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	Comments on: The real meaning of Trump&#8217;s Al Smith fiasco	</title>
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	<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/10/21/the-real-meaning-of-trumps-al-smith-fiasco/</link>
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	<lastBuildDate>Tue, 13 Dec 2016 23:33:05 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>
		By: Wow		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/10/21/the-real-meaning-of-trumps-al-smith-fiasco/#comment-465604</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Wow]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 13 Dec 2016 23:33:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=23136#comment-465604</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[@Mr G.J.A.M. Bogaers

You&#039;re begging the question that the consensus IS false.
AND that it&#039;s in the 97%.

Two beggings.

But how about the echo chamber of WUWT? They have a consensus that AGW is a scam, but no consensus on what proves it.

I also query how this false consensus is known. Is it generally agreed by psychologists that it exists? Then how is it not a false consensus? Does that metric apply in the IPCC and every national scientific body around the world?

And Gerritt pointed out that abuse seems to be workable. See also Brexit.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@Mr G.J.A.M. Bogaers</p>
<p>You&#8217;re begging the question that the consensus IS false.<br />
AND that it&#8217;s in the 97%.</p>
<p>Two beggings.</p>
<p>But how about the echo chamber of WUWT? They have a consensus that AGW is a scam, but no consensus on what proves it.</p>
<p>I also query how this false consensus is known. Is it generally agreed by psychologists that it exists? Then how is it not a false consensus? Does that metric apply in the IPCC and every national scientific body around the world?</p>
<p>And Gerritt pointed out that abuse seems to be workable. See also Brexit.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Gerrit Bogaers		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/10/21/the-real-meaning-of-trumps-al-smith-fiasco/#comment-465603</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gerrit Bogaers]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 13 Dec 2016 23:19:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=23136#comment-465603</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Sad to say, but Trump got away, with it. What next? Laren NH, Wednesday 14th. December 2016, Dutch time, 0.18 h. AM.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Sad to say, but Trump got away, with it. What next? Laren NH, Wednesday 14th. December 2016, Dutch time, 0.18 h. AM.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Mr G.J.A.M. Bogaers		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/10/21/the-real-meaning-of-trumps-al-smith-fiasco/#comment-465602</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mr G.J.A.M. Bogaers]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 24 Oct 2016 08:22:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=23136#comment-465602</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[In today&#039;s Gooi- en Eemlander one of our well known Dutch psychologists, René Diekstra, warned for the phenomenon of &#039;false consensus&#039;. In short, the wrong assumption that everyone else will agree with our own sympathy, preferences and choices of life. This implies negligence of the opposite truth as well as carelessness in for instance promoting people referenda to get a public support of a wish expressed by politicians who proclaim a referendum. See the carelessly held referenda about Brexit in Great Britain and about FARC in Colombia. The assumed consensus of the majority appeared not tort exist. The same threat is present in the false assumption that the majority of USA voters &#039;undoubtedly&#039; will vote for Mrs. Clinton for President by saying that Mr Trump is clearly an ignorant only supported by ignorant people.
Mr Diekstra warns for this belittling approach of voters. It can lead to the opposite, Mr Trump voted as President by people who - rightfully so - don&#039;t like to be characterized as ignorant people and or dumb people. Mr Diekstra concludes, the thought that false consensus will decide on November 8 who will be empowered pressing the nuclear button is unbearable. It&#039;s a fair warning for all of us who walk in a pink cloud.  Laren NH, Monday 24 October 2016, 10:22 AM Dutch time.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In today&#8217;s Gooi- en Eemlander one of our well known Dutch psychologists, René Diekstra, warned for the phenomenon of &#8216;false consensus&#8217;. In short, the wrong assumption that everyone else will agree with our own sympathy, preferences and choices of life. This implies negligence of the opposite truth as well as carelessness in for instance promoting people referenda to get a public support of a wish expressed by politicians who proclaim a referendum. See the carelessly held referenda about Brexit in Great Britain and about FARC in Colombia. The assumed consensus of the majority appeared not tort exist. The same threat is present in the false assumption that the majority of USA voters &#8216;undoubtedly&#8217; will vote for Mrs. Clinton for President by saying that Mr Trump is clearly an ignorant only supported by ignorant people.<br />
Mr Diekstra warns for this belittling approach of voters. It can lead to the opposite, Mr Trump voted as President by people who &#8211; rightfully so &#8211; don&#8217;t like to be characterized as ignorant people and or dumb people. Mr Diekstra concludes, the thought that false consensus will decide on November 8 who will be empowered pressing the nuclear button is unbearable. It&#8217;s a fair warning for all of us who walk in a pink cloud.  Laren NH, Monday 24 October 2016, 10:22 AM Dutch time.</p>
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		<title>
		By: dean		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/10/21/the-real-meaning-of-trumps-al-smith-fiasco/#comment-465601</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[dean]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 23 Oct 2016 22:19:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=23136#comment-465601</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[The story about Cadillac being the first company to sell to African Americans is distorted at best, and false at worst. 

Prior to the Depression Cadillac did not allow blacks into their showrooms at all, and did not allow sales to be made to them. 
From the Forbes article (link at end) :
&quot;As Cadillac was losing massive amounts of money in the Depression there was serious talk of eliminating the division. The story is that at one meeting a German man, an executive in charge of Cadillac service nationwide, named Nicholas Dreystadt, asked to speak. He said that he had noticed many service departments consisted of members of the nation’s tiny African-American elite: the boxers, singers, doctors and lawyers who earned large incomes service departments consisted of members of the nation’s tiny African-American elite: the boxers, singers, doctors and lawyers who earned large incomes despite the flourishing Jim Crow atmosphere of the 1930s. Most status symbols were not available to these people. They couldn’t live in fancy neighborhoods or patronize fancy nightclubs. But getting around Cadillac’s policy of refusing to sell was easy: They just paid white men to front for them. Dreystadt urged the executive committee to go after this market. Why should a bunch of white front men get several hundred dollars each when that profit could flow to General Motors? The board bought his reasoning, and in 1934 Cadillac sales increased by 70%, and the division actually broke even. In June of 1934 Nick Dreystadt was made head of the Cadillac Division.&quot;

I don&#039;t know whether G&#039;s comment refers to Cadillac after this shift in their business practice or not. If it does, his comments about being first might be correct. If it tries to imply Cadillac was selling to African Americans earlier than that, it simply isn&#039;t true.

http://www.forbes.com/2009/04/30/1930s-auto-industry-business-cadillac.html]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The story about Cadillac being the first company to sell to African Americans is distorted at best, and false at worst. </p>
<p>Prior to the Depression Cadillac did not allow blacks into their showrooms at all, and did not allow sales to be made to them.<br />
From the Forbes article (link at end) :<br />
&#8220;As Cadillac was losing massive amounts of money in the Depression there was serious talk of eliminating the division. The story is that at one meeting a German man, an executive in charge of Cadillac service nationwide, named Nicholas Dreystadt, asked to speak. He said that he had noticed many service departments consisted of members of the nation’s tiny African-American elite: the boxers, singers, doctors and lawyers who earned large incomes service departments consisted of members of the nation’s tiny African-American elite: the boxers, singers, doctors and lawyers who earned large incomes despite the flourishing Jim Crow atmosphere of the 1930s. Most status symbols were not available to these people. They couldn’t live in fancy neighborhoods or patronize fancy nightclubs. But getting around Cadillac’s policy of refusing to sell was easy: They just paid white men to front for them. Dreystadt urged the executive committee to go after this market. Why should a bunch of white front men get several hundred dollars each when that profit could flow to General Motors? The board bought his reasoning, and in 1934 Cadillac sales increased by 70%, and the division actually broke even. In June of 1934 Nick Dreystadt was made head of the Cadillac Division.&#8221;</p>
<p>I don&#8217;t know whether G&#8217;s comment refers to Cadillac after this shift in their business practice or not. If it does, his comments about being first might be correct. If it tries to imply Cadillac was selling to African Americans earlier than that, it simply isn&#8217;t true.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.forbes.com/2009/04/30/1930s-auto-industry-business-cadillac.html" rel="nofollow ugc">http://www.forbes.com/2009/04/30/1930s-auto-industry-business-cadillac.html</a></p>
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		<title>
		By: Obstreperous Applesauce		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/10/21/the-real-meaning-of-trumps-al-smith-fiasco/#comment-465600</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Obstreperous Applesauce]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 23 Oct 2016 19:49:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=23136#comment-465600</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Speaking of narrative, of the pernicious kind:
http://scienceblogs.com/evolutionblog/2016/09/20/sully-is-fiction/

I suspect these narratives are more real than reality for a lot of people, who like hermit crabs pick them up and inhabit them for a protective shell of armor.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Speaking of narrative, of the pernicious kind:<br />
<a href="http://scienceblogs.com/evolutionblog/2016/09/20/sully-is-fiction/" rel="nofollow ugc">http://scienceblogs.com/evolutionblog/2016/09/20/sully-is-fiction/</a></p>
<p>I suspect these narratives are more real than reality for a lot of people, who like hermit crabs pick them up and inhabit them for a protective shell of armor.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Brainstorms		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/10/21/the-real-meaning-of-trumps-al-smith-fiasco/#comment-465599</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Brainstorms]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 23 Oct 2016 14:42:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=23136#comment-465599</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[There&#039;s also the effective narrative of &quot;if you don&#039;t do this / follow this ideology, then these bad things will happen to you / your kids / your job / your society&quot;, followed by things such as &quot;this group of people are the cause and they must be defeated or they will take over&quot;, followed by &quot;we have the solution and the ability to save you and your children, so give us your power and your money and obey our ideology&quot;.

Those who study 1930&#039;s Germany may find that narrative familiar. The Conservatives in the US certainly have studied it, and copied it, and it&#039;s been working for them, too. Trump is now using it to some of its most deplorable ends.

As with the economic disaster of the &quot;Roaring Twenties&quot;, those who refuse to learn from history are doomed to repeat it. Interestingly, these repetitions seem to have ~75 year periods.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There&#8217;s also the effective narrative of &#8220;if you don&#8217;t do this / follow this ideology, then these bad things will happen to you / your kids / your job / your society&#8221;, followed by things such as &#8220;this group of people are the cause and they must be defeated or they will take over&#8221;, followed by &#8220;we have the solution and the ability to save you and your children, so give us your power and your money and obey our ideology&#8221;.</p>
<p>Those who study 1930&#8217;s Germany may find that narrative familiar. The Conservatives in the US certainly have studied it, and copied it, and it&#8217;s been working for them, too. Trump is now using it to some of its most deplorable ends.</p>
<p>As with the economic disaster of the &#8220;Roaring Twenties&#8221;, those who refuse to learn from history are doomed to repeat it. Interestingly, these repetitions seem to have ~75 year periods.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Greg Laden		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/10/21/the-real-meaning-of-trumps-al-smith-fiasco/#comment-465598</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Greg Laden]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 23 Oct 2016 11:10:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=23136#comment-465598</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[G, I didn&#039;t know that about the early caddy sales.  

So far I can only think of emotional narratives that won&#039;e appeal ... :)]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>G, I didn&#8217;t know that about the early caddy sales.  </p>
<p>So far I can only think of emotional narratives that won&#8217;e appeal &#8230; 🙂</p>
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		<title>
		By: G		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/10/21/the-real-meaning-of-trumps-al-smith-fiasco/#comment-465597</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[G]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 23 Oct 2016 06:34:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=23136#comment-465597</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Greg, two things: 

1)  Cadillac, the automobile marque, was well-known for it&#039;s non-racist sales policy in the early to mid 20th century.  Where other high-end brands refused to offer new car loans to black folks, Cadillac offered them to anyone with sound financials, regardless of race.  This earned brand loyalty with middle class and well-to-do black families, so it was also a sound business decision, but in any case Cadillac was a half century or more ahead of its time.

2)  Trump TV will find its niche: angry folks with no other outlet, mostly in the white working class.  That angry mood that Trump is selling, will find many eager buyers.  The lesson is that we can&#039;t ignore aggrieved members of the white working class, and we have to reach out to them as with any other constituency.  I&#039;m willing to bet that if we do that, we can also help them overcome racism and other bad attitudes that are typically associated with this constituency.  

OK, three things;-)

3)  Politics and campaigns work on the basis of emotional narratives, as does regular advertising and cinema.  An emotional narrative tells a story about a character&#039;s feelings: first, they felt X, then they felt Y, then they did something (supported a candidate, bought a product, overcame an obstacle, etc.) and were rewarded by feeling Z.  People join up, or buy things, when they are offered an emotional narrative that meets them where they are and gives them something to look forward to if they act on the message.  We need to take that into account in the way we reach voters.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Greg, two things: </p>
<p>1)  Cadillac, the automobile marque, was well-known for it&#8217;s non-racist sales policy in the early to mid 20th century.  Where other high-end brands refused to offer new car loans to black folks, Cadillac offered them to anyone with sound financials, regardless of race.  This earned brand loyalty with middle class and well-to-do black families, so it was also a sound business decision, but in any case Cadillac was a half century or more ahead of its time.</p>
<p>2)  Trump TV will find its niche: angry folks with no other outlet, mostly in the white working class.  That angry mood that Trump is selling, will find many eager buyers.  The lesson is that we can&#8217;t ignore aggrieved members of the white working class, and we have to reach out to them as with any other constituency.  I&#8217;m willing to bet that if we do that, we can also help them overcome racism and other bad attitudes that are typically associated with this constituency.  </p>
<p>OK, three things;-)</p>
<p>3)  Politics and campaigns work on the basis of emotional narratives, as does regular advertising and cinema.  An emotional narrative tells a story about a character&#8217;s feelings: first, they felt X, then they felt Y, then they did something (supported a candidate, bought a product, overcame an obstacle, etc.) and were rewarded by feeling Z.  People join up, or buy things, when they are offered an emotional narrative that meets them where they are and gives them something to look forward to if they act on the message.  We need to take that into account in the way we reach voters.</p>
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		<title>
		By: dean		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/10/21/the-real-meaning-of-trumps-al-smith-fiasco/#comment-465596</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[dean]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 22 Oct 2016 19:23:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=23136#comment-465596</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[I think the canal was built in the late 1800s as an aid to moving logs. I don&#039;t know it there was already a channel there.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I think the canal was built in the late 1800s as an aid to moving logs. I don&#8217;t know it there was already a channel there.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Greg Laden		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/10/21/the-real-meaning-of-trumps-al-smith-fiasco/#comment-465595</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Greg Laden]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 22 Oct 2016 18:39:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=23136#comment-465595</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[(Sorry, left out an important detail: The shallower lake would have it&#039;s charging from groundwater slow down sooner than the larger lake, or perhaps they have different inlets, thus the later in winter or early spring reversal of flow)]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>(Sorry, left out an important detail: The shallower lake would have it&#8217;s charging from groundwater slow down sooner than the larger lake, or perhaps they have different inlets, thus the later in winter or early spring reversal of flow)</p>
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