At this time, I’d give the dems just under a 50% chance of winning the house with sure seats. In other words, those are not in a probabilistic model, they are simply seats they will win, as is the case with most seats the Dems and GOP will win.

Of the remaining seats, if they win only one or two, they get a majority.

Keep in mind that out of hundreds of reps, a certain number die, go to jail, or bail, so you need a majority of more than one to be meaningful.

Of the remaining tossup seats, they are all likely to go Republican, but it is unlikely they will all go Republican. As it were. So this post is predicting a Democratic majority but a small one.

Those are all sources that gave Clinton a massive likelihood of wining over Trump. I gave that race a 50-50.

I’m not using the same model here as I did for Clinton-Sanders or Clinton Trump, but I’m also not making the same mistake the pollsters might be making now.

Using the probabilities above, Greg seems to be predicting, by my calculations (a Monte Carlo type program based on 1,000,000 simulated elections), a probability of about 39.7% of winning the house.

We can note that this a substantially less that the probabilities others are giving in my previous comment.

The Economist has a model, https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2018/05/24/whos-ahead-in-the-mid-term-race , gives the dems a 69% chance of taking control of the house.

PredictWise, https://markets.predictwise.com/politics/2018-congress-house , gives the dems a 67% chance of taking the house.

These numbers are just for a majority, not the size of the majority.

Looks like New Mexico 02 is going to the Republican. That is one of the 50-50 districts in the above chart.