https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/perdue-ossoff-face-georgia-senate-debate-attack-goes-viral-n1245238

My comments refer specifically and only to polls that existed at the time that I mae the comments, when the sequence of number was:

+11 +11 +7 +2 -3

See how they are all going down?

Here is the key point: When we look at the numbers over all for any given race we see that they look good, but at the end, there is usually, almost always, a regression to a closer number.

If the regression is insufficient, the long time leader wins. If the regression is sufficient, the long time leader loses. This happened in five states in the electoral race in 2016, and 538 missed that, for example.

I am pointing out that regression, using the same polls you cite, but not the last couple.

The last four polls have the race within the margin of error. That the race was not in the margin of error a couple of weeks ago would not matter at all in a normal election year. AZ had a “surge” in early voting when it started a few weeks ago, and AZ is very impressed with itself, but I think the numbers are still a small proportion (you can research that and get back, I may be wrong).

Hopefully Kelly maintains his lead. But the only poll that counts is the one they count.

“However, I see the Senate winding up with (I’ll be bold) a five-seat Democrat majority”

I wish I were that optimistic. Due to widespread republican efforts to take away access to voting in districts where “those people” live and the general stupidity of many in the population (so they vote against their own best interest), I’d be amazed if the senate changed much at all.

However, I see the Senate winding up with (I’ll be bold) a five-seat Democrat majority.

The Cook Political Report says the three most vulnerable Republicans are Cory Gardner in Colorado, Martha McSally in Arizona. The next tier is Susan Collins in Maine, Tom Tillis in North Carolina, and Joni Ernst in Iowa.

It goes on to say that six, seven and eight on the GOP vulnerability list are the two races in Georgia and the Montana race.

It rates the Kansas contest as a tossup, but sees Texas, Kentucky, and Alaska remaining in Republican hands.

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/suddenly-nearly-anything-possible-senate-races

So it seems likely the GOP will lose its Senate majority.

Well, obviously, all the other races will leave the Senate with an even split if Trump wins, or an even split minus 1 if Biden winds, then, this race will go to ther unoff with Warnock and Loeffler, then the entire future of humanity will depend on the outcome of the Georgia special senate race in early January.

What else could possibly happen?

Yes!

I generally agree with your conclusions. I’m hopeful for South Carolina, however — and for Kansas, where I think Barbara Bollier might pull it out.

What do you expect for the other Georgia race, with Rev. Raphael Warnock vs. Kelly Loeffler?

This is coming down to how annoyed people might be with Greenfield for not cleaning out the swamp

Shouldn’t that be Joni Ernst?