I note it wasn’t answered, though, by anyone.

Odd that, eh?

No, it was let down by the elderly who turned out in their droves to vote on a mandate of “I don’t like today, it MUST be europe’s fault, so lets leave!”.

If nobody had voted for exiting, it wouldn’t have mattered how many young had not bothered (and the “not bothered” was less than a third, not all of whom actually cared, since there wasn’t any information to make an actual damn decision on).

If you do, you MUST allow a “None of the above” which puts government “on hold” and new candidates found to vote for if the “None of the above” vote wins the majority.

And you will probably need some method for coalition governments, specifically to defuse this false dichotomy of two parties.

I am very proud of everyone for looking so closely at the data and charts and commenting, instead of just taking a graph face value. But it is a but funny that the reason people are looking so closely is that their expectations are not being met.

I’ll have a full on analysis as soon as the first new set of polls come out, I expect on Monday and/or Tuesday, reflecting 100% post debate. The fact remains that just as the news reporters were rushing to declare a huge gap, frequently referred to as a “double digit lead,” that was growing and would continue to grow until election day, the gap was that widened in the immediate wake of the bus tapes narrowed at least a bit and has not been widening. And, all these charts make the differences look huge, but if you put in margin of error … Yes, Gary, don’t relax! Too much is at stake.

I’m still pretty much sticking with this set of predictions:

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2016/10/16/the-current-trump-clinton-electoral-prediction/

But as I said, I’ll have a new set out Mon or Tue.

Steve, you can look at the chart and see the points and the line. Nothing is being hidden here, this is not a science denialist tactic.

It really is optionally done this way.

What I’m seeing is just the opposite – an extension of the fight into otherwise secure red states. I’m seeing the effective use of surrogates, and I expect that Clinton’s performance in the last debate will soon give her another little bump.

Early voting seems to indicate a Democratic advantage, and the turnout capabilities of the two campaigns favor the Democrats. In 2012 Obama did better than the polls predicted, and I believe that that will be the case this time too. And this time the Democrats will probably have the added benefit of reduced Republican turnout.

Meanwhile the prospect for a Democratic Senate majority looks better than ever.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/senate-update-the-last-week-has-been-very-kind-to-democrats-hopes-for-a-majority/

The Princeton Election Consortium gives the Democrats a 79% chance of control.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-rigging-idUSKCN12L2O2