Some of The questions are:
1. Is the earth/atmosphere ocean heating? I think there is evidence for this.
2. Is man responsible for it, and by how much? I think you feel you have the answer for that. (yes and 100%).
3. If 2 is true, what would the consequences be for mankind? I think this is even more open than 2.
4. If 2 is true, what can we and/or should we do about it? This is political question. This also depends on the certainty of 2 and even 1.
5. If 2 is true is it good, bad, or something else? This depends on 3 and the certainty of 3,2,1.
_———-
1. Yes. We have long-running records of the temperature on the land, and the sea.
The temperatures are rising in line with Exxon’s predictions of 1982, and the US EPA’s predictions of 1983. We also know that once you stop adding extra heat-trapping gasses to the air, the temperature rises keep going for a while longer.
2. The mechanism is:
CO2 in the air traps heat.
More CO2 traps more heat.
The more extra heat you trap, the hotter things get.
(And then extra vicious circles start to come into play, and almost all of them trap even more heat).
Man has added an extra 50% CO2 to the air, and an extra 100% methane. (And some other heat-trapping gasses, too).
Approximately 99% of the extra CO2 has been put there by Man. About three-quarters of it from burning fossil fuel.
3. The consequences are determined by three main things: how much more heat-trapping gas will we pump into the air, and how quickly? And how many of the other vicious circles will kick in, when?
Consequences so far: “sunny day” flooding has tripled in Florida, becoming more widespread, deeper and more frequent. This is happening along the entire Eastern Seaboard, albeit not as severe an increase; US wildfire season is now 40% longer; storm surges are overwhelming sea defences, from Louisiana to Manhattan; the Thames Flood Barrier originally was deployed once every few years, and now is deployed up to 59 times a year; Houston received two “1 in 500″ years storms within 3 years; crops in 9 states and 14,000,000 people were flooded by the mid-West storms this summer. The North Pole is now 3degC warmer than 50 years ago, causing Permafrost to melt, and leading to 95degF in the high Arctic.
The consequences will be increasing frequency of once-rare problems.
4. Given that 1, it is certain, and 2, is 99% due to us
a) stop making the problem worse. (The lead G20 nation on this plans to stop making things worse by 2050.)
b) In the meantime, slow down how fast we are making things worse. (The lead G20 nation has dropped its emissions by 40% since 1990).
c) Reverse the emissions. (Long term)
d) Adapt coastal cities for higher high tides and higher storm surges. (6’6″ / 2m in the next 80 years is distinctly possible. Another 10” is the bare minimum, and it is highly unlikely to be this low.
e) Cut down on natural gas for heating and cooking. Cut down on gasoline and diesel for transport. Eliminate fossil fuel use for electricity generation. Minimise air travel until it can be made carbon neutral.
5. Given it is happening, and is due almost entirely to us, and the current effects are severe, and they are going to get worse… It is definitely bad.

Because reality doesn’t really let him win.

Sure, “he’s a comic writer”, but he’s personally invested in this so it really doesn’t work like that. You can’t “go comedian” when you’re evidently deadly serious about something.

‘Pillock’ is a fine word, but IIRC, not really in the American English lexicon?

Common parlance in the RN.

Great points on climate models and sensitivity, as well as pointing at palaeoclimatology from BBD, Greg etc. I do grasp all this but useful for debating elsewhere so bookmarked.

And yes Gavin rocks on this stuff. Love his comment replies at Real Climate – so instructional.

But I never demanded a link, you lying arsehole.

I assume you know you’re lying, but just don’t like it being pointed out.