Comments on: How Will The Swing States Swing? https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/11/01/how-will-the-swing-states-swing/ Thu, 03 Nov 2016 19:14:49 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.4.8 By: Greg Laden https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/11/01/how-will-the-swing-states-swing/#comment-465923 Thu, 03 Nov 2016 19:14:49 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=23218#comment-465923 NEW ANALYSIS:

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2016/11/03/the-electoral-college-map-five-days-out-most-likely-trump-scenario-is-a-tie/

]]> By: zebra https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/11/01/how-will-the-swing-states-swing/#comment-465922 Thu, 03 Nov 2016 11:31:03 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=23218#comment-465922 “The Election Polls That Matter”

Interesting NYT article by Jim Messina.

]]> By: craig thomas https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/11/01/how-will-the-swing-states-swing/#comment-465921 Thu, 03 Nov 2016 06:57:05 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=23218#comment-465921 “Which suggests that North Carolina could/should have their electoral votes reduced, as they are guilty of “state sponsored voter suppression”.”

This offence against democracy happened quite blatantly in Florida several presidentials ago, and nothing was done about it.

]]> By: Greg Laden https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/11/01/how-will-the-swing-states-swing/#comment-465920 Thu, 03 Nov 2016 00:39:52 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=23218#comment-465920 Eric, thanks for the analysis.

]]> By: tadaaa https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/11/01/how-will-the-swing-states-swing/#comment-465919 Wed, 02 Nov 2016 22:40:35 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=23218#comment-465919 From my anecdotal vex pop evidence IF it goes they way of Brexit in the swing states

It will be because of the people who have never/or don’t usually vote

The are difficult to track for the pollsters / strategists

]]> By: Eric Lund https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/11/01/how-will-the-swing-states-swing/#comment-465918 Wed, 02 Nov 2016 13:46:41 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=23218#comment-465918

New Hampshire probably is not on the table any more as an unreliable state, or a swing state. Does anyone know if this has anything to do with Massachusetts and New Hampshire cross border commuting and car insurance? Eric?

I don’t think commuter spillover from Massachusetts is the big factor, because the parts of New Hampshire those commuters live in, particularly the bedroom towns of inland Rockingham County, are some of the reddest towns in the state. More likely, it’s that rural areas north and west of Concord resemble Vermont: a relatively well-educated population that may have once been Republican but aren’t into the kinds of things the Religious Right wants.

The 2nd congressional district in New Hampshire, which covers the western part of the state, is now considered a safe Democratic seat. The 1st district, covering the eastern part of the state (including most of the aforementioned Rockingham County), has flipped in four of the last five elections, and this year the Democrats are hoping to make it five out of six.

Incidentally, if both Hassan (NH-SEN) and Shea-Porter (NH-01) win, New Hampshire will have an all-Democratic Congressional delegation for the first time since at least the Civil War. It will also be an all-female delegation: Kuster (NH-02) and Shaheen (senior senator, reelected in 2014) are also women. As recently as ten years ago, it was all-Republican and all-male.

]]> By: Greg Laden https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/11/01/how-will-the-swing-states-swing/#comment-465917 Tue, 01 Nov 2016 17:21:27 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=23218#comment-465917 Stock up on your popcorn now!

]]> By: Brainstorms https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/11/01/how-will-the-swing-states-swing/#comment-465916 Tue, 01 Nov 2016 15:31:19 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=23218#comment-465916 Section 2 of the Fourteenth Amendment allows for a state’s representation in the House of Representatives to be reduced if that state unconstitutionally denies people the right to vote. The reduction is in keeping with the proportion of people denied a vote.

This amendment refers to voting “at any election for the choice of electors for President and Vice President of the United States.”

Which suggests that North Carolina could/should have their electoral votes reduced, as they are guilty of “state sponsored voter suppression”.

]]> By: skeptictmac57 https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/11/01/how-will-the-swing-states-swing/#comment-465915 Tue, 01 Nov 2016 15:25:21 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=23218#comment-465915 “Even though my model is very iffy about North Carolina, it does give it to Clinton by a very small margin, and polls suggest that North Carolina is firmly Clinton.”

Maybe not Greg: http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/10/31/NAACP-alleges-voter-suppression-in-three-North-Carolina-counties/9501477933847/

Seems like every dirty trick in the book is being dusted off for this election.

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