Tod, I absolutely refuse to get in to the predictions game when it comes to the energy transition. So, your first statement is simply untrue. The transition to non-cobalt lithium batteries is well underway. I follow the literature fairly closely. This is not a pie in the sky breakthrough technology. I’m very careful about that.

I don’t actually expect battery performance to improve at orders of magnitude levels, but presumably single digit percentage level, maybe, in various ways.

Also, I think that while storage will always be important, and will be extra important over the next few years, I see a totally different solution taking up most of the variation.

Thanks for the link. Ammonia may well be on the list of the small number of technologies we’ll use where burning solid or liquid substances rather than electricity work best!

Todd, the problems in recycling lithium batteries is economic, not technical. The article you cite confirms this, but gives few details. On problem that article mentions is that manufacturers are not forthcoming about the contents of the batteries, making it much harder to recycle. That is not a technical problem.

I’m sure one could view the expense as a technical barrier, in the sense that the technology does not allow it to be cheap, but lithium batteries can be recycled.

At this point, the lithium part of this is an addressable problem. It is unclear to me how nickle will play out. Cobalt will be taken out of the equation.

Batteries are well along the way to be redesigned. There will be cobalt out of batteries in far less than ten years.

Lithium batteries are recyclable. The process of recycling them does not, at this time, make money. It costs money. By modern libertarian free-market worship standards, that means they can’t be recycled. But hey can be.

“massively extend their working life by repurposing them as grid or home storage after they are deemed to not be fit for automotive requirements.”

This is Tesla’s long-term strategy.

In the US the vast majority of individuals who we expect to live an average of another 30 years or so are simply never going to give up their cars. They must switch to electric, and that will happen when, finally, that is all you can get.

Actually Greg, I think we’re on the same page. I know the average European/American/etc. car owner alive today won’t give up the personal ownership. But when I talk about the ‘serious’ energy transition – 80% decarbonisation of electricity supply – that would be approaching 2050 and beyond, which keys with the 30yr timescale.

After that, things will probably have to change for reasons of energy supply and material sustainability. And of course, the trend towards urbanisation will help, as you say. It’s going to be very different, down the road.