When the 38 storm came through New England, the fishermen who lived and worked there had to learn a new word: “Hurricane.” Or so it is said. They were really rare up north then, much more common later.

Anyway, I think there is a way around this. There are many points that occasionally get hit with a hurricane that have excellent records going back very far. Like any given British colonial site (eg Bermuda). Looking at only those records, it should be possible to estimate change over time.

We’re also seeing hurricanes in places that rarely if ever saw hurricanes before. The Azores, already hit by Alex in January, are likely to take a hit from Gaston in the next day or two. There have been at least two hurricane watches for the Big Island of Hawaii, which saw a grand total of one landfalling tropical storm between 1950 and 2010. The Arabian Peninsula, which rarely if ever saw tropical cyclones before 2010, has had at least three since then (one in Oman and two in Yemen). Combine that with weird weather of other kinds happening in many parts of the globe, and it looks more and more like something is off.

Found here:
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016JD025116/full

(Instead, it just tracks bullshit across blogs.)

RickA: I had no idea global warming is assumed to have started in the 1970s. Huh.

First you have to understand (ha! I know that’s not going to happen, but for those looking on from the sidelines…) that a landfalling hurricane is a statistical maverick in a herd of hurricanes, which are in turn, statistically lousy subjects (lots of variation, not a large sample size). So it is probably better to look at tropical storms more generally. In the Atlantic, the average number of tropical storms since about 2000 has been abuot 15. In the period prior to about 1990, it was about 9-10. Huge increase.

ACE is not regarded as the best measure of total energy. There are a few different measures. Science deniers pick the one measure that shows a flat line and ignore all the other data. That is because they are bad people. Assholes. Like you, RickA, and See Noevo too. Stupid, nefarious, foolish, assholes.

Anyway, if you want to know more:

Read this: http://www.skepticalscience.com/grinsted-hurricane-stronger.html

Read this: http://www.skepticalscience.com/The-link-between-hurricanes-and-global-warming.html

Read this: http://www.skepticalscience.com/grinsted-hurricane-stronger.html

Watch this (a fairly conservative take): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9mKC49AUVUo

RickA, and See Noevo, we re not going to let what is essentially a public service post about a dangerous weather event to be your anti-science soap box, so don’t bother posting any more of your bullshit here. Find a different post.

Not according to ACE:

http://models.weatherbell.com/tropical.php

Do you have a cite for this claim?

P.S.
Greg, thanks for de-banning me, for the time being.

Yes, it is a little odd!

This is far beyond your tiny little mind to contemplate, See, as we know from past experience. But, for those looking on …

The total amount of energy that ends up in hurricanes globally is predicted to go up with global warming. It did. It is still going up.

The total number of hurricanes that ever exist in the Atlantic in a given year is a small percentage of the total number of hurricanes. The total number of those hurricanes that ever make landfall is very small. Locally, we actually do expect a lot of low activity years in the Atlantic because of the pecularities of that basin under global warming (increased Sahara dust, increased wind sheer) but there may end up being more there in the end, and there may end up being bigger hurricanes.

A storm like Sandy, which was a hurricane until it stopped for a snack and ate a giant no’easter and became a Superstorm, much bigger and more dangerous than a normal hurricane, may be more of a typical storm in the Atlantic in the future. The Perfect Storm may have been one of those as well, in a sense. That didn’t count as a land falling hurricane in some databases, because Sandy became Too Big And Powerful To Be A Hurricane (TBAPTBAH) just before landfall. Just.

What is really odd here is that you are cherry picking data in order to disrespect the victims of Sandy, and to make it look like global warming is not real.

Global is real. Hardly anyone any more thinks it is not. Shame on you.