You’ve made statements above and elsewhere that are divergent from those that science presents, and on the basis of your stated divergences you make assumptions that there is little risk from humans warming the planet.

Can you please detail the basis for your own particular framing of the human impact on the Earth’s climate, with reference to all of the relevant empirical data? Unsubstantiated assertion might work for lawyers who hope that the opposing counsel will miss the errors of logic and fact, but here we expect a basic level of explained analysis and due diligence in addressing all germane variables.

Thank you for worrying about how others perceive me.

Although it is unnecessary, as I do not care if you (or others) think I am sociopathic.

If you choose to worry about the weather, that is your choice.

I say – enjoy worrying (since it seems to make you happy)!

Relax – don’t worry.

Another gauche declaration from the master of such.

Oh but there is an element of truth because the fifth major Atlantic hurricane this year is expending itself out at sea so no worries ………….. except for those already lashed by Harvey, Irma, Jose and Maria.

After nudging ever closer to Category 3 strength for almost a day, Hurricane Lee finally made the cut on Wednesday morning. Lee’s top sustained winds were 115 mph at 11 am EDT, making it a low-end Cat 3 storm. Lee is this year’s fifth major hurricane in the Atlantic, after Harvey, Irma, Jose, and Maria. Those four predecessors all hit Category 4 or 5 strength, and all of them but Jose proved to be devastating, multi-billion-dollar storms. Fortunately, Lee is flexing its muscle far from land in the central North Atlantic, close to 500 miles east-southeast of Bermuda.

Source.

And it looks like we could have our collars felt here in the UK this weekend as the remnants of Lee, then Maria and maybe a third storm brewing up off the coast of Canada roll in. Should we brace ourselves for a repeat of the 2013-2014 season?

Give up your myopia Rick it makes you look bad. Get a global perspective of the effects that are in train due to human activities and the deleterious effects upon millions this is already having and which will get worse.

Study Tony Juniper’s book What’s Really Happening To Our Planet? which is sort of an update on the earlier excellent book by James Bruges ‘The Little Earth Book’ which is still worth a read.

Your insouciance about the suffering and fate of millions makes you look sociopathic and studying those two books may work a cure.

Relax – don’t worry.

Another gauche declaration from the master of such.

Oh but there is an element of truth because the fifth major Atlantic hurricane this year is expending itself out at sea so no worries ………….. except for those already lashed by Harvey, Irma, Jose and Maria.

After nudging ever closer to Category 3 strength for almost a day, Hurricane Lee finally made the cut on Wednesday morning. Lee’s top sustained winds were 115 mph at 11 am EDT, making it a low-end Cat 3 storm. Lee is this year’s fifth major hurricane in the Atlantic, after Harvey, Irma, Jose, and Maria. Those four predecessors all hit Category 4 or 5 strength, and all of them but Jose proved to be devastating, multi-billion-dollar storms. Fortunately, Lee is flexing its muscle far from land in the central North Atlantic, close to 500 miles east-southeast of Bermuda.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/maria-pulling-away-north-carolina-lee-major-hurricane“>Source.

And it looks like we could have our collars felt here in the UK this weekend as the remnants of Lee, then Maria and maybe a third storm brewing up off the coast of Canada roll in. Should we brace ourselves for a repeat of the 2013-2014 season?

Give up your myopia Rick it makes you look bad. Get a global perspective of the effects that are in train due to human activities and the deleterious effects upon millions this is already having and which will get worse.

Study Tony Juniper’s book What’s Really Happening To Our Planet? which is sort of an update on the earlier excellent book by James Bruges ‘The Little Earth Book’ which is still worth a read.

Your insouciance about the suffering and fate of millions makes you look sociopathic and studying those two books may work a cure.

About 98% of that is totally natural…

There’s also the issue of your straw man.

The amount of sea level rise following the last glacial maximum through to the Holocene maximum is largely irrelevant to modern human society. Our civilisation’s development has almost entirely occurred within the last 7 millennia, during which time the global mean sea levels has been effectively at plateau. Much of our infrastructure is perched at the ocean’s edge for this reason, and it is this disproportionate present of human infrastructure along coastlines that makes sea level rise such an issue.

So it doesn’t matter how many dozens of metres the seas rose several millennia ago – what’s important is that much of our developed infrastructure is within metres of the current sea level, and we’ve put enough CO₂ into the atmosphere to cause warming that will raise that sea level by metres over the next few centuries.

Your penchant for using fallacious lawyer logic to paint over the facts won’t change the implacable unfolding import of what we’re doing to the planet.

About 98% of that is totally natural (all but at most 22 cm per Bernard).

Show your calculations.

You’re excluding the impact of pre-Industrial Revolution, human-caused warming, and you’re ignoring the sea level rise already that is committed to as a result of the significant thermal inertia resulting from the high heat capacity of water, but that has yet to manifest.

I stand by my assertion. The net amount of sea level rise resulting from human carbon emissions since the Holocene maximum is probably around 45 cm, or 0.5 metre to the nearest significant figure, and given the inescapable commitment to further sea level rise even with today’s atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, that 0.5 m SRL is a conservative estimate.

If you disagree, use actual data to refute me.

Bernard J #11 says “Instead, last year’s global mean temperature was about 1 K above the 1961-1990 baseline . . .”

I don’t think that is correct.

Using your own numbers (and Marcott 2013) we are 0.6C above the 1961-1990 baseline. The Marcott 2013 chart shows we started from -0.4C at the little ice age and rose 1C to 0.6C above zero (the baseline).

So as you said, according to Marcott 2013, we are now 0.3C above the mean global temperature of about 7000 years ago.

We’re both not correct, actually, but you more so than me. And in my defense I was typing at 2:00 am after already losing text once to a Firefox crash*, so I didn’t make clear in my second attempt my comment about warming over the last half century.

I’d originally made reference to the fact that Marcott et al use HadCRU as a reference baseline for their work, but that Berkeley Earth is probably the best construction of temperature change over the modern period. Berkeley Earth put warming from the 1951-1980 baseline through to 2016 at 0.94 K, which is the basis for my original comment that last year’s global mean temperature was about 1 K above the baseline. I definitely screwed up with not retyping my original comparison of HadCRU and BE (mea culpa), which orphaned to the HadCRU baseline, but that doesn’t substantively change the actual numbers.

Which are:

1) Prior to the Industrial Revolution, mean global temperature had dropped by about 0.7 K

2) From 1000 Ad to 1750 AD global temperature was dropping at a rate of approximately 0.8 K per millennium. On that trajectory the planet would be expected to have cooled ~ 0.2 K since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, although it’s entirely plausible that forcing would have diminished to that of the background rate for the the last 7 millennia, which would still result in cooling since the commencement of the Industrial Revolution. Analysis of all forcings gives no indication that significant ‘natural’ net warming would be expected over the last two and a half centuries.

3) Pre-IR human carbon emissions caused about 1.0 K of net warming, at central estimate.

4) Berkeley Earth indicates that last year’s global temperature was about 1 K (0.94 to two significant figures) over the BE 1951-1980 baseline, and 1.29 K higher compared to the 1850-1900 baseline (which will still be higher than the expected global temperature sans Industrial Revolution.

5) Human-caused planetary warming amounts to a little over 2.0 K according to Ruddiman et al* in 2014 (see especially the box in figure 3), and given the two record warm years since then, this is a conservative and now outdated estimate. Temperature analyses separate to Ruddiman’s give a similar estimate.

These are the numbers that matter, RickA, and not your mendacious smoke and mirrors tripe intended to gull an unsuspecting audience into thinking that the human impact is somehow just a fraction of a degree of warming.

Given that you seem to be refractory to understanding the literature, you should start here:

*Does pre-industrial warming double the anthropogenic total?

According to the early anthropogenic hypothesis, land clearing and agriculture caused emissions of greenhouse gases to begin to alter climate as early as 7000 years ago (Ruddiman, 2003). Climate-model simulations based on the CO2 and CH4 concentrations proposed in the hypothesis suggest that humans caused a global mean warming of 0.9 to 1.5°C before the start of the industrial era. Additional pre-industrial effects on land surface reflectance (changes in albedo resulting from forest clearance) may have cooled climate enough to cancel 0.2 to 0.3°C of this warming effect, leaving a net early anthropogenic warming contribution of between 0.7°C and 1.2°C. This proposed early anthropogenic warming is comparable with, and likely larger than, the measured 0.85°C warming during the last 150 years. If the simulations based on the early anthropogenic hypothesis are correct, total anthropogenic warming has been twice or more the industrial amount registered to date.

I am right.

It is warmer than it was 20000 years ago.

The ocean has risen 120 meters over the last 20,000 years.

About 98% of that is totally natural (all but at most 22 cm per Bernard).

Relax – don’t worry.

http://www.drmichaeljoyner.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/global-life-exp.jpg