000 year events.

See: Global Warming Changing Weather in the US Northeast

There are probably two or three reasons for increased flooding, which of course is caused by increased and concentrated rainfall along with other factors such as land use changes that cause rainfall to result in more flooding. One is the simple fact that a warmer atmosphere, due to global warming, contains more water, and thus, we get more rain. How much more? Not a lot, but enough to make a difference. If you put together a bunch of weather data and plot the annual precipitation rate over the last century or so, and fit a line to the data, the line will look flat. It isn’t really flat, and in fact, a properly fitted line on good data will show a statistically significant upslope. But still, the total amount of extra precipitation is a small percentage of the usual amount of precipitation, so the slope is not impressive unless you draw it out using heavy-handed graphing methods.

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A few other places are doing end of year reviews. Inside Climate is doing a series of 2015 retrospectives. Skeptical Science has an overview of the year. Environmental health news has a wish list pivoting on 2015 and a year in review. And Then There’s Physics summarizes 2015. Critical Angle takes a critical look at 2015 here. If you see any more out there in the wild, let me know. Media Matters has “The 15 Most Ridiculous Things Conservative Media Said About Climate Change In 2015.” Media Matters also has 5 New Year’s Resolutions For Reporting On Climate Change. HotWhopper has The Fake Sceptic Awards for 2015 here.
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A second factor is a set of changes in how, when, and where the rain falls. Normally, in the temperate regions, rain storms move along with trade winds, guided or influenced by jet streams, fairly quickly. But if the jet streams slow down, the storms slow down, so we may see 4 inches of rain fall in one place that normally would have been spread out over a larger area, never exceeding half (or less) of that amount in any given area. The jet streams have slowed down and also become curvier, which both increases the amount of rain that falls in a give area but also may transfer moisture from and to places that are normally not involved as much in such a process. For example, the storm we are expecting today in the upper Midwest and Plains is not a typical Canadian Clipper, but rather a Gulf Coast storm related to the deadly blizzards and tornado swarms we’ve seen over the last few days to the south.

See: Does global warming destroy your house in a flood?

This clumping of rain in smaller areas also means that other areas that would normally have received some rain don’t, causing what my colleague Paul Douglas refers to as “flash droughts.” These are dry periods that don’t last long enough, and are not severe enough, to register on any official drought-o-meter, but nonetheless stress local water systems (such as farming) enough to be a nuisance.

A third factor is sea surface temperature. This really relates to, and is probably one of the main causes, of the first factor (increased precip overall), and feeds into the second factor (clumping of rain) but deserves its own consideration. Elevated sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic off the US coast last winter caused a lot more moisture than normal to feed into nor’easter storms, which in turn have become more common (because of increased sea surface temperatures and other factors), thus dumping large quantities of snow in the US Northeast. The same thing dumped lots of extra snow in a region that normally gets very little snow, the US Southeast, the winter before.

See: A selection of books on climate change

These changes have been happening for decades, and are due to global warming. The warming caused by the human release of extra greenhouse gasses, and other human effects, increase the warmth, thus the evaporation, thus the precipitation. Part of this warming trend involved increasing the warmth of the Arctic at a much higher rate than most of the rest of the planet. This, in turn, seems to have caused the jet stream to become wavy and slow down. The jet streams and trade winds are ultimately caused and controlled by the Earth spinning, which has not changed, and the temperature differential between the warm equator and the cold poles, which has changed quite a bit.

See: Weather Whiplash Is Like My Old Broken Sprinkler

But what about El Niño?

Didn’t El Niño cause these changes, and thus, aren’t these weather events unrelated to global warming?

No, and for two reasons.

First, many of these events happened during the first half of the year, before the start of the current El Niño, which is in fact the strongest El Niño so far observed directly, and possibly the strongest El Niño in millennia.

The second reason is that the heat released by the El Niño (the release of heat stored in the Pacific Ocean is what an El Niño is, in functional terms) is added to an already warmed world. It may even be that the extra severity of this year’s El Niño is upscaled by anthropogenic global warming. In any event, any records we set during the current El Niño exceed earlier El Niño years because the El Niños we experience are shorter term warming events on top of a steadily increasing global warming phenomenon.

We had a lot of fires

Last year and this year, or really, the last few years, have seen excessive, above normal rates of forest and brush fires in various regions. We have seen major fires in Australia, North America, and Southeast Asia during this period, with North America breaking several recent records this year.

See: Forest fires in Indonesia choke much of south-east Asia

These fires are caused by a combination of factors, but ultimately heat increasing evaporation, prior rainy years increasing available fuel, and warm winters increasing tree death to parasites (thus increasing fuel), all have contributed.

North America, in the old days, had much more fire-heavy years than anything recent because we were busy cutting down the forest, piling up “slash” (left over tree parts) and running sparky old fashioned coal-driven railroad engines up and down between the slash piles, catching them on fire. In addition, just burning the slash on purpose contributed to the overall amount of fire, especially when the slash fires got out of control.

We also saw some pretty impressive fires a couple of decades ago because of what we now know were bad fire management practices, which had actually grown out of those earlier decades of logging related fires. In other words, the frequency and distribution of forest and brush fires is complex. During aridification, probably global warming related, in Africa during the 70s and 80s, vast areas started to burn more regularly than usual. In those days, I would fly at night over Libya, Chad and the Sudan a couple of times a year, and could observe the entire region was burning all the time, easily visible from 26,000 feet.

The bottom line: The frequency and extent of fires is variable and chaotic, but anthropogenic global warming seems to have contributed significantly to us having more of them.

Were there more storms in 2015?

Record breaking tropical storms occurred in 2015. All of the tropical cyclone/hurricane basins saw interesting activity, with the Atlantic being the most quiet, and the Eastern Pacific, possibly, being the strangest.

There were 22 Category 4 or 5 storms this year in the Northern Hemisphere, a record number. The last record year was recent, 2004. Studies have shown overall that the total energy that forms up in tropical cyclones has increased with global warming, though the actual total number of storms is highly variable.

It is reasonable to expect an increase in the frequency and severity of tropical storms with global warming, while at the same time, in some areas, smaller storms may become less common. This is partly because smaller storms are more readily abated by some of the global-warming related changes in weather systems such as increased wind shear and increased dust in the tropical atmosphere. At the same time, extremely high sea surface temperatures, and also, high water temperatures as depth (100–200 meters) increase the potential strength of storms that do get past that initial formation.

Hurricane Patricia, in the Eastern Pacific (landfall in Mexico) was an especially important storm. It was a physically small storm, but had more powerful winds than ever seen in a tropical storm. The storm went from nothing to a full hurricane in several hours (instead of several days).

The significance of this can not be underestimated. We have a situation where the conditions that might cause a hurricane to form are extreme, because of global warming (and this year, more so because of El Niño). So, when when these conditions are in place, a hurricane can form faster, and get more powerful, than normal. Consider the prospect of a land falling Category 5+ storm forming offshore from an area with low lying terrain (not like where Patricia struck land) with a high population density (not like where Patricia struck land) and moving on shore immediately. Like for instance, an Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico version of Patricia making landfall near Miami or NOLA.

Most of the really large hurricanes of this year were in the Pacific basin, distributed across the entire region, but Hurricane Joaquin, which was a very large and powerful storm in the Atlantic, did have us on the edge of our seats for a while when some of the better weather predicting models suggested it might make landfall. Also, nearly unprecedented tropical storms formed near the Arabian Pennensula.

This was a hot year

Other than February, which was merely hot rather than really hot, globally, every month so far this year has broken or nearly broken one or more records, depending on which database one uses. The running 12-month average of surface temperatures started to break records before El Niño kicked in, and continued to do so since. This will continue for several more months, even if the El Niño phenomenon itself stops soon, because it takes several months for surface temperatures to show the El Niño effect.

More specifically, there were killer heat waves in the Western Cape of South Africa, South Asia, and the Middle East. Australia recorded its hottest day ever. North America experienced numerous record breaking days, in the US and Canada. Cherry trees thought it was spring and bloomed last week in Washington. I saw birds building a nest outside my house in Minnesota two weeks ago, and our lawn was green(ish) through last weekend.

Ocean Oddness and Other Events

Let us not forget the Great Blob of Hot Water in the northern Pacific. This non El Niño phenomenon, which has been going for a couple of years no, has had El Niño like effects in the region, and probably relates to the non normal weather in along the western coast of North America, including record breaking heat in Alaska, major storms in or near Alaska, and of course, the California Drought.

A Haboob-Nado in China involved some of the strongest winds ever seen in the region, and may have, very unusually, contained an embedded tornado. We had a mild tornado season in the US, in Tornado Alley, until a few days ago when a not-very-seasonal tornado season sprung up and killed close to 50 people in just a few days. The American southeast does get winter tornadoes, but Michigan does not. But this year, there was a first ever recorded December tornado in that state.

The Arctic Sea ice has been diminishing in its minimum extent for a few decades now, and this year we saw the third lowest amount. The volume of Arctic sea ice continues to shrink.

You all know about the Syrian Refugee crisis. This is the latest chapter in the collapse of the Syrian state, which in turn happened because of long term drought in that country killing off the agricultural system and forcing farmers into the cities, where many became involved in the Syrian Civil War, which opened up the opportunity for the Islamic State to take a large amount of territory in the region. And so on. The Syrian refugee crisis is likely to be an early version of more of the same to come over future decades. And, I quickly point out, this is not likely to have been the first climate refugee situation, just much worse than prior events related to the spread of deserts in North Africa and drying out in West Asia.

Research on Climate Change

This year saw some interesting research in climate change.

One team studies major oscillations in climate that relate to oceans (of which El Niño is a shorter-term smaller part). This research suggests that the last couple of decades have seen less warming than we might expect over the long term, and further suggests that an uptick in the rate of warming is in our medium term future.

Related research also shows that accelerated melting of northern glaciers, especially Greenland, could alter Atlantic currents, so while the Earth generally warms due to increased greenhouse gasses, weather may change to a colder regime in Europe, some time over the next few dedades.

We are seeing an increased rate at which climate and weather experts are attributing bad weather to global warming. This is partly a shift in thinking and methods among the experts, and partly because of an actual increase in such events.

There has been interesting research in the Antarctic. We are seeing increased concern about, and evidence for, destabilization of huge inland glaciers that could start to fall apart and contribute to sea level rise at any time in the next several years. At the same time we saw one study that seemed to suggest that Antarctic is gaining ice, rather than losing it. If that is true, than recent decades of sea level rise are partly unexplained. Alternatively, the research, which has some known flaws, may simply be wrong. Look for some interesting results related to Antarctic glacier during 2016.

The famous #FauxPause in global warming, claimed by many climate change deniers to be a real thing (no warming in X years, etc.) was already known to be Faux, but this year saw several independent nails being driven into that coffin. Rather than a pause that disproves global warming, we have a better understood series of changed in the long term warming in the planet’s surface temperature.

See: In a blind test, economists reject the notion of a global warming pause

Sea floor biotic diversity was shown to be threatened by warming, coral bleaching is more likely and in fact happening at a higher rate, and probably mostly due to El Niño, there has been some odd ocean animal migrations.

The planting zones, the gardening and agricultural zones we use to decide which crops to plant and when, have over the last several years shifted in most places in North America by one or two zones. This year, the people who make the zone maps came out with a new one.

Sea levels continue to rise, and the rate of rise is rising. Rare nuisance flooding in coastal areas, most famously but not only Miami, have become regular events. Sales in waterproof shoes are expected to increase.

Communication and Politics

Across meteorology we see the graph and chart makers scrambling to find new colors for their maps showing heat. Y-axes are being stretched everywhere. We seem to be stuck with a five level category system for tropical cyclones/hurricanes, but we are seeing so many storms that are way stronger, bigger, more destructive than earlier Category 5 storms that talk of adding a category is no longer being responded to with angry mobs of pitchfork wielding weather forecasters who came of age with the older system.

See: How to not look like an idiot

There has been a great deal of significant climate change related activism, and COP happened, with a strong message to address the human causes of climate change sooner than later. Climate change has actually become an issue in US elections. For the first time a major world leader, President Obama, has faced off with the deniers and told them to STFU. Major news outlets such as the Washington Post and the Guardian have started to take climate change seriously. The idea that reporters must give equal weight to the “two sides of the story” (science is real, vs. science is not real) is disappearing.

Denial of climate change and climate change science reached its high water mark over the last 12 months. It will now fade away.

And that is a short and incomplete summary of weather and climate in 2015.

A note for my regular readers: Yes, I chose the burning Earth graphic to annoy the denialist. Check the comments below to see if that annoyed anyone.