Comments on: Who will win the presidential race?

By: Brainstorms

Brainstorms — Thu, 13 Oct 2016 16:07:49 +0000

Depends on what the other end is wrapped around, I guess…

By: Greg Laden

Greg Laden — Thu, 13 Oct 2016 14:59:04 +0000

I still like “Tow the line”

By: cosmicomics

cosmicomics — Thu, 13 Oct 2016 10:01:00 +0000

#13
Understood, but which line? Trump is not a normal candidate and this is not a normal election. States like Georgia, Utah, and Arizona are in play. Some Republicans are so alienated by Trump that they’ll vote for Clinton or Johnson. Some, who normally do vote, won’t. Yes, some Republicans who’ve disavowed Trump will fall in line, but the words they’ve said in disavowing him, that he’s not qualified to be president, will persuade some voters not to. This election isn’t just quantitatively extraordinary, but qualitatively, and there isn’t just one line.

Apparently, the campaign has given up on reaching out to undecided voters and will instead focus its resources on mobilizing Trump’s limited group of supporters. This is further evidence of disarray and delusion because the Trump campaign has largely ignored the lessons of turnout and will not be able to do what’s necessary to make sure that Trump supporters get to the polls. (My belief is that Trump’s organizational deficiencies will more than make up for the effects of Republican voter suppression.)

Furthermore, as it’s now clear that Trump will lose, donors are more reluctant to use their money on him. And what was previously a trickle of negative stories that received scant coverage, has now become a stream of front page news.

For a Republican Party, whose policies and leaders have been rejected by its base, falling in line is no longer a simple alternative. It’s damned if I do, damned if I don’t.

By: Brainstorms

Brainstorms — Wed, 12 Oct 2016 16:48:12 +0000

He meant, 'They'll toe the line', right, Greg? :^)

By: cosmicomics

cosmicomics — Wed, 12 Oct 2016 09:56:40 +0000

#11
…don’t worry, they’ll fall in line…

Which line?

By: Greg Laden

Greg Laden — Wed, 12 Oct 2016 02:45:45 +0000

SteveP, don’t worry, they’ll fall in line and not do that either, by the end of the week.

By: SteveP

SteveP — Wed, 12 Oct 2016 00:51:53 +0000

One very interesting phenomenon in all of this; somebody has finally been able to break the religio-economic-nationalistic-narcissistic chains that have bound the typical Republican to their party’s authoritarian standard bearer. The horror of having an American version of Saddam Hussein using unlimited power to violate whomever he felt like has finally sunk in to at least a few Republican soccer moms and their spouses, and they are repulsed by it. The GOP has over the years always seemed to have appealed to something like an inner Narcissus drive in their flock, but that drive, which until now had been nearly completely impervious to reason or argument, now seems to be getting over-come by some sort of socio-biological drive to protect one’s family from predators.

So Republicans won’t change their behavior out of concern about climate change that can kill millions, but the words of a powerful tyrant hoping to abuse and exploit their daughters with impunity is something that at least a few can finally get their TV addled minds around. Interesting.

By: The Electoral Map: Clinton Vs. Trump – Greg Laden's Blog

The Electoral Map: Clinton Vs. Trump – Greg Laden's Blog — Tue, 11 Oct 2016 23:56:12 +0000

[…] uses the technique previously described. However, instead of using RCP averages for all polled states and then using extreme (non-tossup) […]

By: metzomagic

metzomagic — Tue, 11 Oct 2016 22:53:19 +0000

Needless to say, while *not* having a racist, misogynist f#ckwit like Trump as the POTUS is definitely a good thing for not only the U.S. but the world, Hills will still be ‘working’ with a Rethuglican majority in one or both houses, and be able to accomplish absolutely nothing of any worth.

And then two years from now, because she will have been able to accomplish nothing, there will be the usual
wingnut backlash and even *more* Rethuglican a’holes will be elected to both houses. Rinse and repeat, ain’t it amazing that America still manages to function? Well, at least on a superficial level.

By: metzomagic

metzomagic — Tue, 11 Oct 2016 22:40:54 +0000

It turns out that white people vary a lot across the country with how many per state are assholes. I think there is some variation among Hispanics as well, but African Americans are pretty consistent. So, here, I combined ethnicity with a “Romney Index” indicating how many people in a given state voted for Romney against Obama.

That paragraph alone is all kinds of brilliant, and sadly, just about sums up the current state of the electorate in America. +1 internets to our host.