Comments on: Clinton Likely To Win Democratic Party Nomination

By: Bernie Sanders’ Strategy to Win the Nomination – Greg Laden's Blog

Bernie Sanders’ Strategy to Win the Nomination – Greg Laden's Blog — Wed, 23 Mar 2016 16:56:08 +0000

[…] Earlier work I did showed that this strategy has only a small chance of working, because Clinton will in fact win plenty of delegates during this second half of the season, and she has plenty of delegates under her belt now. Bernie just can’t catch up. See this post for details. […]

By: 2016 Democratic US Presidential Candidates - Page 184 - TeakDoor.com - The Thailand Forum

Wed, 23 Mar 2016 05:05:51 +0000

[…] […]

By: Democratic Primaries in Arizona, Utah, and Idaho – Greg Laden's Blog

Democratic Primaries in Arizona, Utah, and Idaho – Greg Laden's Blog — Tue, 22 Mar 2016 15:08:05 +0000

[…] already discussed, Clinton is likely to win the Democratic nomination. Sanders is too far behind to catch up without extraordinary results, as […]

By: jane

jane — Thu, 17 Mar 2016 14:53:15 +0000

I agree 100% with Donal’s fears. First of all, I’m not confident that Hillary can beat Trump, especially if the next conspicuous economic step downward, or act of violence that can be termed terrorism and has white victims, happens shortly before the election. (Trump has money enough to BUY himself a “terrorist attack” – and don’t tell me he’s not already thinking of it. “Reichstag fire” is part of the playbook he’s working from.)

If Hillary does win, the question will be whether four to eight more years of kicking the can down the road for Wall Street’s benefit means that the next pseudo-populist authoritarian we see will actually be running on the National Socialist ticket. Or whether we can get through eight more years of trying to overthrow the government of every country that borders or is friendly to Russia without them deciding they have to do something serious about us before it’s too late. (Yes, her foreign policy will be much less disastrous than that of any remaining Republican candidate – but it’s still disastrous by any objective measure.)

By: Greg Laden

Greg Laden — Thu, 17 Mar 2016 13:44:07 +0000

Here’s the graphic I mentioned, in this post:

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2016/03/17/sanders-vs-clinton-vs-obama-vs-clinton-the-2016-primary-in-context/

By: Greg Laden

Greg Laden — Thu, 17 Mar 2016 12:08:30 +0000

Albatros: “Okay, so how does this campaign compare to the one between Obama and Clinton in 2008. Where was Obama at this point by comparison?”

Good question. I’m working on a graphic. In terms of national polling, Obama passed Clinton in mid February

Obama passed Clinton’s numbers in delegate count at about the same time. In other words, not the same pattern as this year.

By: Donal

Donal — Thu, 17 Mar 2016 11:25:00 +0000

#9, Agree with Vox article that Trump is just a symptom, but I think America’s changing economic landscape is more responsible then the changing social landscape. Essentially, neoconservatives and neoliberals have been laying the seeds of a populist revolt for decades. Trump may fail this year, but if you vote in politicians that continue to hollow out the working class for the benefit of the elites, you are also voting for more dangerous populist challengers in the next election cycle. And consider that this year, one populist challenger was the very principled Sanders. In the next election we may only have a choice between authoritarians on both sides.

By: cosmicomics

cosmicomics — Thu, 17 Mar 2016 10:53:53 +0000

The rise of American authoritarianism
“In South Carolina, a CBS News exit poll found that 75 percent of Republican voters supported banning Muslims from the United States. A PPP poll found that a third of Trump voters support banning gays and lesbians from the country. Twenty percent said Lincoln shouldn’t have freed the slaves…

…the GOP, by positioning itself as the party of traditional values and law and order, had unknowingly attracted what would turn out to be a vast and previously bipartisan population of Americans with authoritarian tendencies.
This trend had been accelerated in recent years by demographic and economic changes such as immigration, which “activated” authoritarian tendencies, leading many Americans to seek out a strongman leader who would preserve a status quo they feel is under threat and impose order on a world they perceive as increasingly alien.
Trump embodies the classic authoritarian leadership style: simple, powerful, and punitive…

…theory: that if social change and physical threats [e.g. Isis] coincided at the same time, it could awaken a potentially enormous population of American authoritarians, who would demand a strongman leader and the extreme policies necessary, in their view, to meet the rising threats.

http://www.vox.com/2016/3/1/11127424/trump-authoritarianism

By: Narad

Narad — Thu, 17 Mar 2016 05:55:21 +0000

^ And/or data dredging. “Clinton likely to win Democratic Party nomination” can be arrived at by simple counting.

By: Narad

Narad — Thu, 17 Mar 2016 05:40:00 +0000

I’ve been updating a model to predict primary and caucus results all along, and the model has done fairly well.

I believe the technical term is "overfitting."