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	Comments on: Beware Democratic Party Optimism	</title>
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		<title>
		By: cosmicomics		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/05/06/beware-democratic-party-optimism/#comment-469593</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[cosmicomics]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 11 May 2016 12:43:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=22475#comment-469593</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[#22

“But MSNBC&#039;s Steve Kornacki tweeted a more remarkable data point: Almost 4 in 10 Sanders voters plan to support Trump over Sanders.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/05/10/early-w-va-numbers-show-4-in-10-sanders-backers-prefer-trump-over-clinton-and-trump-over-sanders/?tid=pm_politics_pop_b 

The voting pattern in West Virginia seems to be something of an outlier.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#22</p>
<p>“But MSNBC&#8217;s Steve Kornacki tweeted a more remarkable data point: Almost 4 in 10 Sanders voters plan to support Trump over Sanders.”<br />
<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/05/10/early-w-va-numbers-show-4-in-10-sanders-backers-prefer-trump-over-clinton-and-trump-over-sanders/?tid=pm_politics_pop_b" rel="nofollow ugc">https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/05/10/early-w-va-numbers-show-4-in-10-sanders-backers-prefer-trump-over-clinton-and-trump-over-sanders/?tid=pm_politics_pop_b</a> </p>
<p>The voting pattern in West Virginia seems to be something of an outlier.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Donal		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/05/06/beware-democratic-party-optimism/#comment-469592</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Donal]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 11 May 2016 10:55:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=22475#comment-469592</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/10/politics/primary-results-takeaways/index.html

[Exit polls on both sides of the race showed an electorate hungry for a shake-up in Washington. Among Democrats in West Virginia, only 27% said they want a candidate who continues Obama&#039;s policies. In both states, more than 90% of Republican voters said they were &quot;angry&quot; or &quot;dissatisfied&quot; with the federal government. And more than 6 in 10 Republicans in Nebraska said they felt &quot;betrayed&quot; by GOP politicians.
It continues a trend seen in primaries all year — voters are hungry for change. Even if the parties don&#039;t agree on what change they seek, voters have responded strongly to candidates promising to remake Washington, which could pose a challenge to Clinton in a general election as she seeks to build on Obama&#039;s legacy.]

I see more and more people willing to take a chance on Trump, just to make a change.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/10/politics/primary-results-takeaways/index.html" rel="nofollow ugc">http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/10/politics/primary-results-takeaways/index.html</a></p>
<p>[Exit polls on both sides of the race showed an electorate hungry for a shake-up in Washington. Among Democrats in West Virginia, only 27% said they want a candidate who continues Obama&#8217;s policies. In both states, more than 90% of Republican voters said they were &#8220;angry&#8221; or &#8220;dissatisfied&#8221; with the federal government. And more than 6 in 10 Republicans in Nebraska said they felt &#8220;betrayed&#8221; by GOP politicians.<br />
It continues a trend seen in primaries all year — voters are hungry for change. Even if the parties don&#8217;t agree on what change they seek, voters have responded strongly to candidates promising to remake Washington, which could pose a challenge to Clinton in a general election as she seeks to build on Obama&#8217;s legacy.]</p>
<p>I see more and more people willing to take a chance on Trump, just to make a change.</p>
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		<title>
		By: cosmicomics		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/05/06/beware-democratic-party-optimism/#comment-469591</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[cosmicomics]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 10 May 2016 21:30:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=22475#comment-469591</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[#19
Please see:
http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2016/05/10/west-virginia-democratic-primary/#comment-633144
The links may be of interest to you.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#19<br />
Please see:<br />
<a href="http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2016/05/10/west-virginia-democratic-primary/#comment-633144" rel="nofollow ugc">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2016/05/10/west-virginia-democratic-primary/#comment-633144</a><br />
The links may be of interest to you.</p>
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		<title>
		By: cosmicomics		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/05/06/beware-democratic-party-optimism/#comment-469590</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[cosmicomics]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 10 May 2016 21:25:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=22475#comment-469590</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[#18
I follow American (printed) media closely enough to be aware of voter suppression. My question: how many contested states would it apply to (I can think of Wisconsin and North Carolina), and would that be enough to change what looks like a favorable to Democrats electoral map?]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#18<br />
I follow American (printed) media closely enough to be aware of voter suppression. My question: how many contested states would it apply to (I can think of Wisconsin and North Carolina), and would that be enough to change what looks like a favorable to Democrats electoral map?</p>
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		<title>
		By: Susan Anderson		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/05/06/beware-democratic-party-optimism/#comment-469589</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Susan Anderson]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 10 May 2016 20:16:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=22475#comment-469589</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Of course there are Hillbots. I would probably almost exactly match Donal&#039;s answers. All this is pushing her towards more triangulation, since many Republicans are now promising to vote for her.  I don&#039;t like her position on fracking, or her hawkishness, but I don&#039;t believe her opinions are Republican lite, nor do I accept the Republican narratives. For example, lately her attitude towards Bill&#039;s womanizing problem is misrepresented; she was genuinely deceived and her attitude reversed once she found him out. It&#039;s all very handy for spin.

On climate, I could wish she&#039;d get the message from John Podesta&#039;s ABC Primetime special (which pretty much sunk without a trace) shown here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MDqRpM72Odg]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Of course there are Hillbots. I would probably almost exactly match Donal&#8217;s answers. All this is pushing her towards more triangulation, since many Republicans are now promising to vote for her.  I don&#8217;t like her position on fracking, or her hawkishness, but I don&#8217;t believe her opinions are Republican lite, nor do I accept the Republican narratives. For example, lately her attitude towards Bill&#8217;s womanizing problem is misrepresented; she was genuinely deceived and her attitude reversed once she found him out. It&#8217;s all very handy for spin.</p>
<p>On climate, I could wish she&#8217;d get the message from John Podesta&#8217;s ABC Primetime special (which pretty much sunk without a trace) shown here:<br />
<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MDqRpM72Odg" rel="nofollow ugc">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MDqRpM72Odg</a></p>
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		<title>
		By: jane		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/05/06/beware-democratic-party-optimism/#comment-469588</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[jane]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 10 May 2016 20:09:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=22475#comment-469588</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Thanks for the link.  It makes a couple of good, reassuring points.  Among them is that the polled voters were whiter than the 2012 electorates in those states.  However, in Denmark you may not be aware that in just the past couple of years a huge fraction of American states have passed and are passing burdensome voter-ID and other vote-suppression measures specifically to make it harder for poor and working-class (disproportionately minority) citizens to vote.

To keep minority turnout even equal to what it was in the past, there will need to be a serious volunteer effort to inform the public about the entire process of hoop-jumping required to get proof of citizenship and then state IDs.  Poorer people will need to be provided with transportation to government offices, and financial support for the fees associated with the paperwork.  Otherwise, it won&#039;t happen.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thanks for the link.  It makes a couple of good, reassuring points.  Among them is that the polled voters were whiter than the 2012 electorates in those states.  However, in Denmark you may not be aware that in just the past couple of years a huge fraction of American states have passed and are passing burdensome voter-ID and other vote-suppression measures specifically to make it harder for poor and working-class (disproportionately minority) citizens to vote.</p>
<p>To keep minority turnout even equal to what it was in the past, there will need to be a serious volunteer effort to inform the public about the entire process of hoop-jumping required to get proof of citizenship and then state IDs.  Poorer people will need to be provided with transportation to government offices, and financial support for the fees associated with the paperwork.  Otherwise, it won&#8217;t happen.</p>
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		<title>
		By: cosmicomics		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/05/06/beware-democratic-party-optimism/#comment-469587</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[cosmicomics]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 10 May 2016 19:24:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=22475#comment-469587</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[#14
Is it possible that Trump could win the election? Yes
Is it probable? No
Is it necessary to fight tooth and nail to prevent him from winning? Yes.

Regarding the polls you refer to, please read this:
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/05/trump-leads-in-one-poll-of-oh-dont-freak-out.html

Note that &quot;Trump is struggling to raise money,&quot; and to do that he&#039;s undermining his not beholden to special interests credibility by appealing to the Republican establishment and the party&#039;s donors.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#14<br />
Is it possible that Trump could win the election? Yes<br />
Is it probable? No<br />
Is it necessary to fight tooth and nail to prevent him from winning? Yes.</p>
<p>Regarding the polls you refer to, please read this:<br />
<a href="http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/05/trump-leads-in-one-poll-of-oh-dont-freak-out.html" rel="nofollow ugc">http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/05/trump-leads-in-one-poll-of-oh-dont-freak-out.html</a></p>
<p>Note that &#8220;Trump is struggling to raise money,&#8221; and to do that he&#8217;s undermining his not beholden to special interests credibility by appealing to the Republican establishment and the party&#8217;s donors.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Donal		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/05/06/beware-democratic-party-optimism/#comment-469586</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Donal]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 10 May 2016 17:47:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=22475#comment-469586</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Yeah, it&#039;s a good thing there aren&#039;t any Hillbots. 

Gary Johnson was on This Week, last Sunday, and mentioned a website iSideWith.com. I was worried the answer would always be Gary Johnson, but I answered the questions, and I supposedly side 96% with Sanders, 95% Stein, 88% Clinton and 53% Trump.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yeah, it&#8217;s a good thing there aren&#8217;t any Hillbots. </p>
<p>Gary Johnson was on This Week, last Sunday, and mentioned a website iSideWith.com. I was worried the answer would always be Gary Johnson, but I answered the questions, and I supposedly side 96% with Sanders, 95% Stein, 88% Clinton and 53% Trump.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Susan Anderson		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/05/06/beware-democratic-party-optimism/#comment-469585</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Susan Anderson]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 10 May 2016 17:10:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=22475#comment-469585</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[I am hopeful that once the dust settles after the convention, the insular hatred of Hillary that prevails amongst Bernie fans (I am one, but getting irritated with him and especially with the more extreme of his disciples; he&#039;s not the Messiah) will diminish. Right now they are showing up in droves, and it is sometimes hard to distinguish the genuines from Republican trolls. They promise to stay home, write in, or vote for Jill Stein, and too few of them realize that voting locally and down ticket is vitally important.  They&#039;re the ones that, if they are old enough, didn&#039;t bother to show up in 2014, 2010, and during Clinton&#039;s time.

While I suspect the most of the ones who say they&#039;ll vote for Trump instead of Clinton are trolls, even that is happening.

Bernie&#039;s stubborn one-note righteousness in a good cause is both his strength and his weakness.

No matter how much we all know that Republican operatives are good at their jobs, all too many people buy the merchandise.

One culprit is the internet. It is entirely possible to hang out with fans who encourage each other to dig up dirt on Hillary. There&#039;s just enough truth in their to make the distortion look legitimate. We all know the Clintons didn&#039;t murder Vince Foster, but many of the other memes are sophisticated enough to fit the bias.

In my rough amateur sampling, the number of these bots is larger than we all want to believe.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I am hopeful that once the dust settles after the convention, the insular hatred of Hillary that prevails amongst Bernie fans (I am one, but getting irritated with him and especially with the more extreme of his disciples; he&#8217;s not the Messiah) will diminish. Right now they are showing up in droves, and it is sometimes hard to distinguish the genuines from Republican trolls. They promise to stay home, write in, or vote for Jill Stein, and too few of them realize that voting locally and down ticket is vitally important.  They&#8217;re the ones that, if they are old enough, didn&#8217;t bother to show up in 2014, 2010, and during Clinton&#8217;s time.</p>
<p>While I suspect the most of the ones who say they&#8217;ll vote for Trump instead of Clinton are trolls, even that is happening.</p>
<p>Bernie&#8217;s stubborn one-note righteousness in a good cause is both his strength and his weakness.</p>
<p>No matter how much we all know that Republican operatives are good at their jobs, all too many people buy the merchandise.</p>
<p>One culprit is the internet. It is entirely possible to hang out with fans who encourage each other to dig up dirt on Hillary. There&#8217;s just enough truth in their to make the distortion look legitimate. We all know the Clintons didn&#8217;t murder Vince Foster, but many of the other memes are sophisticated enough to fit the bias.</p>
<p>In my rough amateur sampling, the number of these bots is larger than we all want to believe.</p>
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		<title>
		By: jane		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/05/06/beware-democratic-party-optimism/#comment-469584</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[jane]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 10 May 2016 16:19:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=22475#comment-469584</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[MSN today said that recent polls in the three important swing states of Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida had Clinton and Trump neck and neck - Clinton ahead by just a point or two in two, Trump with a similarly narrow lead in the other.  Clinton had a large lead among women polled, but Trump had a similarly large lead among male voters.  Anyone who is not alarmed by that either has his head in the sand or is a Nazi sympathizer.  By this point, these voters surely already know that he&#039;s a repulsive dishonest violence-loving greedbag.  They will still vote for him.  

If the media finally finds a pair and starts trying to take him down, his followers will just interpret that as &quot;the elites&quot; undercutting someone who says he will look out for the people&#039;s interests rather than the elites.  Partly this is because right-wing media have trained their audience to mindlessly reject facts that don&#039;t fit their ideology (I almost wrote idiology - Freudian slip) and partly it is because mainstream media have spent decades condescending to the working class and ignoring their problems, and made themselves appear useless and untrustworthy.  And now the chickens are coming home to roost.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>MSN today said that recent polls in the three important swing states of Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida had Clinton and Trump neck and neck &#8211; Clinton ahead by just a point or two in two, Trump with a similarly narrow lead in the other.  Clinton had a large lead among women polled, but Trump had a similarly large lead among male voters.  Anyone who is not alarmed by that either has his head in the sand or is a Nazi sympathizer.  By this point, these voters surely already know that he&#8217;s a repulsive dishonest violence-loving greedbag.  They will still vote for him.  </p>
<p>If the media finally finds a pair and starts trying to take him down, his followers will just interpret that as &#8220;the elites&#8221; undercutting someone who says he will look out for the people&#8217;s interests rather than the elites.  Partly this is because right-wing media have trained their audience to mindlessly reject facts that don&#8217;t fit their ideology (I almost wrote idiology &#8211; Freudian slip) and partly it is because mainstream media have spent decades condescending to the working class and ignoring their problems, and made themselves appear useless and untrustworthy.  And now the chickens are coming home to roost.</p>
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