If we go by the ‘nations’ theory (either Garreau’s 9 or Woodward’ 11) both agree that California has an overlap of three cultural regions: Ecotopia/Left Coast, Empty Quarter/Far West, and Mexamerica/El Norte. The Democrats in the first two seem to be fairly strongly pro-Sanders, while the third is pro-Clinton.

The eastern Empty Quarter/Far West portion is heavily republican, so despite the fact that the Democrats there are strongly pro-Sanders, that may not translate into a lot of Sander’s votes, so Californina may come down to mainly the Ecotopia/Left Coast pro-Sanders voters and the Mexamerica/El Norte pro-Clnton voters. The Los Angeles area is, as I read the maps, in the Mexamerica/El Norte area, so by population this would give Clinton the edge.

We’ve already established that Dixie, southern Florida, and what Garreau called “Mexamerica” heavily favor Clinton, while New England and “Ecotopia” (aka the Cascadian Republic) favor Sanders. If we think of these as different “nations”, then as you say, it’s not surprising that Greg’s ethnic models need adjustment as the contests move across the map. We wouldn’t assume that white vs. black Englishmen or Frenchmen would vote the same way as Americans of the same races.

Most of the states still to vote are in Garreau’s “Foundry, Breadbasket, and Empty Quarter” regions, the large majority of what coastal elites call Flyover. These are industrial or rural regions with many blue-collar folks who have been crushed by globalization, so I might like to assume that they would vote heavily for Sanders. However, the contests in these regions to date have included solid Clinton and Sanders wins as well as a couple of effective ties. It remains to be seen which way, if at all, they will swing; at this point, an even split means a Clinton win.

Garreau’s model also predicts that California will not be a blowout, as it is shared between three regions and has large population centers belonging to the “Ecotopian” and “Mexamerican” cultures, which may be expected to vote differently.

But as the races moved westward into the area of the country Colin Woodward calls “the far west”, the model has begun to fail. Adding the six states since Ohio (Arizona, Utah, Idaho), Washington, Alaska, and Hawaii) to the twenty-six previous races) increases the rms average error for the known states from about 7.3 percentage points to about 9.2 percentage points, with all six of the more recent states having errors greater than 10 percentage points.

This probably shouldn’t be much a surprise, since this western part of the country is as culturally distinct from the rest of the country as is the South, although for some reason this fact is less commonly recognized.

There is basically no correlation between Clinton’s share of the vote in the primaries and Obama’s share of the vote in 2012 (the correlation is -0.17). I took the 2012 presidential results, and divided the states that have have democratic primaries so far and divided them up into four groups:
Obama won, Clinton won: 7 states (FL, IA, IL, MA, NV, OH, VA)
Obama won, Sanders won: 8 states (CO, HI, ME, MI, MN, NH, VT, WA)
Romney won, Clinton won: 11 states (AL, AR, AZ, GA, LA, MO, MS, NC, SC, TN, TX)
Romney won, Sanders won: 6 states (AK, ID, KS, NE, OK, UT)

With a couple of exceptions (such as AZ and CO) this sorts out most of the south into one group and the west into another group. It is the local culture, not ethnicity, that determines the tendencies of how people vote; ethnicity works to the degree that it correlates with culture. Once one moves out of the south, this correlation breaks down, so the model starts to fail.

Both RealClearPolitics and the New York Times put the delegate counts at Sanders 25, Clinton 9.

AK – Sanders 13, Clinton 3
WA – Sanders 73 Clinton 28
HI – Sanders 16 Clinton 9

Which gives Sanders one more delegate total (102) than your alternate model (101).

It ain’t over til it’s over 🙂