there are already multiple electors saying they will not vote for the candidate they ostensibly represent. last i checked, one Dem in Washington will not vote for Clinton (he’s a Sanders dead-ender) and two GOP electors will not vote for Trump.

Per CBS radio network news, 25% of Republican leaders are not endorsing Trump: I’d consider that a large effect.

Polling shows an 8% spread between Clinton and Trump: that’s within your “small effect” boundary. Per extensive posts by knowledgeable activists on Daily Kos (progressive Democratic site), an 8% spread is also the boundary to the territory where the House as well as the Senate is in play.

Today’s latest Trump tweet-storm includes “finally the shackles are off!” and there are indications he is going to further sabotage House Republicans for not supporting him.

And lastly, your hypothesis about 4-day intervals between big news items was further supported by this one: Trump read at a speech, a purported Wikileaks email from or about Sid Blumenthal, conceding all the Republicans’ points about Benghazi.

However, that version of the email had a very specific error, that attributed to Blumenthal something that Blumenthal had quoted in from a Newsweek story. It was an error that was briefly posted on the website of Sputnik, a Russian news agency. The probability that someone on Trump’s campaign staff made the same error by random coincidence is small, therefore two hypotheses occur to me:

a) Both Sputnik and Trump’s staff member made the same error independently due to some aspect of the way the email was formatted when released by WIkileaks: therefore that Wikileaks may have deliberately used that formatting to give that impression.

b) Someone on Trump’s staff is taking their news items from various Russian sources including Sputnik. That “someone” is what you could call a mole, or at least someone who has Russian interests in mind to influence Trump. But they are acting independently based on their interest in promoting Russian views, rather than acting on specific orders from Russia. That is, “shared interests” rather than “overt conspiracy.”

I don’t consider it likely that there is an “overt conspiracy” going on there. However, it’s clear that there is a commonality of interest between Russian propaganda and Trump propaganda. And the distorted Blumenthal email makes that very clear.

I would argue that there’s sufficient “there” there for DOJ to start a FARA investigation: potential Foreign Agents Registration Act violation, which is a felony. We’ve already seen a potential FARA violation by former Trump campaign chief Manafort, so the likelihood is that he is not the only one.

Stay tuned…!

My understanding is that the House is expected to choose among candidates who have received at least one electoral vote. So a lot would depend on what the electors did. If they all chose to vote for the winning vice-presidential candidate, then that candidate would become President. It only really matters if the winning candidate dies before the electoral college votes, and his electors don’t agree on an alternative candidate. I don’t think the electors would be bound in that scenario.

If it goes to the house, they don’t have to justify anything. The fact that people widely believe that succession applies before the electors act (or, for that mater, that primaries are part of our national constitutionally prescribed system of election) shouldn’t play a role and likely wouldn’t.

I have been keeping journals for our sons since before they arrived (they are both adopted). The older boy has 22 years of journals so far, the younger boy 20. This election year’s events have been, are now, and will probably continue to be the second highest discussions (after September 11th).

Things get complicated if the Electoral College has yet to vote (sounds like the choice would probably go to the House) but if after that a president-elect dies then the veep-elect takes the office on January 20th. Details.

The interesting regions of the polls are the margins where they rise and fall. That’s where the action is.

(And so you know, I’m already depressed by all the Trump/Pence signs that have sprouted like poisonous mushrooms in my neighborhood– a lot of senility out there.)