That’s not a dirty little secret, that’s complete bullshit. Par for the course from you.

It feels like the number of people infected from each sick person has been dropping in the NorthEastern part of the country. So maybe we are getting close to herd immunity there.

Groan! Nowhere near for reasons detailed in a number of posts by a number of people with reliable sources and not the wishful thinking that you fixate on. You still do not understand herd immunity.

https://boingboing.net/2020/08/31/trumps-new-pandemic-boss-sco.html

I am not alone after all.

It makes sense – since it is happening naturally anyway. Protect the sick and elderly (which is what I have been saying), but get to herd immunity as fast as possible (trying to control numbers to keep hospitals at manageable levels). Makes sense to me.

I see the Washington post is using a 1% fatality rate and 65% for herd immunity. I think the fatality rate is more like .5% (assuming 10X cases to detected cases ratio), and the latest science shows the herd immunity can be achieved from 10-24% level, because of the existing pool of partially immune people (T-cell immunity from prior corona-viruses). So their 2.13M deaths number is probably high. I am guessing 500k or so deaths, more likely, and it could even be smaller than that if we are lucky.

Here is the dirty little secret – we don’t have a way to stop people from getting sick without the cure being worse than the disease. So all these deaths would have happened anyway – just stretched out over a longer period of time. Just look at the case numbers worldwide, and see that each country is struggling and the cases just keep mounting up anyway. It is irrational to blame any leader of any country for the deaths from COVID-19. So you can pretend that Trump is at fault for the 187,000 deaths if you want to – but most rational people don’t blame trump for a pandemic which is impacting every country on the planet. Shit happens and we just have to deal with it!

If we already have 60 million cases (10 x the detected number of 6M), we are already at 18.18% – so pretty close to potential herd immunity (if the current science is correct). I guess we will see – because we will be at 24% long before we get a vaccine.

It feels like the number of people infected from each sick person has been dropping in the NorthEastern part of the country. So maybe we are getting close to herd immunity there. The Western part of the country should be next, then the southern part and finally the midwest last. So we will see what happens.

At least we will learn a lot about herd immunity for corona-viruses out of this pandemic and therefore will be better prepared for the next one.

https://time.com/5883081/covid-19-transmitted-aerosols/