You will notice that my numbers are higher than the major outlets for both candidates. I guess I have more certainty in my model than they do.

Part of this is because your map has only one shade each of blue and red. Most of these other maps have more colors depending how strongly each state tips toward one or the other candidates. 538’s map has, IIRC, six shades each of blue and red/pink. Most of the maps I have seen use dark/medium/light blue to indicate “strongly Dem”, “likely Dem”, and “leans Dem”, respectively, with red/coral/pink for the equivalent categories on the Republican side. In practice, I tend to view the light blue and pink states (as well as the tossups, obviously) as potentially flippable, and anything “likely” or “strongly” to be definitely for that side (barring a black swan news development).

For instance, Sam Wang’s current map has states totaling 254 EVs as “strongly Dem”. Compared to your map, he gives Hillary NH and PA, but NV is rated a tossup, and CO and WI are only rated “likely Dem”. He also rates NC as “likely Dem”, for a total of 34 EVs in that category, or 288 in the two categories combined. On the other side, there are 160 EVs shown as “strongly Rep” (he considers AK to be only “likely Rep” and NE-02 to be “leans Rep”, but agrees with the rest of your map). But there are 21 more in “likely Rep” states (AK and OH), so Trump really has a base of 181 EVs. Wang also has 29 EVs as “leans Dem” (FL), 12 as tossups (IA and NV), and 28 as “leans Rep” (AZ, GA, and NE-02).

Wang’s map is based entirely on polls. He uses medians, so his map is less susceptible to outliers, but if the race is actually in flux his maps will tend to lag.

The Republican Party: It’s like giving syphilis to your children.

There are GOP mechanics who learned their trade on that machine, worked their entire careers on it, then passed their tools on to their sons and nephews when they retired or died.

This worried Aussie looking on from across the pacific ocean but knowing how much impact the US elections have is most appreciative of it. Cheers!

Please Americans, choose wisely and vote for Clinton.