Comments on: After the Primaries, What Next?

By: Brainstorms

Brainstorms — Fri, 06 May 2016 15:36:08 +0000

The “Anti-Vote”: According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, nearly half of American voters who support either Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump for the White House said they will mainly be trying to block the other side from winning.

“This phenomenon is called negative partisanship. If we were trying to maximize the effect, we couldn’t have found better nominees than Trump and Clinton.”

By: Donal

Donal — Thu, 05 May 2016 22:28:50 +0000

http://www.vox.com/2016/5/5/11589262/2016-general-election-is-going-to-suck

By: EpiPete

EpiPete — Thu, 05 May 2016 19:44:22 +0000

@#10
I imagine Hillary’s fallback position is a clear understanding the issues facing the US, and having reasonable ideas about how to address them.

By: Donal

Donal — Thu, 05 May 2016 19:21:03 +0000

For fans of 1776, we have Obnoxious vs Disliked. What I see is that Trump can pivot to being less obnoxious, while Clinton cannot easily become more likable. As Scott Adams noted, Clinton’s campaign thought using her opponent’s name in the slogan Love Trumps Hate was a good idea. They also thought issuing a woman’s card with a restroom symbol of a woman was a good idea. They are awfully arrogant considering that their only advantage is that Trump has played the Tea Party electorate like a fiddle while alarming nearly everyone else. If that advantage diminishes, what is their fallback position?

By: StevoR

StevoR — Thu, 05 May 2016 13:06:57 +0000

Interesting analysis and article here thanks, Greg Laden.

I’m currently feeling glad that is not Cruz and worried that the political joke that is Trump may actually be elected president.

My thoughts are that there’s probably about an 80% chance of Hillary Clnton becoiming president, a 15% chance of Trump becoming POTUS – quite a worry & far too high really -plus a five percent of somebody else throwing both Clinton and Trump out and becoming US President with something else really strange and unexpected happening. I wouldn’t usually give such high odds on that last option but given what’s happened this election so far and the intense divisions, dislikes and chaos swirling around this time..

By: Whomever1

Whomever1 — Thu, 05 May 2016 00:24:11 +0000

Speaking of third parties–I’m guessing this is going to be a really good year for the existing third parties–especially the Libertarians. I understand the Libertarians are having trouble getting on the ballot in Maine, but have qualified in all the other states. And the Greens are on 39 state ballots.

By: zebra

zebra — Wed, 04 May 2016 23:55:33 +0000

So, I have to admit I did not think Trump would be the nominee, and I am finally having doubts about my prediction, but I still think the rogue convention is a reasonable option for the Republicans.

Perhaps the numbers have changed– I have trouble finding a clear tally– but I think Trump may have still not received a majority of Republican votes. So the “establishment” in both parties still pulls in a majority; in his case, the anti-Trump votes have been split among multiple candidates.

What would happen if (most) Trump and Sanders voters stay home? Many of them were not likely voters to begin with, so the question is how the traditional constituencies match up.

I think a Ryan would receive plenty of support on the Republican side, as long as the usurpation was played right. The prospect of losing to a woman after losing to an African American man would be very strong motivation.

By: Brainstorms

Brainstorms — Wed, 04 May 2016 22:21:00 +0000

…forgot to mention that we have Democrats saying that Hillary is not a liberal, and Republicans saying that Trump is not a conservative.

Can we get any more bizarre? The right will vote for the left’s candidate, as the left votes for the right’s candidate. I think this is one election where I’m glad more conservatives vote than the liberals!

By: jane

jane — Wed, 04 May 2016 21:52:45 +0000

I hope you’re right about the floor-mopping. Among at least three possible calamities: notwithstanding the fact that Hillary may be more of a warmonger than Trump, a late-October “terrorist attack” would greatly benefit Trump. Trump knows this. Trump is following Hitler’s playbook to the letter. (I’m currently reading Life and Death in the Third Reich, and Trump’s rhetoric about bringing Us all together, of course excluding Them, is precisely the same as the Nazi philosophy that most Germans found comforting enough to fall in line with.) And Trump has billions of dollars. And Trump is a sociopath.

I sure wish Bernie were going to be the nominee.

By: cosmicomics

cosmicomics — Wed, 04 May 2016 21:12:10 +0000

Re. an independent to thwart Clinton

I imagine that different states have different rules, but at some point in the not too distant future it will no longer be possible for a third party to get on the ballot.

If Sanders is truly interested in making sure that the Republicans don’t get control of the government (and I believe he is), he would distance himself from such efforts.

If the “independent” bid is associated with the Republican Party, there’s a good chance that news of this would get out and backfire.

I haven’t read about Sanders supporters speculating on pro Sanders tickets, but I have read about prominent Republicans who reject Trump thinking about a third party. This seems more likely to me than a pro Sanders ticket in just a few states, and it would hurt Trump far more than Clinton.