This is very different from the presidential race. For the Senate, we have more or less one population that is being roughly and not very accurately estimated, as opposed to fifty. The Senate is not going to be too different this year than an other year: Unknown until it happens. A discussion of what might happen mainly serves to prime us all for election night.

Are those my only two choices?

Anyway, nether regions.

Isn’t this the sort of thing math could be useful for?

or are you pulling them out of your nether regions?

No, Eric; Republican predictions are pulled out of one’s nether regions.

Nevada is in the west, they count up their votes slow in that state

’cause all their fast counters work for the casinos.

And the fastest ones are busy counting cards.

I agree that Illinois, Indiana, and Wisconsin are very likely Dem pickups, Pennsylvania is a tossup, and Arizona is a longshot. But beyond that that, the polling I have seen disagrees with your predictions. In Nevada, Cortez Masto has opened up a lead on Heck, and that one looks like a better chance to stay blue than for any of Missouri, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. Meanwhile, polling in New Hampshire has been oscillating, but recently Hassan has opened a lead over Ayotte, so that one is leaning toward a pickup.

In North Carolina, Burr has a small (within the MOE) lead over Ross, but there is another factor: Gov. McCrory is up for reelection this year, and I am hearing that lots of voters, even some who normally vote Republican, hate him. Whether they will split their ticket, or take out their frustrations against other Republicans (many of these people also don’t like what the state legislature is doing, but the state legislature is so heavily gerrymandered that it will almost certainly stay Republican, possibly with a veto-proof margin).

Rubio’s lead in Florida is about the same as Blunt’s in Missouri. But Rubio has been losing ground this month, and Florida is much more likely than Missouri to go blue at the Presidential level. I’d still rate Florida as leaning Republican, but it is still potentially flippable. I’d be surprised to see Missouri flip unless it’s an across-the-board Republican rout.